re: Poker & $1000 NLHE Full Ring: River bet vs famous pro w/ 3rd nut?
Originally Posted by jbbb
I don't understand this part. It sounds like you're being money scared. Not raising a full house on the river because 'the pot is big enough already' just means you shouldn't be playing 1000NL in the first place.
Money scared is probably right. But possibly burned, and certainly uncertain of how to play to a re-raise on the river.
I played a hand very similar to this one recently, where I had AK on a board of AA8, turn 8, river J. By the time we got to river I ended up losing a gigantic pot to AJ, because I was in position, raised his bet, then he put the pressure on me.
Admittedly, I don't have much experience with hands like these, which is why I'm here asking for help. I don't want to lose 150 BBs+ every time I have the third nuts just because I have a full house when somebody binks their kicker.
Here is my thinking though, and tell me what you think.
I don't think he's calling a raise with a T often enough., and when I get raised I'm in a tough spot. Without a background on the opponent, it's hard to say.
So the times he does call me with a T (which I would try not to, myself, but perhaps it's unavoidable to some players), I obviously stand to further increase my EV.
The times he raises me, he either raises as a bluff (perhaps with a T, perhaps with QJ, who knows), I can call and make more money. Or I can fold, which has a very poor expected value
for this hand. I think against a good player playing conservative poker I'm not going to run into this situation very often. Against looser players, there is obvious value to a raise, as well as tilted players, and bad players...)
He could also raise with the same hand. AK, KQ, KT and down. If I call the raise, we chop the pot.
He could also raise with a better hand. I'd have a hell of a time figuring him for TT here, the way he played the hand, but KJ could be possible (especially if he played it the way he did because he figured me for AK or KQ) and I'm either going to have to call a reraise or laydown the third nut. A weakness in my game is that I can't make big laydowns in these headsup spots.
A good while back FPaulson had a good post though, don't be afraid to make a bet where if you get raised you're going to have a tough decision. Make the bet, then if you get raised, consider where you're at. Which I take to mean I should raise in this spot, then if I get re-raised consider folding.
Perhaps I should consider that advice, and if I get 3-bet on the river, re-evaluate with that information, but at the very least raise and hope he calls with a hand I'm beating.