$100NL 6-max: Reg donks low flop 170bb's deep in 3-bet pot, checks turn...

I hate playing over-pairs 150+ bb's deep in 3-bet pots when villain is getting odds to set-mine. I also hate donk bets. So yeah, I absolutely hate hate hate this spot. Is this a simple bet/fold on the turn? Or should I be checking this back to induce more bluff action from him/save money when he has a set?

Stats on villain 19/14/35%(2.9) over 168 hands
He has folded to 3-bets 2 out of 4 times.

CO: $196.50 (196.5 bb)
Hero (BTN): $172.20 (172.2 bb)
SB: $68 (68 bb)
BB: $174.95 (175 bb)
MP: $243.40 (243.4 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with K♦ K♥
MP raises to $3.50, CO folds, Hero raises to $12, 2 folds, MP calls $8.50

Flop: ($25.50) 5♠ 8♦ 2♠ (2 players)
MP bets $12, Hero calls $12

Turn: ($49.50) 2♣ (2 players)
MP checks, Hero.....

Well if he has a set, I'm pretty sure he's gonna bet it on the turn after leading the flop. So for me betting the turn is my preferred line as giving him a free card is probably tantamount to a criminal offence in 6max.

c/r-ing turn would be a sort of weird line with a set after donking flop small. then again, he would have boated up on the turn so maybe he goes into OMG SLOWPLAY mode and checks since he doesn't care about the spade draw. that would still be sort of dumb, but i guess some people think that way

it's really hard to imagine you're ever getting bluff-raised, so it seems safe enough to bet/fold. i wouldn't make it too big though. and, well, i totally don't mind checking back the turn either. free cards are really not that big of a deal here. it's not like he has 67 or stuff like that in his range. just the occasional spade draw. often you'll get more value from some of his small and medium pairs that would fold turn but will call river once you check behind, putting you on AK or whatever

so my unexciting answer is that i'll mix it up a little depending on flow, my image, past hands, specific things i think about him, little micro-factors, whatever. i don't really feel like either play is superior to the other here

i would tend to check turn behind and call a river bet / bet a river check. That's the low variance approach and it does get maximum value from a huge portion of his range that is small/medium pocket pairs that missed the flop.

If we bet turn and he raises, we're kind of facing a weird situation. He could have a boat, but he could be going for the super aggressive line with a flush draw or even a hand like AK (unlikely, but it happens). And when i don't know what i would do when raised, i don't bet.

combuboom said:

it's really hard to imagine you're ever getting bluff-raised, so it seems safe enough to bet/fold.

Click to expand...

If I was going for a b/3b line with a nut flush draw on the flop, that's exactly what I'd do on the turn. Check, hope I get a free card, but check/raise if my opponent bets. I play sets that way too, sometimes.

I mostly play this like Belgo, unless my opponent is spazzy. If he currently beat us, we're drawing to two outs, and if we're ahead, he has a flushdraw some of the time and two outs most of the rest of the time. If he's shown tendencies to go for big bluffs, I bet the turn with the intention of getting it in and expect to be shown a weaker hand very often.

but you wouldn't bet $12 on the flop to b3b, that's not a great amount given stacks. so clearly this guy isn't you. if he does have a spade draw, his flop bet suggests he doesn't want to build a huge pot, but try to hit it without too much expense. and i just rarely see the donk-flop-small, check/raise turn line with a draw, particularly in a 3bet pot. most players aren't that ambitious imo. especially when the board pairs and they reason that their draw just got worse, not better. i think it's a pretty minor concern. particularly if you don't bet very large, which would be my recommendation if you do bet