$1000 NLHE Full Ring: River bet vs famous pro w/ 3rd nut?

Weregoat

Weregoat

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 18, 2009
Total posts
665
Chips
0
So I ended up playing quite a few hands with Matt Affleck at the Bike, he's in town for the WPT Legends of Poker Main Event, and had just flown in and was at the Bike for a tournament, which I played in. He must've busted out. I don't know much about him other than a) he's got a lot more money than me, and b) he had a bad beat.
Well after the tournament I decide to mess around a little bit in the 5-10 game he's sitting in, uncapped buy-in, effective stacks are $1300.
I decide to mix it up a little bit on this hand.
Hero is CO with Kh6h.
UTG+1 limps, 3 folds, villain calls, I raise to $35, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, villain calls.
Pot: $145. Flop is KcKsTd rainbow.
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, villain checks, hero bets $85.
BB folds, UTG+1 folds, villain calls.
Pot: $315. Turn is Ts.
Villain checks, hero checks.
Pot: $315. River is Jh.
Villain bets $300.
Hero: ???
My thoughts: There is an argument here for everythign except folding. Perhaps I'm playing this pot a little timidly, as I don't have much information about my opponent.
This just seems like a spot where it's easy to get in a jam with a loose re-raise. I'm already fortunate enough to have walked into the third nut with a garbage hand like K6 when I was just messing around to begin with and stumbled into a big hand.
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
please bet the turn.

I'm already fortunate enough to have walked into the third nut with a garbage hand like K6 when I was just messing around to begin with and stumbled into a big hand.

This line of thinking isn't helpful. Preflop is fine, if anything I'd probably raise larger. Your decision on the river has nothing to do with whether or not you have a "garbage hand" preflop but rather your equity on this street vs. the range of hands he gets here with. You realize you are behind precisely 4 combos in a hand where he picked off a cbet and you checked the turn?

Calling is OKish but I'd raise to $750.
 
Last edited:
cardriverx

cardriverx

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 5, 2010
Total posts
1,441
Awards
1
Chips
0
yeah why dont you bet that turn?
 
JamesDaBear

JamesDaBear

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 13, 2008
Total posts
533
Awards
1
Chips
1
Raise more pre. Good bet on the flop. I don't mind the check on the turn. Definitely raise the river and hope he looks you up with ace-high or a ten. No reason to be timid with Matt, as he's likely to be just posturing as have a ten. he's very likely to be making a play there when you check behind on the turn. I can see the merit of a smaller raise, but there's a chance you can get a shove called if you look like you're bluffing the river. If he has air, there's no chance he calls you anyway.
 
Jurn8

Jurn8

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 3, 2008
Total posts
5,348
Chips
0
yeah i dont mind the check back either, i probs jam if hes a station and raise to like 680-700 and may shove retardly as an aggro monkey
 
Weregoat

Weregoat

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 18, 2009
Total posts
665
Chips
0
Thanks. I felt like he wasn't calling a raise with a T, and he was 3-betting with KJ, TT, or a naked case king.
I checked the turn because now he's ahead of AA, QQ, JJ, and want him to bet the river. I just don't see him calling a raise with a hand I beat, and my hand doesn't hold up well to a re-raise, and I'd be pretty much forced to call.
Thanks for the insight.
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
you realize he's never going to have quads, right? he would raise TT 100% and probably KJ close to 100%. His range is probably capped at like QJ/JT on this board.
 
Weregoat

Weregoat

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 18, 2009
Total posts
665
Chips
0
@Baudib1, I was worried about KJ. His actual holdings in this hand were stronger than KJ preflop.
Admittedly I played the hand timidly. I was rather happy to win a $900 pot with K6, and it seemed like I missed a value raise on the river.
I mainly didn't want to get caught up overplaying the hand, as that can really hurt.
This was basically a shot at a higher game than I've played lately, and didn't want to commit a decent portion of my bankroll to a pot with K6 when the board hit his range better than it did mine. At my usual stakes, I guess this is a raise spot about 80% of the time.
Guess I answered my own question there. Raise.
 
jbbb

jbbb

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 24, 2010
Total posts
1,384
Chips
0
Admittedly I played the hand timidly. I was rather happy to win a $900 pot with K6, and it seemed like I missed a value raise on the river.

I don't understand this part. It sounds like you're being money scared. Not raising a full house on the river because 'the pot is big enough already' just means you shouldn't be playing 1000NL in the first place.

