100nl 6max 3bet pot line deep?

ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 2, 2005
Total posts
13,642
Chips
0
Villain is somewhere around a 28/19/2.5. Same guy from this hand, which I took down against his 55. I've been somewhat aggressive, prob 24/20 or something.

Thoughts on the general line and what our plan is?

party poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

BTN: $189.05 (189.1 bb)
SB: $139.15 (139.2 bb)
Hero (BB): $197.55 (197.6 bb)
UTG: $99.50 (99.5 bb)
MP: $43.45 (43.5 bb)
CO: $130.10 (130.1 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with T
club.gif
8
club.gif

3 folds, BTN raises to $4, SB folds, Hero raises to $14, BTN calls $10

Flop: ($28.50) 9
club.gif
K
club.gif
3
spade.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $19, BTN calls $19

Turn: ($66.50) 8
diamond.gif
(2 players)
Hero ...
 
B

bw07507

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 8, 2007
Total posts
2,219
Chips
0
Nice, I was right about the other hand. So, given this history vs this villain and knowing he will bluff pots I think a ch/shove on this turn would be best since he is most likely to bet if we check and we can fold out all single pair hands with a ch/shove and our equity isn't terrible if he does call. Blah, forgot we were deep. Not sure if ch/shove is the best line deep, but ~100BBs i think it is. Betting and him raising/shoving would be the worst situation so I think I either ch/shove or ch/call turn and reevaluate river. Yea, but basically this type of situation is why i hate 6max, lol.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 2, 2007
Total posts
8,819
Chips
0
Don't you think he's less inclined to play back at us after the first hand where we show up with the goods? Especially since we're running at a pretty TAGgy 24/20.
 
Jagsti

Jagsti

I'm sweet enough!
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 18, 2007
Total posts
5,478
Chips
0
I like your line upto here, this is a situation I find myself in frequently in 6m, oop in a raised pot. Now we have a good draw, but not a great one. Villain has called 3b pf and a decent sized bet on the flop. Do we really think he's folding to a double barrel? Obv we only bet here if we think he can fold. Looking at your prev hand, he likes to call down. His range here is kind of interesting he probably doesn't have a set, as we would expect him to have come over the top by now. He could have better draw, therefore we wont get him to fold. The other option is he could have TP type hands or overpair, we may get him to fold this, but it's debatable.

Usually once I get my cb called here I slow down a little, unless I have the nut draw. I'm inclined to chk/call here and re-evaluate the river. I don't think a bet on the turn is totally horrible, but that is just based on table dynamics for me and whether he has the capacity to fold.
 
Chris_TC

Chris_TC

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 11, 2007
Total posts
925
Chips
0
So, based on that other hand, villain is apparently crazy and pretty bad.
I'm less inclined to run big (semi-)bluffs against bad players for obvious reasons.

This is why I would go with a check/call on the turn, followed by check/fold if we don't improve and check/shove if we hit the flush.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 2, 2005
Total posts
13,642
Chips
0
Well villain's been pretty aggro, but hasn't been a station or anything, so I do like the CRAI option on the turn. Bad doesn't necessarily mean he'll call a lot. And even if he does call with say 9Ts on the flop, he can't really call a big turn bet. I gave up and we checked it down vs his 95s.
 
Jagsti

Jagsti

I'm sweet enough!
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 18, 2007
Total posts
5,478
Chips
0
CRAI this deep is extremely dangerous I think Chuck. I don't mind it for 100bb deep, but he could have us totally drawing dead. I like the way you played it tbh.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 2, 2005
Total posts
13,642
Chips
0
Running some stove numbers here...

Worst case scenario is he's got a set, in which case we're 4:1 dog, but considering how deep we are, the fact that he didn't raise the flop and the fact that it's just not that likely combinatorially, I don't think we see that too often.

Any other FDs we're >2:1 favs.

We're ~2:1 dogs against AK/KQ hands which we have a good chunk of FE against. Plus AK 3bets pf.

I don't see any hands we're really crushed by except the unlikely sets.

100bb deep and I'd be less inclined to crai - we have wayyy less fold equity.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 26, 2007
Total posts
9,218
Chips
0
Wow, so you 3bet with T8 and he calls it with 95? I'll need to seriously adapt the ranges i put villains on when I move up to 100nl. :eek:
 
Jagsti

Jagsti

I'm sweet enough!
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 18, 2007
Total posts
5,478
Chips
0
There are still some fl drs ahead of us, yes it's unlikely to be a set, but not impossible. My point about the crai 100bbs deep, is looking at it negatively, ie we lose only a max of 100bb, whilst still having some FE if you see what I mean.

This deep, I just don't like the CRAI.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 2, 2005
Total posts
13,642
Chips
0
Wow, so you 3bet with T8 and he calls it with 95? I'll need to seriously adapt the ranges i put villains on when I move up to 100nl. :eek:

umm his call isn't exactly standard :p

@jay: what flush draws have us beat?
 
Jagsti

Jagsti

I'm sweet enough!
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 18, 2007
Total posts
5,478
Chips
0
I take it you mean what fl dr has us beat that would call the 3bet pf.

So in 6mx, otb I will call with all kinds of shite depending on table. I could easily call here with AQs, AJs sometimes even QJs. Granted I would play these hands differently than villain post flop, but he is inclined to call, from the previous hand you posted, and from his stats.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 2, 2005
Total posts
13,642
Chips
0
Well remember we've paired our 8 on the turn, giving us the best hand against all of the above. We're pretty strong favs over them.
 
