$1000 NLHE Full Ring: Bottom full house. Easy call on the river?

M

mottotom27

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[converted_hand][hand_history]poker stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #35381041

Hero (BTN): $10 (100 bb)
SB: $9.80 (98 bb)
BB: $14.19 (141.9 bb)
UTG+1: $13.99 (139.9 bb)
UTG+2: $10 (100 bb)
MP1: $11.14 (111.4 bb)
MP2: $10.22 (102.2 bb)
MP3: $11.32 (113.2 bb)
CO: $10.08 (100.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with 2:heart: A:heart:
UTG+1 calls $0.10, 5 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.95) 4:spade: 2:club: 2:spade: (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $0.45, Hero raises to $1.35, UTG+1 calls $1.35

Turn: ($3.65) 7:diamond: (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $2, UTG+1 calls $2

River: ($7.65) 4:heart: (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $7.65, Hero ?

No stats on villain. Can he really have a 4 here? do you think he's bluffing often enough with busted flush draws/turning pairs into bluffs to make calling +EV?
 
PCK

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I cant see a 4 here,i can see a low pocket pair like 55//66 or flush draw,i would call the river
 
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hffjd2000

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Neither do I. 4 is somewhat remote.

I can see pockets or simply bluff here.
 
Figaroo2

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Easy call here, he won't be putting you on a 2 or a 4 so probably thinks he is betting for value with some sort of bigger pair. I wouldn't be surprised if he flipped over a really big pair as well, as you were doing the betting for him. Todays games are so aggressive, limping utg with AA KK and looking to re-raise the squeezer is coming back in, I do it myself on occasions.

I saw the $1000 here in the header and thought blimey you moved up quick!
 
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M

mottotom27

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He actually had 66, so seems like you guys sussed it out pretty well. The hard part for me was that he'd bet pot when the 4 came. I'm used to 5nl where pot sized river bets are hardly ever bluffs. Also would 99 be such an easy call here?

I saw the $1000 here in the header and thought blimey you moved up quick!

Haha nah i just was tilting at 10nl so decided to take a shot :D
 
PCK

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He actually had 66, so seems like you guys sussed it out pretty well. The hard part for me was that he'd bet pot when the 4 came. I'm used to 5nl where pot sized river bets are hardly ever bluffs. Also would 99 be such an easy call here?
Yes ,same easy call with all pocket pairs from +88
 
Aces2w1n

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I put him on medium up to 9s

The way your opponent played was awful, you should have a note on him.. He only played the hand which got people to call with better hands.

Really all he was beating was a bluff and couldn't beat anything but he was the one leading out river which makes no sense lolz. Or ofc he was trying to bluff someone with a decent hand :)

And yes it was an easy call.


If you hadn't raised preflop perhaps could've been a different story and plus your opponent is UTG .... So unless he's an absolute fruitloop or making a monster play which does happen from time to time it was safe to call :)... And perhaps even jam the river for value. Cuz medium pockets would give us value on the river especially if it was 99s - JJs ... I doubt QQ would've played the same but who knows everyone is diff in this game.
 
F Paulsson

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I believe hero was calling all-in? Here's a fun counter scenario: if stacks had been deep and the river bet smaller, should hero have raised? Why/why not?
 
John A

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Easy call, but why the hesitation here? I'm trying to sort out are you posting these because you lost, and you're being results oriented or you're trying to just make sure you're getting the correct price for your hand value? Maybe some of both.

Fyi, I'd raise a little more on the flop, and bet slightly more on the turn so the river is an easy call for your opponent.
 
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mottotom27

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Easy call, but why the hesitation here? I'm trying to sort out are you posting these because you lost, and you're being results oriented or you're trying to just make sure you're getting the correct price for your hand value? Maybe some of both.

Fyi, I'd raise a little more on the flop, and bet slightly more on the turn so the river is an easy call for your opponent.

Probably being a little results oriented too, but the thing is I've always tended to get very scared on the river and only recently have i started calling people down. In the past i have actually folded these hands seeing the pot sized bets as major strength and feeling like he has a 4. I think i remember the times when i lose much more than when i win which leads me to believe i'm always losing in these spots which is why i used to fold here.
 
F Paulsson

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Think combos. How many combinations of hands does a player call/call with preflop that contains a 4? Compare this to 88/99/TT. Maybe throw in the occasionally weirdly played AK or AJ or something, and a very occasional bluff with something like JT. How does it stack up?
 
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mottotom27

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yea you're right i'm in good shape here. i think i really need to start analysing players ranges during hands and thinking what combos they could have. i mean i just got scared of the top flop card pairing. if the board paired much higher you might have to fold to the big bet if board paired say a K which was on the flop instead of 4, agreed? So where do you draw the line? What card would it have to be that pairs on the river where you start folding? 8 or higher?
 
Figaroo2

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Well this is why we use a HUD to give you those steers towards an opponents ranges. And why its a good idea to post said stats when you submit a hand for comment and analysis.
Your response to a nit and the weight you give to his bets is much different to Mr laggy nutball.
Here the EP opener limp calls. Generally in my experience this is a smaller pair or suited connector looking to see a cheap flop. He doesn't want to make it x3 because he can't stand a raise but will be willing to set mine lower pairs for up to x4/5.
So how many aces and kings do you put in his range? I would suggest very few and why is that relevant here you have trips and then a FH and will usually only be beaten if he hits a 2 outta for a bigger full.
 
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mottotom27

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I stated in the initial post that villain's unknown. He limped called pre and then donked flop an indication he might be a fishy player. Fish can call with anything so i can expect a fair few weak Ax or K5s type hands in his range, although i agree he'll have a lot less than a typical EP range. So if the board had come A22 instead of 422 and he took exactly the same line then i'm confident he mostly has Ax on the flop when he takes that line and when the river pairs an ace we have to fold i think. similar reasoning for K22. But 422 is ok. So what about 722 or 922?

Edit: I'm talking about the river decision where the board pairs with whatever the top card was on the flop, in case that wasn't clear.
 
suby_rafael

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We are representing an over pair since the flop and coming too strong for a :4d4: to station us on for two streets. In such scenarios a :4c4: would have likely been mucked.

If villain has us beat he is likely to either have :7s4::7h4: or :4d4::4c4: both of which would be coolers. We beat everything else so don't let villain bully us in such spots. ;)
 
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I've had it happen to me too many times (not in my favor of course). Obviously if you yourself have a full house, most of the time, you should call it.. Some people are erratic and nearly impossible to predict, but I guess your best bet would be to assess your opponents behavior the best you can, and prey to whatever's out there that they don't have the miracle hand :p
 
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