100nl 6max - 77 OTB

Jagsti

Jagsti

I'm sweet enough!
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Villain is a reg again TAG stats 16/14/2 over 500 hands. He sees me as TAG, but we had some history in a previous hand were he looked me up with the 3rd nut flush when I bluffed the river on a 4 to the flush board.

What range are we looking at here, preferred line on the turn?


pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($109.40)
MP ($100)
Hero (Button) ($99.50)
SB ($100.50)
BB ($139.50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7
spade.gif
, 7
heart.gif

2 folds, Hero raises to $3.50, 1 fold, BB raises to $11, Hero calls $7.50

Flop: ($22.50) 4
spade.gif
, 2
spade.gif
, 10
spade.gif
(2 players)
BB bets $14, Hero calls $14

Turn: ($50.50) 10
diamond.gif
(2 players)
BB bets $30, Hero?

Total pot: $110.50 | Rake: $2
 
zachvac

zachvac

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I'm gonna take a wild guess. You call turn and either river is checked or one of you folds river.

Double barelling on this board though pretty much signals strength. That turn is just about the worst double barell card, yet he still does it. So unless he's leveling you and thinks you'll think it's a bad card for him to fire and fold, I see no reason to call turn here. Personally I'm in favor of folding preflop though. If this guy's bad and you think you can take it from him if you miss your set it's an ok line, but against a solid TAG I don't see this play being all that profitable.

Best case for you he's got overs with a spade, and not that far behind. Worst case you're drawing dead. I fold turn as played. But since you called turn, what's the river action? Or did you raise turn and he folded?
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Unless his 3bet % is through the roof I think folding is really the only play here. We're drawing slim vs a big pair and aren't in great shape vs two overs with a spade. I don't expect too much more in his range except maybe some smaller pairs which are trying to protect against the draw.

Folding pf is an option, though I don't think it's a huge mistake not to. You're in position and are almost getting set mining odds. Once we flat pf though your postflop line looks fine up to the turn.
 
Chris_TC

Chris_TC

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Calling the flop is standard, the turn has to be a fold. You're practically never ahead. He could have something like AK with a spade, but that's only a small part of his range.
 
Jagsti

Jagsti

I'm sweet enough!
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Once we flat pf though your postflop line looks fine up to the turn.

So the turn card changes nothing, and based on his barrell, we've narrowed his range basically to overpairs, sets, flush?
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Well it's not just the hands that beat us (which btw most of his range is made up of imo). There are a decent number of overs+FD hands (and other semibluffs/pure bluffs) that, once double barreling that turn, will often shove the river, and we just can't call. Basically by calling the turn here you're committing yourself to playing for stacks. I mean the guy's double barreling a rag board in a 3bet pot. He's got you beat more than 'most' of the time.
 
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