$ $1000 NLHE Full Ring (5/10): Decision on the river

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gustav197poker

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Cash game in casino.
Blinds of 5/10.
Table with 10 players.

All of the following values ​​are rounded:
SB: No information.
BB: No information.
UTG1 (HERO): $ 1900. Receive: Ac-Qd
UTG2: No information.
MP1 (VILLAIN 1): $ 1100. Tight-loose player. Opens with semi closed range from EP. Since LP plays with very wide ranges. I've seen him show: K-2o; J-To; Q-7o from last positions.
MP2: No information.
MP3: No information.
HJ (VILLAIN 2): $ 1500. Super aggressive player. I buy chips 3 times on the same night. Open game with any hand, it is totally unpredictable. He makes big bets when he gets in one hand. He likes to place bets between 100% - 200% the size of the pot.
CO: $ 3500. The leader in table chips. Very tight player who releases a little from LP. Since LP he has played Q-Js; 5-5. Since EP he has played K-K; A-Js
BTN: No information.


5/10 blinds

PREFLOP:

UTG1 (HERO) with Ac-Qd opens at $ 25. UTG2: FOLD. MP1 (VILLAIN 1): CALL. MP2 and MP3: FOLD. HJ (VILLAIN 2): Go up to $ 70. CO: CALL. BTN: FOLD.
HERO AND MP1: CALL.


Jackpot: $ 295 (4 players)
FLOP: 2s - Ts - Qc

UTG1 (HERO) bets $ 120 (approximately 40% of the pot)
MP1 (V1): CALL, HJ (V2): CALL, CO: CALL.


Jackpot: $ 775 (4 players)
TURN: 2s- Ts- Qc 9d

UTG1 (HERO): CHECK.
MP1 (V1): $ 250 bet. (Approximately 30% the well)
HJ (V2): CALL.
CO: CALL.
UTG1 (HERO): CALL.
MP1 (V1): CALL.


Jackpot: $ 1775 (4 players)
RIVER: 2s-Ts-Qc-9d Qs

UTG1 (HERO): Bet $ 690 (Approximately 40% of the pot)
MP1 (V1): CALL.
HJ (V2): ALL IN $ 1180
CO: FOLD.

In total 3 players in the hand, the jackpot is approximately $ 3645.
What would you do in this situation being HERO?
Thanks for your response, regards.
 
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John A

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1) Wrong forum - this needs to go in the hand discussion subforum.
2) This many people in the hand you should be checking that river. Both KJ and flushes got there. This is a pretty easy fold MW.
 
Matt Vaughan

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This hand is super awkward from the start. If this super loose aggressive player is 3betting us small multiway and the CO cold calls, I'm more inclined to 4bet or fold this hand than to call it preflop and likely go 4ways (which we do).

Also on the flop, why are we leading? Like I suppose it gets us some "protection" or "equity denial" or whatever, and we don't WANT this to check through, but at the same time, do we EVER lead pure bluffs here? Semibluffs? Do we even lead anything weaker than our exact holding? I just feel like we are absurdly face up here.

But whatever, we lead, and the whole world calls. Fun...

On the turn we decide to slowdown, which I think makes sense, because KJ gets there, T9 gets there, QT beats us, and I can't really see enough combos of KQ, QJ, and flush draws being out there in this super awkward 3bet pot.

And frankly, when we face a bet (even a small one) and MULTIPLE calls in front of us, I don't even see us having the equity to continue here.

With everyone calling flop, and this turn card coming, I think this is roughly what the ranges look like, and our equity (BEFORE any turn bets go in). And this is sort of "generous" - in our favor btw. This is not great for us.

Us: AQo (24.76%)
MP: JJ, AQs, ATs, AsJs, As9s-As3s, KTs+, Q9s+, J9s+, AQo, KJo+, QJo (31.38%)
HJ: KK+, JJ, AQs, AsKs, AsJs, As9s-As3s, KJs+, QTs+, AQo, KQo, QJo (25.60%)
CO: AQs+, AsJs, KJs+, QJs, AQo+, KQo (18.26%)

47909d6040293658d0ad58c1a38cb27f.png


Now what about after this betting action occurs? MP now bets, and HJ AND the CO call, and we need to decide whether to continue in this pot with 3 opponents still. Imo it's something like this as an absolute best case scenario, removing a lot of the KJ from HJ and CO since they'd likely raise those combos some % of the time, so I choose to remove all non-spades KJ:

Us: AQo (18.62%)
MP: AQs, AsJs, As9s-As3s, KJs+, Q9s+, AQo, KJo+, QJo (47.35%)
HJ: KK+, AQs, AsKs, AsJs, As9s-As3s, KQs, KsJs, QTs+, AQo, KQo, QJo (22.70%)
CO: AQs+, AsJs, KQs, KsJs, QJs, AQo+, KQo (11.33%)


90e1de9d272e523a71c63c8f22c70cc8.png


And in spite of this "great price" we're getting, it's actually going to be pretty hard to realize all of that equity, which again I think is likely a best case scenario more or less.