Jagsti

Jagsti

I'm sweet enough!
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 18, 2007
Total posts
5,478
Chips
0
Sorry chuck, I know that m8, I meant if we CRAI and we hit our flush, we may be drawing dead to it, comprendez :p
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 2, 2005
Total posts
13,642
Chips
0
whaa? If we get 9Ts AI on a 9c8s2s2c board as a 70/30 favourite over AKs, why do we bother thinking about how dead we are if he hits his flush?

Just like with this hand, we're a favourite over FDs and have good FE too...
 
Jagsti

Jagsti

I'm sweet enough!
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 18, 2007
Total posts
5,478
Chips
0
I think our differences on this hand stem from our hand ranges. Our equity could be in the region of 55/45. If you put villain on that range and you think you have 70% equity, then it's a no brainer. The question is really is do we have FE? I'm not so sure. My personal preference is if I'm CRAI I wanna be drawing to the nuts.
 
Chris_TC

Chris_TC

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 11, 2007
Total posts
925
Chips
0
Wow, so you 3bet with T8 and he calls it with 95? I'll need to seriously adapt the ranges i put villains on when I move up to 100nl. :eek:
200BB deep, you can call 3-bets more loosely, and hands like suited connectors and one-gappers gain A TON of value.
95s however is a very loose call, not indicative of the average player.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 2, 2005
Total posts
13,642
Chips
0
:fight:

Ok his overall hand range is pretty debatable, we can agree on that. I think you're just wrong though even considering that we're not drawing to the nuts. It would be an issue if we didn't have the best hand against those bigger draws, but we have a significant edge over those specific hands. With regards to the FD, you're debating whether or not to get our hand in as a 70/30 favourite (with some FE) vs a hand like AJc vs flipping the situation and giving him a worse draw than T8c - getting our money in as an 80/20 with AJc against 65c for example. The only difference is that you'll be making slightly more on average. Both plays are still hugely +EV regardless how often he calls (or how little FE we have).

Regarding his whole range, we can ignore the fact that he floated with 95s since we don't know this at the time, but we do know he's a 28/19, and that kind of player will usually float the flop pretty wide. He'll float KJ+, maybe KT, a few 9s, pocket pairs QQ-TT, 88-??, and occasionally a complete float with JT or something.

bah, I just tried using combolator to see what the ranges would look like but it didn't work. I dunno, I just feel like since we have pretty strong FE against KT+, aren't seeing sets too often and are clearly ahead of FDs, we can CRAI this turn very profitably.
 
Jagsti

Jagsti

I'm sweet enough!
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 18, 2007
Total posts
5,478
Chips
0
Hey Chuck, I'm not saying im right your wrong. I'm just giving you my views on how I think I would play it. Interestingly as a paradox, I dont have a problem with a CRAI 100bbs deep, which is weird. Maybe that's a huge leak with my deep stack play I dunno. Maybe its the psychological affect of deep stack and not looking at it from purely the maths point of view.

Also looking at it now, do you think you should have CRAI?
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 26, 2007
Total posts
9,218
Chips
0
well, you can't CRAI if villain won't bet...
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 2, 2005
Total posts
13,642
Chips
0
Hey Chuck, I'm not saying im right your wrong. I'm just giving you my views on how I think I would play it. Interestingly as a paradox, I dont have a problem with a CRAI 100bbs deep, which is weird. Maybe that's a huge leak with my deep stack play I dunno. Maybe its the psychological affect of deep stack and not looking at it from purely the maths point of view.

Also looking at it now, do you think you should have CRAI?

Well that's fine, I was just explaining why I thought your reasoning was flawed. Mine could be too. I suck deep too (wow, that's what she said), which is why I posted this hand. I guess if I'm unsure how to play past the turn when I get floated, I should probably avoid 3betting hands like these against floaty type players.

tbh I like all of the options on the turn except check-folding. Check-calling is fine, but a little soft. Double barreling is good since he'll be floating fairly wide, but tbh I just didn't want to get raised on the turn and be even more lost than I already was. CRAI turn is super sexy if you ask me. Very high-variance but I think it's very profitable too.

well, you can't CRAI if villain won't bet...

Well he won't always have 95s either...
 
Chris_TC

Chris_TC

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 11, 2007
Total posts
925
Chips
0
I dunno, I just feel like since we have pretty strong FE against KT+, aren't seeing sets too often and are clearly ahead of FDs, we can CRAI this turn very profitably.
He's not going to fold a King after he bets it. I'd never give him credit for that (55 vs. JJ suggests that he doesn't know what showdown value is and/or know the difference between a bluff and value bet -> i.e. he's terrible).
Basically, if he bets $45 and you shove, you need to win the hand about 59% of the time just to break even, either by making him fold or by winning a showdown.

Against a strong opponent, check-raising all-in is the line I'd pick btw.
 
Stick66

Stick66

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 10, 2005
Total posts
6,374
Chips
0
If I posted a hand that got this many responses 3 days later, I post some every day.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 26, 2007
Total posts
9,218
Chips
0
CRAI turn is super sexy if you ask me. Very high-variance but I think it's very profitable too.

Well he won't always have 95s either...

CRAI turn is super sexy against villains who like to float your cbets. This particular villain doesn't seem sophisticated enough for that.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 2, 2005
Total posts
13,642
Chips
0
Floating doesn't have to be sophisticated. Or rather he doesn't have to be sophisticated to float. He can have TT here and think he's still best. He can have a flush draw. He can have JT and say to himself "I have a draw, plus he could give up". He could have 95s and call for no reason...

I dunno, it may be overkill against a guy this bad. I do agree he won't fold kings all that often (ie probably not the 'required' %59 if Chris' math is correct), but there are still a ton of other hands in his range.
 
Top