$1000 NLHE Full Ring: Live Hand, JJ river Bet Size/Response

Z

Zybomb

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$1000 NL HE Full Ring: Live Hand, JJ river Bet Size/Response

5/10 NL Effective Stacks $1000

We open to $40 w JJ from MP and the player to our left reraises to $100. Player is an unknown. Folds back around to us and we call.

Flop: K
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K
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J
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We check and he checks behind

Turn: 4
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We bet $150 and he calls after a pause

River: Q
club.gif




Ok so we're trying to get value out of AA basically, since villain never has AK here given that he checked behind on the flop and didn't raise the turn and probably can't call w anything worse than AA

So whats our bet sizing here?

If we are raised is this is a fold since villain either has Queens full or Quad Kings almost always?
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Do not fold full houses in 3-bet pots. I don't know what the optimal bet size is on the river, but your river line absolutely cannot include /fold at the end of it.

Also, isn't this a good spot for a CRAI on the river? Or does him checking back the flop indicate he has a bluff catcher, and is therefore likely to take a free showdown? Stacks are just perfectly sized for a check/jam tho :(
 
Z

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Do not fold full houses in 3-bet pots. I don't know what the optimal bet size is on the river, but your river line absolutely cannot include /fold at the end of it.

Also, isn't this a good spot for a CRAI on the river? Or does him checking back the flop indicate he has a bluff catcher, and is therefore likely to take a free showdown? Stacks are just perfectly sized for a check/jam tho :(

While folding a boat in 3 bet pot may sound ludicrous staying on level one thinking only (what do we have) can hurt us if the only reason we're calling is bc of our hand and not giving level 2 and 3 any thought (what does he have, what does he think I have). Given villains line thus far, he never has AK, and I can't think of a hand that raises the river that we beat outside of that. He's also not making a move on us since this is a board that we easily could have smashed and we've continued to show aggression after being called down on the turn -- so it then makes us ask what hands is he raising for value that we beat with middle underboat?

I think CRing the river is bad in this spot bc villain has shown zero aggression thusfar and appears to just want to get to showdown. Thus the chances of him checking behind the river are pretty high IMO. If he somehow did value bet, I dunno how he could call a river CRAI unless he has seen me bluff CRAI rivers before (which he hasn't) and try and hero.

Like originally stated though, I think our main goal here is to get value out of Aces with a river bet, and Im not sure the bet sizing to get aces to call here (and maximize)
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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I also think its a mistake to put villain on 1 hand (aces) when his range is far wider. I mean, the guy is unknown and all we know is he's checked back the flop, and called a turn bet.
 
dsvw56

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1. It's live poker, where 99% of players are awful.
2. Player is unknown, assume he's awful until proven otherwise.

Folding here is never an option. AK is 100% a viable hand because most players think "Hahahaha, slow play time" here with AK.

There's 3 combos of QQ, 1 combo of KK, 2 combos of KJ, and 6 combos of KQ for12 combos of hands that beat you.

There's 8 combos of AK and 6 combos of AA for 14 combos of hands that you beat.

That makes the decision pretty easy. Bet $350-$400 and snap-call a shove.
 
Z

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I also think its a mistake to put villain on 1 hand (aces) when his range is far wider. I mean, the guy is unknown and all we know is he's checked back the flop, and called a turn bet.

Of course his range is wider than Aces... what I meant was AA is pretty much the only hand that we are going to get value from when we bet, so I think our bet should be sized to convince AA to call

1. It's live poker, where 99% of players are awful.
2. Player is unknown, assume he's awful until proven otherwise.

Folding here is never an option. AK is 100% a viable hand because most players think "Hahahaha, slow play time" here with AK.

There's 3 combos of QQ, 1 combo of KK, 2 combos of KJ, and 6 combos of KQ for12 combos of hands that beat you.

There's 8 combos of AK and 6 combos of AA for 14 combos of hands that you beat.

That makes the decision pretty easy. Bet $350-$400 and snap-call a shove.

