$100 NLHE Full Ring: Two Pair Against Donk Sees Ch-Raise AI on Turn

$100 NL HE Full Ring: Two Pair Against Donk Sees Ch-Raise AI on Turn

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 37/3/1

Donk's stats above. We hit two pair on the turn and ...

poker stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

BB: $31 (31 bb)
UTG+1: $57.65 (57.7 bb)
MP1: $114.75 (114.8 bb)
MP2: $92.70 (92.7 bb)
MP3: $20 (20 bb)
Hero (CO): $100 (100 bb)
BTN: $18.50 (18.5 bb)
SB: $20.40 (20.4 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with Q K
UTG+1 calls $1, 3 folds, Hero raises to $4.50, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $3.50

Flop: ($10.50) K A 7 (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $7.50, UTG+1 calls $7.50

Turn: ($25.50) Q (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $16, UTG+1 raises to $45.65 and is all-in, Hero ???

It's $29.65 exactly to call into $87.15 right now ... and our reads on him aren't great, it's just 30 hands so read into those stats as much you can but he's clearly looking donkish. I'm inclined to snap call but I think about what he might be doing this with that I beat and thinking I may not be as hot as I think I am, so I tank. What do you think?

with not much of a read on him id fold, there arent many hands u can beat and u could be in real trouble. 10J diamonds is a big possibility, aces up. about the only thing u can beat other than a bluff is a queen high flush draw which would still have plenty of outs i would def fold here, should have checked turn.

As played, I snap call. It doesn't take a lot for him to do this with Ax with the stack size he has. I don't think you'll have the best hand 50% of the time, but you don't need to; you only need to beat him about 25% of the time.

That said, I'm not sure about the flop bet. If he peels a ton of flops (fold-to-cbet < 50%) then I like it, but if he doesn't peel flops out of position very lightly I think it's better to check back the flop. But whatever.

Yeah what FPau said.
If he was 100BB deep and shoved the turn i could maybe find a fold but against a half stack fish i dont know what a fold button is when i have two pairs.
We only need to be good 25% of the times and if he does this with Ax,some FD and a few KJ,KQ,Q7,K7 combos we have way more then 25% equity.
I have no idea what a half stacks fish 100nl players range looks like but i put some ranges in stove for fun and came out with this.
Board: Kd Ad 7h Qs
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.836% 60.44% 01.39% 4734 109.00 { KhQh }
Hand 1: 38.164% 36.77% 01.39% 2880 109.00 { QQ+, 77, A2s+, KJs+, K7s, QdJd, Q7s, JTs, A2o+, KJo+, K7o, Q7o, JTo }

Im pretty sure his range for stacking is alot narrower then this but im still shipping it here.

if you hadn't given his fishy stats or he was full stacked i could find a fold but i think you have to get it in here against this guy

i snap call this in a second. true, there are hands that have u beat, but this c/r looks very suspect to me. seems like he is trying to pressure you into a fold to take down a nice pot.

Commented about this in the shameless blog plug, but i'll repeat here for completeness.

I really really don't like cbetting this flop. You're never getting villain to fold better and never getting called by worse. On flop, you're essentially WA/WB, so I check back. Once you hit 2 pairs on turn, stacking against a fish 60bb deep is standard. Villain has you beat with better two pairs, a set or a miracle straight most of the time, but firing two barrels so far means you're getting good enough pot odds for the few times where he does this with Ax.

pretty much what belgo and FP said.. in general I'd want to know his Fold to CBet % before deciding on the flop... 30 hands combined with a 30%+ vpip means he should have seen ~10 flops so if he's something like 1 fold to 6 cbets I'd begin to put a little stock in that he's way too loose post.

with a low FTCB I like the cbet a bit more..with a high one, I would want to check this back since betting does nothing good for you...and if we are treating him as more unkown at this point i lean towards the check behind which would be my default play here so I'd need good reason to not do it.

As played I call this without thinking twice about it but I'm not fist pumping. He likely does this with enough random aces and possibly draws or pair+draw (AJ/AT/QJ/any 2 diamonds..etc) to make taking the pot odds offered worth it. You have your 4 boat outs as well if he has something like TJ, 77, A7 etc which is worth a little bit.