Also about winning big pots with K6s. If you feel like you don't deserve to win big pots there's no point playing it to start. 'I've won enough, it's a crap preflop hand anyway' isn't really a good thing to think. Play it and when you hit get max value or playing it in the first place is -EV due to the times you won't hit (and can't get them to fold).
 
Weregoat

Weregoat

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 18, 2009
Total posts
665
Chips
0
I don't understand this part. It sounds like you're being money scared. Not raising a full house on the river because 'the pot is big enough already' just means you shouldn't be playing 1000NL in the first place.
Money scared is probably right. But possibly burned, and certainly uncertain of how to play to a re-raise on the river.
I played a hand very similar to this one recently, where I had AK on a board of AA8, turn 8, river J. By the time we got to river I ended up losing a gigantic pot to AJ, because I was in position, raised his bet, then he put the pressure on me.
Admittedly, I don't have much experience with hands like these, which is why I'm here asking for help. I don't want to lose 150 BBs+ every time I have the third nuts just because I have a full house when somebody binks their kicker.
Here is my thinking though, and tell me what you think.
I don't think he's calling a raise with a T often enough., and when I get raised I'm in a tough spot. Without a background on the opponent, it's hard to say.
So the times he does call me with a T (which I would try not to, myself, but perhaps it's unavoidable to some players), I obviously stand to further increase my EV.
The times he raises me, he either raises as a bluff (perhaps with a T, perhaps with QJ, who knows), I can call and make more money. Or I can fold, which has a very poor expected value for this hand. I think against a good player playing conservative poker I'm not going to run into this situation very often. Against looser players, there is obvious value to a raise, as well as tilted players, and bad players...)
He could also raise with the same hand. AK, KQ, KT and down. If I call the raise, we chop the pot.
He could also raise with a better hand. I'd have a hell of a time figuring him for TT here, the way he played the hand, but KJ could be possible (especially if he played it the way he did because he figured me for AK or KQ) and I'm either going to have to call a reraise or laydown the third nut. A weakness in my game is that I can't make big laydowns in these headsup spots.
A good while back FPaulson had a good post though, don't be afraid to make a bet where if you get raised you're going to have a tough decision. Make the bet, then if you get raised, consider where you're at. Which I take to mean I should raise in this spot, then if I get re-raised consider folding.
Perhaps I should consider that advice, and if I get 3-bet on the river, re-evaluate with that information, but at the very least raise and hope he calls with a hand I'm beating.
 
jbbb

jbbb

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 24, 2010
Total posts
1,384
Chips
0
Consider this from villians point of view. You've played the hand pretty passively and/or deceptively depending on which way you look at it. Villian sees:
Hero raises pre
Hero makes a small c-bet in position when checked around to
Hero checks back turn in position

So far you've only shown real strength preflop (cbets are standard) and villian probably thinks he can get you off a wide variety of hands with a big bet on the river. Maybe he's putting you on aces or queens possibly, or even a ten, and wants to push you off by repping the full house.
He could laydown a T to your raise, but theres a good chance he's calling
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
The more I think about this the more I'm never ever folding. If we raise the river we should leave enough room behind to induce him to bluff shove -- he's capable of it.

Your hand is so under-repped it's not even funny. I would expect him to check-raise any Kx on the flop. There are essentially 0 (not literally 0, but probably like 2-3) combos that we are beaten by.

We lose a ton of value, as FP referred to, when we flat call monsters for fear of raises/check-raises.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 2, 2005
Total posts
13,642
Chips
0
Eeeeeeeeeasy river raise as played.

Bet turn. It's obvious what you have, but a leveling, thinking player will think you can be bluffing and will either bluffcatch his ace-high gutshots or bluff raise you with something else some non-zero % of the time. He's also never folding a ten.

Just bet/bet/bet.

As for being afraid of a reraise, think of it this way:

You have a theoretical hand that beats %95 of your opponents range. That %5 of the time you're beat you get raised. Why the hell would you ever be afraid of that raise?

Bet/bet/bet, never fold.
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
I'm interested in hearing what Affleck had to say after the hand, if anything.
 
JamesDaBear

JamesDaBear

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 13, 2008
Total posts
533
Awards
1
Chips
1
via twitter: Matthew Affleck
won $1062 playing 5/10 No Limit Texas Holdem at The bike. @PokerIncome #fb
28 Aug
 
Top