[100NL 6max] 2 pair vs fish deep

B

bw07507

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Probably could just check this preflop, but villain had limp/folded the button a couple times when I raised him earlier.

I have been ~21/18/3
Villain here is 33/7/1.6 with a 40% turn Aggression freq and 30% ch/r turn over 125 hands.

poker stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

Hero (BB): $173.75 (173.8 bb)
MP: $145.60 (145.6 bb)
CO: $182.45 (182.5 bb)
BTN: $158 (158 bb)
SB: $131.40 (131.4 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with 4
spade.gif
5
spade.gif

2 folds, BTN calls $1, SB folds, Hero raises to $5, BTN calls $4

Flop: ($10.50) J
club.gif
3
club.gif
4
diamond.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $7, BTN calls $7

Turn: ($24.50) 5
diamond.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $18, BTN raises to $66, Hero ?
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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The sample size for turn play is obviously going to be a bit weird, but it looks a lot like he likes making moves on the turn. Given your history, and that he's limp/folded a couple of times on the button earlier, you also have to up the likelyhood of him doing this with a weaker hand than average. I don't think you can fold two pair anywhere, since the only thing you're really worried about is a wheel and a set, and there's quite a few combos of top pair he might convince himself is good on this turn.

So how do we get the money in?

I doubt that this is air. Naked bluffs shouldn't be in his range too often, even if he is getting sick of you. They tend to fight back preflop or on the flop when they wanna do the **** you-raise. And flushdraws don't play like this very often either, since the people who are capable of raising flush draws prefer to do it on the flop. Once he just calls the flop, he's calling again with the flush draw, hoping to stack you on the river.

So that leaves a gazillion different overpairs and jacks, 8 combos of sets, and 16 combos of wheels, if we think A2 is in his range, and I'd say that it is.

I just ship it in and shrug it off when it's the wheel. Sets are very rare, given that his second most probable set (combinatorically) is JJ, and I'd expect him to raise preflop with that most of the time, leaving really only 33 to make sense of the sets, and a wheel is five times as likely as 33, so...

Yeah, if he has a hand that beats us, it's the straight. At least we have four outs to the nuts when we shove and he snap calls us, then.

I don't see another way of playing it. I don't think I like calling, because what are we going to do on the river? Check to induce and let him get away cheaply with his AJ? Check/raise if he bets small? Donk? What do we do if a club rolls off? Or a deuce? Etc. He has position, and I'd really like to end that advantage for him immediately.

If we shove and he folds, we'll hate life for not letting him bluff the river, but really... What hand is he going to bluff the river with after we call a massive raise on the turn? He'd have to have churchbell-sized stones to bet the river after being called on the turn.

Summary: I like shoving the turn after he raises.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Um ya, my instincts say shove kind of grudgingly. I'll trust FP's calculatationals and assume shoving is the best play.
 
gamedemon

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Maybe I am too passive... I agree with FP's analysis, but since I am first to act, I call the raise and see what comes on the River.

If there is no danger on the River, then I shove and hope for the call. If he folds, then he may have folded your Shove on the Turn as well, so you didn't lose any chips.

If a Club or an Ace comes up, then you have a chance to re-evaluate. However, given how much each of you has put in the pot, if you check the River, he will shove oor will check it down as well.
 
B

bw07507

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The sample size for turn play is obviously going to be a bit weird, but it looks a lot like he likes making moves on the turn. Given your history, and that he's limp/folded a couple of times on the button earlier, you also have to up the likelyhood of him doing this with a weaker hand than average. I don't think you can fold two pair anywhere, since the only thing you're really worried about is a wheel and a set, and there's quite a few combos of top pair he might convince himself is good on this turn.

So how do we get the money in?

I doubt that this is air. Naked bluffs shouldn't be in his range too often, even if he is getting sick of you. They tend to fight back preflop or on the flop when they wanna do the **** you-raise. And flushdraws don't play like this very often either, since the people who are capable of raising flush draws prefer to do it on the flop. Once he just calls the flop, he's calling again with the flush draw, hoping to stack you on the river.

So that leaves a gazillion different overpairs and jacks, 8 combos of sets, and 16 combos of wheels, if we think A2 is in his range, and I'd say that it is.

I just ship it in and shrug it off when it's the wheel. Sets are very rare, given that his second most probable set (combinatorically) is JJ, and I'd expect him to raise preflop with that most of the time, leaving really only 33 to make sense of the sets, and a wheel is five times as likely as 33, so...

Yeah, if he has a hand that beats us, it's the straight. At least we have four outs to the nuts when we shove and he snap calls us, then.

I don't see another way of playing it. I don't think I like calling, because what are we going to do on the river? Check to induce and let him get away cheaply with his AJ? Check/raise if he bets small? Donk? What do we do if a club rolls off? Or a deuce? Etc. He has position, and I'd really like to end that advantage for him immediately.

If we shove and he folds, we'll hate life for not letting him bluff the river, but really... What hand is he going to bluff the river with after we call a massive raise on the turn? He'd have to have churchbell-sized stones to bet the river after being called on the turn.

Summary: I like shoving the turn after he raises.

Definitely the best analysis I have read in quite some time. Thanks for the response. Wish i could think like that in the heat of the moment, lol.
 
beechleaf

beechleaf

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Im all in here since I have the best hand He most likely has A/J or KJ or he on a flush draw maybe even JQ J10 but he only has top pair least thats the way i see it
 
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