$1000 NLHE Full Ring: Nut flush draw, top 2 pair vs all in on the turn

J

jfkingchan

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Hi guys, would really appreciate some comments on the following hand:

Hero: Stack: ~$1600

Villain: Stack: ~ $1200

Game just started, hero has zero read on villain.

Villain raised UTG + 2 to $30, Hero called with AJo (Ace of club, jack of spade) right behind him. One more caller from the BB.

Flop came J 6 10 all clubs. Villain led out $80, Hero raised to $200, BB folded, Villain smoothed.

Turn came an ace of diamond. Villain checked, Hero bet $300, Villain shoved.
??? Hero have to call for around 790 to a pot of 1760.

Hero tanked for a long time before he called and get shown 78c. River bricked and hero lost a big pot. In retrospect, should hero fold on the turn? Hero didn't put villain on a flush because he felt like the villain would have raised on the flop to protect against the exact type of hand hero had, a big club.

Would appreciate any comments!
 
loafes

loafes

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I would think you had to call here. At the very least you're drawing to a boat or and the nut flush, then again I dont play anywhere near 1K NL
 
JCgrind

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cooler. nh wp.

with the action the way it went, id have villain on AxKc or KcQx like, every day here. i think his line is super awkward for his hand
 
Mr Sandbag

Mr Sandbag

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Fold.

Your two pair is beat. Not many players will shove on such a wet board without a big hand. The question now is whether or not you have the pot odds to draw out to a flush or boat, and you don't.
 
M

micromoi

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it is hard to call there u have at this point 800$ behind u have to be right 1out of 4 times. u r against it is a set broadway or a flush, u dont have that much outs for a call.
 
H

Henreiman

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Unless you have a read on V that he's capable of making huge moves against a solid range (which you don't, as you say), this is a fold. Can't see him ever shoving here with less than top two beat unless it's AxKc exactly. And you're not getting odds to call drawing to the boat or NF
 
N

nidal55

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if this guy is tight u can fold pre.post u have a monster. u dont have to raise otf since u have top with backup equity.but its top two now so its a snap there got coolered life goes on;)
 
cardriverx

cardriverx

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I don't hate folding river but I'm pretty sure calling is the play. Mathematically it is a slight fold if you are 100% that you are drawing to flush/boat but like JC said he could still have hands like AxKc which you have crushed.
 
JCgrind

JCgrind

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I don't hate folding river but I'm pretty sure calling is the play. Mathematically it is a slight fold if you are 100% that you are drawing to flush/boat but like JC said he could still have hands like AxKc which you have crushed.

^ thank you.

everyone else, my god. how is this a fold ever
 
Aces2w1n

Aces2w1n

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GII on the turn all day everyday I could have 10 dollars could 10mil... I would still make the same play.
 
G

Guru44

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You are never folding this hand IMO. Im not sure a raise on the flop is necessary because it doesn't seem like you have a hand that needs isolation. I do agree with your logic of the villain protecting a smaller flush. I'm surprised he chose to play his hand that way. With that, AxKc being possible (which you crush), and you having a draw if necessary, you should not be folding.
 
M

matiusaa

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well, at this levels there are almost no bad players. The shove on the turn is to protect his hand against a potential better hand as is yours. Well I would have probably made the call cause if he had the flush I had redraws for a higher flush and a full house. You had exactly 13(6 for full house and 7 clubs) outs to beat him, out of 44 cards left, that's almost 29,5% of the cards left. In order to make the call to be profitable, you have to win 30,5% of time (790/(790+1760). If you think that the opponent will be bluffing only just a small range of hands, then the call it is profitable. Here you have that you SHOULD call everytime, cause I assume he will bluff sometimes, even though we don't have stats on him.
 
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