$1000 NLHE 6-max: One Pair on Scary Board

UTG is 32/23 over small sample. i know he plays a lot of HU
BB is 27/17 bumhunter who is not that good

pre is because the regs behind me are all squeeze happy and im 130bb deep with villain so he isnt gonna play back much vs a 3b oop.

Button ($268.75)
SB ($1677.73)
BB ($494.02)
UTG ($1277.90)
Hero (MP) ($1326.50)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K♣, K♥
UTG bets $30, Hero calls $30, 2 folds, BB calls $20

Flop: ($95) 8♥, Q♥, J♣ (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $60, Hero calls $60, 1 fold

Turn: ($215) 4♠ (2 players)
UTG bets $150, Hero calls $150

River: ($515) 9♠ (2 players)
UTG bets $333, Hero ?

HOW MUCH MONEY HAVE YOU IF YOUR PLAYING 1000NL???

At least $1326.50

Raise the flop?

I'd fold the river. Since he's a HU player and pretty aggressive I'd suspect that A. he's capable of valuebetting the river thin, including all 2 pair+ hands and B. He probably has a lot of QT/JT/T9 combos. We have blockers for a lot of his semi-bluffing range.

im fine with the preflop action all factors considered, but that would make it mandatory for me to raise the flop, esp on that board. howcome you only flatted flop?? its such a drawfest?

3bet get it in pre. I highly doubt 1000NL is passive enough to need to flat KK as nothing worse will ever continue.

As played the river is a call, there are ample busted draws capable of bluffing here and the only straights that make sense are the made straight which I'd expect to bet bigger on the flop and turn and KT which you have blockers for.

Sure this will be QJ or KT maybe even QQ alot but you only need a bluff less than 30% of the time.

What is his value range? I think raising flop would be really bad btw. We want to keep his weaker hands in.

Raising flop bad ye reckon? Any flush draw/combo draw/aq or kq don't go anywhere imo and that's a huge part of his range here.

If he's capable of vbetting pretty thin and bluffing here...I think hero shoves

Shoving is interesting...do you think he folds QJ+? I really don't.

Poker_play said:

Raising flop bad ye reckon? Any flush draw/combo draw/aq or kq don't go anywhere imo and that's a huge part of his range here.

If he's capable of vbetting pretty thin and bluffing here...I think hero shoves

Click to expand...

We block a ton of his combo draws. Half of his AKs are gone as are a ton of hands like Khxh etc.

I don't like flatting KK here even if regs are happy sqeezing.

I hate the flop call even worse, on that board even if we hold a back door flush that board just seems so wrong even in postion 3 way to flat.

As played now though, it's one of those spots, we are clueless as to where we are at, there are a ton of two pairs/draws/sets that got there, I don't think he's ever bluffing rivers here unless he puts you on exactly a busted flush draw, which seems unlikely.


Because we didn't raise pre too, it's almost impossible for him to put you on any over pair here, so he "could" be value betting A,Q/A,J's even though that seems quite thin, so we might be justified in calling the river now based him eliminating KK from your range.

If we assume that he assumes that we'd raise AQ+ somewhere before the river and is value-betting thin:

Hands we beat
AQ -- 12 combos
KQ -- 6 combos
AJ -- 12 combos

KJ is kinda pushing it.

Hands that he can be value-betting that beat us if we assume that he plays all hands that beat KK this way, including all hands that he was semi-bluffing that got there:
AA -- 6 combos
TT -- 6 combos
QQ -- 3 combos
JJ -- 3 combos
88 -- 3 combos
QJ -- 9 combos
KT -- 8 combos
T9 -- 12 combos
QT -- 12 combos
JT -- 12 combos
ATs -- 16 combos

Leaving out the issue of playing J9/99/44 this way.

I think that's 30 combos we beat and 90 we lose to. I can't come up with a big enough range of bluffs.

I think people here are over-estimating how aggro 1knl is. Since it's gotten derailed a bit I'll share the point of this. I was villain in this hand. "Hero" in this hand is a friend and I left the reads as he listed them.

Now as for river. I don't even bet sets here, so if I somehow did bet QJ or a set on this river I 100% would be folding it, but I don't think I bet them ever so I think raising river is spew.

As for pre I agree I'm 3-betting this almost always and am not a fan of flatting other than super extreme circumstances. But as played raising flop would be very very bad against me, especially with a bad reg still left to act. Raising lets him play pretty perfect (doubt he folds QJ or continues with AQ) and a cbet 3-handed on a aboard that smacks the **** out of all our ranges (UTG open and flats of UTG open, although BB's range hits this flop way less) is already very strong so I think raising here without some kind of super insane dynamic would be on the bad side.