If villain would take this line (check behind flop after 3 betting pre then just call the turn and shove the river) with AK or any K at all for that matter, I'd certainly have a read by this point to say he's moronic. The fact that he's still unknown basically means I havent played with him before this session and he hasn't gotten out of line yet since I've been at the table.

If this were a 1/2 game and the player didn't appear to know how to play much etc the situation could be different, but I'd generally relate live 5/10 players skill level to typical MSNL online games (2/4 - 3/6). The "Haha slowplay AK" thinking shows up next to never (assuming we don't have a read villain is atrociously bad)

Is AA really going to call a large bet of $350-$400?

Yea there are 14 combos of AK/AA and 12 combos of KJ KQ QQ KK, so based on that alone we call a shove, but given the way the hand has been played out villain has AK next to never (and if he does somehow he's not raising the river bc the board is super scary) and is AA ever raising the river after checking behind the flop and calling the turn? I'd say as close to 0% as possible. Thus given all that, the 14 combos essentially vanish since AA never raises the river and AK rarely does and hardly ever shows up here given his flop and turn action, making us a monster dog to his river shoving range.




As a side note im just trying to further the discussion (and give my own opinion obviously) in case I come off as argumentitive or whatever its not meant that way
 
U

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Is this never AQ or TT? I don't play at these stakes but AQ might call a bet here too given you are an unknown to him also. Your hand seems super underrepresented and AQ could have called the turn thinking to pick up some implied odds if a T hits and his straight beTs your potential set. If that doesn't make sense then ok I'm not that great but it seems like it might make sense given there is a lot of weakness shown so far
 
Z

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Is this never AQ or TT? I don't play at these stakes but AQ might call a bet here too given you are an unknown to him also. Your hand seems super underrepresented and AQ could have called the turn thinking to pick up some implied odds if a T hits and his straight beTs your potential set. If that doesn't make sense then ok I'm not that great but it seems like it might make sense given there is a lot of weakness shown so far

It certainly can be some of the time. Our river bet could be sized to try and induce calls from these hands as well (although I think they fold more often than not)... but Are either of these hands ever going to raise the river? No so if we are shoved on these don't come into consideration.. but yes when initially betting the river we could give AQdd some consideration
 
Weregoat

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I think his pause is important. The information we extract from this player when he pauses can tell us about his hand. Most live players tend to be transparent - and his pause was either a: acting, or b: not acting -

It's B more than it's A, and you see a lot more A as player skill moves up. I'd bet this river more often than not, but you don't want to scare villain out, just charge him for having AA or AK. I'd say somewhere in the range of $250-350, with the intention of calling any raise.

I've never known a player in my life to fold AA to any bet on any street on any board - but then again, I've never met any good poker players, and more often than not the hand goes into the muck without me peaking at it - so it's quite possible it DOES happen. I'd examine player more carefully, you can get a lot of information from somebody by looking at them at the card table. And I'd definitely look into that pause before he called the turn bet -
 
thepokerkid123

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Check raise. I think you have to check to induce bluffs because more often than not he's not going to have anything that can call a bet.

As for whether or not to play for stacks, shoving/calling all in is definately +EV here.
I think AK does show up sometimes. 3bet pre-flop, check on the flop because he's got the deck crippled, turn call for the same reason, planning a raise on the river. I don't think it's a good line to take, but I don't see it as anywhere near 0%.
We can also ignore KQ/KJ a lot easier than AK, so like you say it's really only KK/QQ we have to worry about. There's no reason not to get stacks in.
 
KardKlub

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With reading all the comments, especially from the op.

With stacks in mind we have around 1 1/2 pot size bets left and a pot of just over $500. Making our hand look bluffier than it is may help either to get him to call the bet or to over value his hand and shove the rest of his in.

So betting $190-210 looks like were trying to buy the hand cheap, leaving us with 580-600ish left. This play doesn't help with determining that were beat but we allow worse hands to do what we didn't want better hands to do.

It's the flop check that gets me thinking the most, and the turn card drawing a blank and still getting a call ????????

as the lead you'd think he'd bluff, semi bluff and value bet these boards ip on the flop and the turn as this is how you'd merge both plays with the eluding 3 barrel just around the corner. But he chooses not too.
 
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