Originally Posted by c9h13no3
I also think its a mistake to put villain on 1 hand (aces) when his range is far wider. I mean, the guy is unknown and all we know is he's checked back the flop, and called a turn bet.
Of course his range is wider than Aces... what I meant was AA is pretty much the only hand that we are going to get value from when we bet, so I think our bet should be sized to convince AA to call
Originally Posted by dsvw56
1. It's live poker, where 99% of players are awful.
2. Player is unknown, assume he's awful until proven otherwise.
Folding here is never an option. AK is 100% a viable hand because most players think "Hahahaha, slow play time" here with AK.
There's 3 combos of QQ, 1 combo of KK, 2 combos of KJ, and 6 combos of KQ for12 combos of hands that beat you.
There's 8 combos of AK and 6 combos of AA for 14 combos of hands that you beat.
That makes the decision pretty easy. Bet $350-$400 and snap-call a shove.
If villain would take this line (check behind flop after 3 betting pre then just call the turn and shove the river) with AK or any K at all for that matter, I'd certainly have a read by this point to say he's moronic. The fact that he's still unknown basically means I havent played with him before this session and he hasn't gotten out of line yet since I've been at the table.
If this were a 1/2 game and the player didn't appear to know how to play much etc the situation could be different, but I'd generally relate live 5/10 players skill level to typical MSNL online games (2/4 - 3/6). The "Haha slowplay AK" thinking shows up next to never (assuming we don't have a read villain is atrociously bad)
Is AA really going to call a large bet of $350-$400?
Yea there are 14 combos of AK/AA and 12 combos of KJ KQ QQ KK, so based on that alone we call a shove, but given the way the hand has been played out villain has AK next to never (and if he does somehow he's not raising the river bc the board is super scary) and is AA ever raising the river after checking behind the flop and calling the turn? I'd say as close to 0% as possible. Thus given all that, the 14 combos essentially vanish since AA never raises the river and AK rarely does and hardly ever shows up here given his flop and turn action, making us a monster dog to his river shoving range.
As a side note im just trying to further the discussion (and give my own opinion obviously) in case I come off as argumentitive or whatever its not meant that way