$1000 NLHE 6-max: Value bet this river?

pokerstars NL 5/10 cash game 6 max
Vilain is in the CO is a Very agressevely regular.
UTG 123.5BB
MP2:107.38BB
VILLAIN:155BB
Hero: 112BB
SB: 97BB
BB:98BB
SB put 0.5BB, BB put 1BB
2 folds, VILLAIN Opens for 3BB, hero calls with KdQd
Flop
JcTc6s
Villain checks, hero bet 6.5BB, VILLAIN calls
Turn
Qh
VILLAIN checks, hero bets 12.5BB, vallain calls
River
Qs
Villain checks, do you bet this river for value or check behind, if you bet, what would you do if he raise us?

pretty easy value bet

I'm not playing 5/10 so maybe my input may not be the best but I'd say were definitely value betting this river. Would villain check AK on the river here? Or check a FH?

bet and hope he doesn't raise lol

here is the board so it's easier to read for others - [JC][10C][6S]-[QH]-[QS] Hero: [KD][QD]

baudib1 said:

pretty easy value bet

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Yep. River check/raise is almost always T9 or some shit that counterfeited. No one sane slow plays that board.

Imo, make a bet of 20-22BB, it is a bet that can be called by a hand like J9 or 99...
Incase your opponent check raises, you can still fold with 65-68bb remaining.

So are you ever bluffing in this spot? How does villain perceive you? Does villain know that you know he's aggressive and capable?

Cant' really give any answer for this kind of hand without knowing some more.

This kind of hand comes up from time to time and people ask if they should value bet, and what to do if they get raised.

Value betting is almost always right, regardless of whether he may or may not x/r you. You have a better hand than his range, you have a strong enough hand, you should be value betting regardless of what he may or may not do.

I can't really answer the other question because I don't know anything about this villain, other than he can be aggressive. Which is kind of like saying a cheetah can be fast. Yeah they can, usually its when they are chasing their prey. People mix up aggression with looseness and overplay. I am often aggressive, because I will aggressively bet hands that are valuable. So without a little more information on this guy who knows what you should do IF he reraises you.

He didn't reraise you, so lets deal with questions we can answer. You should value bet here, based off the way the hand has played out so far, against pretty much any opponent.

Easy value bet. General thoughts on checking back flop to protect our equity against a weird c/r? V's checked hands are probably continuing a lot here, no? And if they're folding this flop, they're probably folding turn bets or c/r also?

I can't imagine this is really a 1000nl game, maybe 10nl? This looks like the most trivial value bet ever. S*** happens occasionally if you get check raised would be worried because I don't see someone bluffing in this spot ever then again don't play 1k nl.

Mmm... at 10NL this is an easy value bet. At 1kNL, this is not a straight forward value bet. Trust me. It depends on the questions I asked above.

bet it if he reraise You You can think about call but definitely raise your set

John A said:

Mmm... at 10NL this is an easy value bet. At 1kNL, this is not a straight forward value bet. Trust me. It depends on the questions I asked above.

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this is the laziest response ever. When people say "it depends" and don't elaborate, they're telling us nothing. You need to elaborate on why his calling range would be tiny on this board. "Trust me" is not hand analysis.

c9h13no3 said:

this is the laziest response ever. When people say "it depends" and don't elaborate, they're telling us nothing. You need to elaborate on why his calling range would be tiny on this board. "Trust me" is not hand analysis.

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Ever huh? lol Yeah I'm pretty lazy with my posting... except I did elaborate, and if you scrolled up a couple of posts you would have seen that.

Laziest hate post ever?

If this is a low stake, Ill bet the pot.
If this is truly a 5/10 stake, Ill check.

For the sake of curiosity, if I had bet, my answer to your question if he raises us is "Im left in a desert/island".

I don't see how higher stakes makes this a check. Higher stakes makes this close to a jam and we should be jamming a ton of bluffs because villain is going to be capped here unless he is playing some reasonable approximation of GTO.

baudib1 said:

I don't see how higher stakes makes this a check. Higher stakes makes this close to a jam and we should be jamming a ton of bluffs because villain is going to be capped here unless he is playing some reasonable approximation of GTO.

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It does, because of how the hand plays out. It has very little to do with bluffing range in this spot because this would be a pretty bad bluff. I've played up to 2kNL online regularly, and the games are a little different than 10/25nl.

John A said:

It does, because of how the hand plays out. It has very little to do with bluffing range in this spot because this would be a pretty bad bluff. I've played up to 2kNL online regularly, and the games are a little different than 10/25nl.

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Are you saying we should be checking this river?