But okay, we call.

We hit a great river, right! Well... eh, not really. It's fewer combos of QT and Q9, but also fewer of KQ, QJ, which is a larger impact. Plus it's a spade. In fact, even if it WASN'T a spade, it wouldn't be THAT great of a card, because spades aren't putting in any more anyway unless they're a Q or a straight anyway.

But let's check our equity here:

Us: AQo (4.244%)
MP: AQs, AsJs, As9s-As3s, KJs+, Q9s+, AQo, KJo+, QJo (48.11%)
HJ: KK+, AQs, AsKs, AsJs, As9s-As3s, KQs, KsJs, QTs+, AQo, KQo, QJo (40.57%)
CO: AQs+, AsJs, KQs, KsJs, QJs, AQo+, KQo (7.077%)


97b270fb7a454736dbdfa1b21fb054d6.png


Not only did our equity plummet, but we are actually in last place equity wise. Oof. This not only an easy check on the river, but an easy check FOLD. As played we bet, and we see a call, then get jammed on (which btw isn't shocking). Just for the fun of it, let's check what our equity looks like against best case scenario now, saying maybe MP just folds KJ without a spade cause he's too scared, but somehow doesn't fold QJ or KQo (impossible in practice). Even removing MP's flush combos since he'd raise them, and boat combos since he'd raise them, isn't enough to raise our equity.

Similarly, even if you leave HJ's range untouched, leaving absurd combos in like KK+, and remove the CO, we are still in horrendous shape with ~12% equity. The only way this could ever become a call would be if MP were to muck out of turn and we knew we were just calling to beat the HJ. Very, very, very clear fold.
 
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gustav197poker

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Scourrge said:
This hand is super awkward from the start. If this super loose aggressive player is 3betting us small multiway and the CO cold calls, I'm more inclined to 4bet or fold this hand than to call it preflop and likely go 4ways (which we do).

Also on the flop, why are we leading? Like I suppose it gets us some "protection" or "equity denial" or whatever, and we don't WANT this to check through, but at the same time, do we EVER lead pure bluffs here? Semibluffs? Do we even lead anything weaker than our exact holding? I just feel like we are absurdly face up here.

But whatever, we lead, and the whole world calls. Fun...

On the turn we decide to slowdown, which I think makes sense, because KJ gets there, T9 gets there, QT beats us, and I can't really see enough combos of KQ, QJ, and flush draws being out there in this super awkward 3bet pot.

And frankly, when we face a bet (even a small one) and MULTIPLE calls in front of us, I don't even see us having the equity to continue here.

With everyone calling flop, and this turn card coming, I think this is roughly what the ranges look like, and our equity (BEFORE any turn bets go in). And this is sort of "generous" - in our favor btw. This is not great for us.

Us: AQo (24.76%)
MP: JJ, AQs, ATs, AsJs, As9s-As3s, KTs+, Q9s+, J9s+, AQo, KJo+, QJo (31.38%)
HJ: KK+, JJ, AQs, AsKs, AsJs, As9s-As3s, KJs+, QTs+, AQo, KQo, QJo (25.60%)
CO: AQs+, AsJs, KJs+, QJs, AQo+, KQo (18.26%)

47909d6040293658d0ad58c1a38cb27f.png


Now what about after this betting action occurs? MP now bets, and HJ AND the CO call, and we need to decide whether to continue in this pot with 3 opponents still. Imo it's something like this as an absolute best case scenario, removing a lot of the KJ from HJ and CO since they'd likely raise those combos some % of the time, so I choose to remove all non-spades KJ:

Us: AQo (18.62%)
MP: AQs, AsJs, As9s-As3s, KJs+, Q9s+, AQo, KJo+, QJo (47.35%)
HJ: KK+, AQs, AsKs, AsJs, As9s-As3s, KQs, KsJs, QTs+, AQo, KQo, QJo (22.70%)
CO: AQs+, AsJs, KQs, KsJs, QJs, AQo+, KQo (11.33%)


90e1de9d272e523a71c63c8f22c70cc8.png


And in spite of this "great price" we're getting, it's actually going to be pretty hard to realize all of that equity, which again I think is likely a best case scenario more or less.

