re: Poker & 100nl 6m TPTK vs a nit
I'd be interested in seeing the 3-bet-percentages for the SB and BB, but for now: Versus a typical reg in the BB we know a thing or two about both their ranges:
1. A nitty SB calls in the SB to set-mine.
2. The BB would have 3-bet/squeezed all his big aces. He doesn't have top pair.
So when we bet, we end up with this result: The SB will fold virtually everything except for sets (from which we gain nothing except 8% fold equity in a small pot) and we're not getting much value from BB, either. He may check/raise us with a flushdraw or a straight draw, but we're not happy getting it in versus him. Checking back the flop gives us the opportunity to see what they'll do on the turn and keeps the pot small. We're not going to win a big pot with AK versus two decent players on an ace-high flop unless one of them decides to run a big bluff. In that case, it's simply better to check back the flop and give them the rope to try it.
Betting to protect from the draws is also not great since we're not protecting anything. With our hand we're offering implied odds
for them to call with flushdraws and OESDs anyway, and keeping the pot small for when they hit is probably of higher priority for us. Besides, they might check/raise us with a strong/combo draw, and that's going to leave us in a huge pickle.