Edit: I now see above you would need more information to answer however if this were against an unknown I don't really like checking again I'm not a 1kNL player but only hand that could have us beat here (that my ineptness can see) is AKc.. I don't see a set check/calling the flop and turn on a draw heavy board and I can see us getting called by worse such as AJ-KJ-J9-JT and since we backdoor'd the treeps and were betting from the flop our hand is disguised.

Of course I could be wrong =o

Double EDIT: I think that we gain more by betting for value and getting called then we lose bet/folding on the river in the long run. However checking would make life easier

Correct, I'm saying we need more info.

I think this is a pretty easy value bet up to 400NL, when your opponents still have some problems understanding value / bluff lines. After that against competent opponents, the issue isn't whether you have the best hand often enough, it's if you're bluffing enough in this range to warrant a solid opponent to look you up with worse. You shouldn't be bluffing very often on this runout, and thus it's not a straight forward value bet. I could get into some other reasons, but this is the crux of the issue.

John A said:

Correct, I'm saying we need more info.

I think this is a pretty easy value bet up to 400NL, when your opponents still have some problems understanding value / bluff lines. After that against competent opponents, the issue isn't whether you have the best hand often enough, it's if you're bluffing enough in this range to warrant a solid opponent to look you up with worse. You shouldn't be bluffing very often on this runout, and thus it's not a straight forward value bet. I could get into some other reasons, but this is the crux of the issue.

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I see.. Our image would come into play here as well then correct (as far as more information goes)? So were checking because we are never/ hardly ever bluffing in this spot and are opponent will realize this and only be calling/raising with better hands.. If that's what you mean it makes sense and I understand.

John A said:

I could get into some other reasons.

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Please do, I am here to learn and any/all information you provide will be much appreciated by me and other members. Especially at the level you are successfully playing at.

You shouldn't be bluffing very often on this runout, and thus it's not a straight forward value bet.

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You haven't begun to explain any of your thought process on this hand other than to pretend that you have some exotic information/experience in this type of spot at this level. Saying that this is a bad spot to bluff multiple times doesn't make it so.

I could get into some other reasons, but this is the crux of the issue.

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Please do.

baudib1 said:

You haven't begun to explain any of your thought process on this hand other than to pretend that you have some exotic information/experience in this type of spot at this level. Saying that this is a bad spot to bluff multiple times doesn't make it so.

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Shh, he's a poker coach. You're just a degen azn.

I agree that the type of play changes drastically from each stake, and along with that change you also see a lot more in depth plays the higher ups. I personally bet a decent value on that hand, and I'm calling down the raise if it happens. I doubt you see a better hand check that river unless you have shown to be a big percentage river better on the previous hands

P.S. why do teachers teach and coaches coach? If they were able to win consistently then they wouldn't be taking the huge pay cut to teach. I'm not dogging on anyone, but lets remember that everyone's equal until proven otherwise no matter if they have pro, coach, or novice below their name. IN MY HUBLE OPINION

baudib1 said:

You haven't begun to explain any of your thought process on this hand other than to pretend that you have some exotic information/experience in this type of spot at this level. Saying that this is a bad spot to bluff multiple times doesn't make it so.


Please do.

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I've explained plenty, and I explained that we need more information and also explained what answers we needed to give a better answer.

What hands are you bluffing with in this spot? Does some of your double barreling range including Qx? Do you think your opponent is going to understand this really easily, and that without the answers to the first questions I asked we can't know how and if we can level our opponent in this spot?

c9h13no3 said:

Shh, he's a poker coach. You're just a degen azn.

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What's the point of a post like this?

I've not insulted baudib at any point ever, while I can't say the same about him. I'm offering my feedback and advice just like anyone else here.

John - are you saying your not sure if we should bet here because we don't have a very big bluffing range? I understand we don't have a lot of info, but we are playing against an unknown so lets analyze it from that perspective.

I'm not entirely clear on what your concerns are. I understand our hand is kinda face up, and we probably aren't bluffing here often. Which means that his calling range should be stronger. But even at these stakes, just because we aren't bluffing often/ever doesn't mean we shouldnt bet for value.

The strength of our hand and the board in relation to it are such that worse hands could be calling. I think that should be enough to justify betting for value. I think not betting for value because we might get check raised is not a good reason to check. Our opponents hand should likely (even an unknown) should be stronger than trash based off the way the hand played out. So, it may be strong enough to call and yet be weak enough that we still beat it.

I think the frustration people are feeling is that it sounds like your saying we shouldn't do something, and then not giving reasoning for it other than 1) lack of knowledge of our opponent and 2) experience you have that is somehow intangible or that you can't communicate to us. I don't mean that with disrespect, simply that I don't see the full picture of your reasoning, which is less beneficial when we are trying to analyze a hand.