But okay, we call.

We hit a great river, right! Well... eh, not really. It's fewer combos of QT and Q9, but also fewer of KQ, QJ, which is a larger impact. Plus it's a spade. In fact, even if it WASN'T a spade, it wouldn't be THAT great of a card, because spades aren't putting in any more anyway unless they're a Q or a straight anyway.

But let's check our equity here:

Us: AQo (4.244%)
MP: AQs, AsJs, As9s-As3s, KJs+, Q9s+, AQo, KJo+, QJo (48.11%)
HJ: KK+, AQs, AsKs, AsJs, As9s-As3s, KQs, KsJs, QTs+, AQo, KQo, QJo (40.57%)
CO: AQs+, AsJs, KQs, KsJs, QJs, AQo+, KQo (7.077%)


97b270fb7a454736dbdfa1b21fb054d6.png


Not only did our equity plummet, but we are actually in last place equity wise. Oof. This not only an easy check on the river, but an easy check FOLD. As played we bet, and we see a call, then get jammed on (which btw isn't shocking). Just for the fun of it, let's check what our equity looks like against best case scenario now, saying maybe MP just folds KJ without a spade cause he's too scared, but somehow doesn't fold QJ or KQo (impossible in practice). Even removing MP's flush combos since he'd raise them, and boat combos since he'd raise them, isn't enough to raise our equity.

Similarly, even if you leave HJ's range untouched, leaving absurd combos in like KK+, and remove the CO, we are still in horrendous shape with ~12% equity. The only way this could ever become a call would be if MP were to muck out of turn and we knew we were just calling to beat the HJ. Very, very, very clear fold.
Click to expand...


Happy to have done fold :)
Greetings and thxs!
 
Jacki Burkhart

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I lean towards wanting to 4bet or fold AQo preflop facing multiway action OOP. vs some villains I am going to easily fold, but vs who you describe I am going to 4bet all day and fold to a 5 bet. Because of this I will choose a 4bet on the smallish size of the acceptable range. to me, that means about $220. not only do we dominate the crazy player's range, but we get to be in a heads up pot with the betting initiative instead of OOP, with a capped range multiway.

as played, donking flop multiway with TPTK in a 3bet pot is very nonstandard. To take such nonstandard lines we need to have good plans or good reasons. what could those be though?



Do we think he is 3betting too light?
Do We think he is super aggro and tends to bet too large and too often post flop?
Do we want to stack off with TPTK?


My answer to all of those would be to check raise him. We will have plenty of semi bluffs we can check raise here to maintain balance. Plus, if he is as you describe he will be Cbetting too often, and his Cbets will be too large for the situation so taking it down right there has added value. If we don't want the added variance of check raising we can just check call 3 streets (barring a terrible runout.)

once we arrive at river having taken this weird line and getting a fairly bad runout (straight and flush cards arrive, multiway....) and he raises us it's a pretty easy fold. Is trips really good vs a river raise? What do we beat? AA and KK? Will AA or KK ever do this? we only beat bluffs.

Cliffsnotes:
4bet preflop.
as played check raise flop
as played check call or check fold turn
as played check call river
 
Last edited:
F

fundiver199

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I think, the reads and dynamics, you describe here, are actually very important for, how preflop should be played. Without those reads I think, AQ offsuit is a pretty easy fold, when you open UTG and face this action behind you. However with the reads, what are we really looking at here?

We have MP1, who called you with a setmine, then we have HJ, who is a maniac and made an undersized 3-bet with whatever, and finally we have CO, who has a great incentive to cold call the 3-bet to play a pot in position against all of you but especially the maniac.

Given all this information its very unlikely, someone have a really premium hand here. So why not 4-bet and get at least some of them out of the hand. Playing a 3-bet pot 4-ways out of position with AQo is putting yourself in a situation, that just scream reverse implied odds.

And frankly this is exactly, what happened. You lead the flop and got called by everyone, and already now the pot is starting to become way to big for your hand. This is especially problematic, because you are deep against 2 of them.

As played just check-fold the turn. Its difficult to imagine, that HJ is betting light here into a field of 3 other players, so even just against him you are most likely beat, and when both other players call, this spot is getting seriously sticky for any one pair hand.

Preflop and flop are not huge mistakes, but on the turn and river you are seriously setting money on fire. Its fine that you folded to the raise, but at this point you had already invested way to much in the hand.
 
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