100nl 6max: 97s float flops big draw vs nit

Villain seems pretty tight after a smallish <100 hand sample size. For some reason his AF says n/a in HEM??? He seems like your typical 14/12 nit. My image is laggy.

What type of range does his flop donk represent and what's our plan?

party poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

MP: $155.30 (155.3 bb)
Hero (CO): $151.15 (151.2 bb)
BTN: $24.75 (24.8 bb)
SB: $103 (103 bb)
BB: $102.10 (102.1 bb)
UTG: $97 (97 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with 7 9
UTG folds, MP raises to $4, Hero calls $4, 2 folds, BB calls $3

Flop: ($12.50) 6 T Q (3 players)
BB bets $9, MP folds, Hero ...

His range imo is something like 66,TT, QT + fl draws. He's deffo 3/betting anything better, inc AK possibly AQ. However he probably has a better fl dr, if in fact he does have one. Usually I play this hand aggro and r/r here, but given he's a nit I maybe inclined to call, see if we hit flush, see how it pans out from there. Proceed with caution in this hand I think.

I think there are a lot of pairs under the Q that donk here. It's been my experience that these donk bets are generally monsters (sets in this case) or scared pairs. My default play here would be to raise to ~$30.

I'm not thrilled about raising. I'd like to add KJ and J9 to his range, but my problem is that except for the really weak holdings, I don't see what he's folding when we raise. And if he doesn't fold, we shouldn't raise.

My default play is to call the turn and very often bluff the turn if he checks since, in my experience, this is how people play the hands that they would have folded to a flop raise. Roughly the same amount of money goes in, but we make the bet in with a much, much higher amount of fold equity.

If we get it all-in on this flop, our average equity is going to suck. I like playing strong draws aggressively out of position. In position, the added implied odds make up for so much.

Make a pot sized raise on the flop and call a shove. You have 12 outs to the probable best hand, plus great fold equity. Even if he has a set, you're not dead.

GrantGreen said:

plus great fold equity. Even if he has a set, you're not dead.

Click to expand...

See, that's the thing. This isn't a c-bet from a PFR. This is the BB (who is nitty) donking out. And when a nit cold calls a raise, and then donks the flop, its usually 66 or TT. So I think we have a lot less fold equity than you'd think.

I'd lean towards calling here. Nits usually give us good implied odds, and I'm not willing to destroy those implied odds raising in hopes that he'll fold.

yeah I think flatting is best here, which is what I did. His range just seems so strong donking here.

Surprisingly he showed like the tail-end of his range with QJ.