100nl 6m TPTK vs a nit

joos

joos

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poker stars $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG: $32.00
Hero (CO): $145.05
BTN: $162.85
SB: $116.10
BB: $116.25

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with A K
1 fold, Hero raises to $3, 1 fold, SB calls $2.50, BB calls $2

Flop: ($9.00) 9 K 8 (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $6.00, SB raises to $23, BB folds, Hero ?

I have been 21/19. Villain is 13/10/1.5 over 100 hands. Vs anyone else i shove and fistpump but i dont know if villain is doing this with combo draw. I feel like I am playing full ring here when he has stats like that. Still standard to just shove vs his sb range?
 
Jagsti

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Wow, he's certainly nitty. He probably does this with sets, 2pr type hands, and most draws and combo's. Not sure he does this with the likes of KQ, KJ, or the likes, so against this particular villain I may be inclined to ditch this, but then I'd be a nit!
 
BelgoSuisse

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You're only ahead of his range if it includes weaker draws. If it's just TPTK, sets, two pairs and combo draws, you're better ditch it right now.

Without a read on how he plays his weak and strong draws, and given his preflop stats, i'd be tempted to just fold here.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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I think the more interesting question at hand is whether or not to bet the flop at all. I vote "no."
 
ChuckTs

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What's your reasoning for checking flop?
 
BelgoSuisse

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I think the more interesting question at hand is whether or not to bet the flop at all. I vote "no."

I was gonna write "why?", but in retrospect, i'll just say "i agree"... :D
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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I'd be interested in seeing the 3-bet-percentages for the SB and BB, but for now: Versus a typical reg in the BB we know a thing or two about both their ranges:

1. A nitty SB calls in the SB to set-mine.
2. The BB would have 3-bet/squeezed all his big aces. He doesn't have top pair.

So when we bet, we end up with this result: The SB will fold virtually everything except for sets (from which we gain nothing except 8% fold equity in a small pot) and we're not getting much value from BB, either. He may check/raise us with a flushdraw or a straight draw, but we're not happy getting it in versus him. Checking back the flop gives us the opportunity to see what they'll do on the turn and keeps the pot small. We're not going to win a big pot with AK versus two decent players on an ace-high flop unless one of them decides to run a big bluff. In that case, it's simply better to check back the flop and give them the rope to try it.

Betting to protect from the draws is also not great since we're not protecting anything. With our hand we're offering implied odds for them to call with flushdraws and OESDs anyway, and keeping the pot small for when they hit is probably of higher priority for us. Besides, they might check/raise us with a strong/combo draw, and that's going to leave us in a huge pickle.
 
F Paulsson

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... and what Belgo said. :)
 
ChuckTs

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All good points, I like.

There's a difference to how regs will react to different players though too. One hand that comes to mind is where I was isolating a fish like crazy, then a reg decided to flat me one hand with JJ. Then he stacked a flop exactly like this (I held KQ). Not that that happens all the time, but my point is that in my shoes I don't see a big problem stacking here since I often see bluffs, weaker draws and weaker top pairs. This guy's pretty tight though and I'm probably just overestimating how often he'll play back.

Good points guys, I almost always bet a flop like this.
 
F Paulsson

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I'd need to know that the player I was up against was laggy in order to be willing to play for stacks in a spot like this. Clearly a lot of our value in this hand comes from the other guy trying to bluff us, but then I think the argument for checking back is even stronger.

Two notes on checking back top pair like this: It needs to be an A/K/Q that I paired, because I'm not happy about giving free cards to 6-outers. Not primarily because I worry that they HAVE the 6-outer but because my action will freeze up if one peels off, either because I get scared, or because they do.

Secondly, checking back top pair needs to be balanced with sometimes betting it, or we will get raised on ace-high flops every time we bet by the more observant regs. But we don't need to make that distinction when we're 3-handed, because multiway bluffs are more rare.
 
joos

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i think checking back the flop would work better in a HU pot. I dont think I ever wanna check this back in a multiway pot on a pretty wet board.
 
F Paulsson

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Why not? What would happen, vs. what ranges and how will that affect your profit?
 
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