$100 NLHE Full Ring: Scared Him Off...

$100 NL HE Full Ring: Scared Him Off...

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 50/50/100

I dug this one up from a week ago... What would be the best way to play this? I assumed the 3-bet from villain OOP was representing AA, KK, or AK.

I know I have 90% equity on this flop and villains stats really don't mean anything because the sample size is 2 hands, but how do you extract the most value out of this from what seems a very aggressive player?

The way the action went pre-flop I may consider folding to any other flop with over cards due to not having any reads on villain and a potential set over set issue.

Results are in there, due to the fact that I pretty much guarantee that he only folds an under pair or AK to a re-raise on the flop here.

Just for future reference, Should I just let him bet the hand for me? And if I strongly suspect villain has AA or KK and see one of those pop off on the turn or river fold? Or did I play this correctly?

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($99.80)
BB ($181)
UTG ($36.20)
UTG+1 ($96.35)
UTG+2 ($92.95)
MP1 ($61.25)
MP2 ($169)
Hero ($242)
BTN ($30.55)

Dealt to Hero Q:heart: Q:club:

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $3.50, fold, fold, BB raises to $14, Hero calls $10.50

FLOP ($28.50) Q:spade: 2:heart: 4:diamond:

BB bets $28.50, Hero raises to $114, BB folds

Hero shows Q:heart: Q:club:

Hero wins $82.50

Yeah man, flat the hell out of that. Super dry board + knowing you're a lock + aggro villain = Give him rope to hang himself with.

The fact that he's aggro means that his range is actually pretty weak. He's betting lots of total air or hands that he doesn't want to really play a big pot with. However, if he thinks he has some fold equity, he might try to push you off your hand with two or even three barrels. Therefore, in general, the best way to extract is to let him keep bluffing at you.

I'm treating him as an unknown after 2 hands.

Not sure what the skill level of the average player at $100nl is, but I'm not trusting him to fire more than one more barrel (if that) here. There aren't many good cards for him to rep on the turn/river, if people float a lot then he might just bet the turn again still trying to rep the Q but after that he's shutting down against an unknown, at least, he should.

I'm not trying to get value from bluffs here but just accepting that they're going to fold and getting value from his made hands.
I call the flop and raise any turn. The only turn cards I don't want to see are A's and K's, I'm still playing for stacks if either of them hits but they might kill the action because even if he hits them the raise will look like two pair. I think you have to raise the turn if you don't raise the flop because the effective stack is deep and you need to build a pot.

If villain is cognizant in any way of common opponent tendencies, then the turn raise is going to just fold out basically his entire range. What hands will he play for 200bb? Nothing unless he happened to have 3bet 22/44. AA/KK are gonna strongly be considering baluga theorem on the turn here, especially given the dryness. We aren't repping a draw at all, just value.

Generally I agree with trying to build a pot, but this is one spot where I much prefer taking it slow. AA/KK are going to definitely fire more barrels, so those hands it definitely benefits us to let him continue firing, and finally let the cat out of the bag after he hopefully decides he's pot committed.

AK/other air hands might fire more barrels, they might not, but they definitely fold when we show resistance, so these too benefit us to slowplay.

22/44 will stack off with us for sure, but they're going to be firing the next 2 streets and then stacking if we slowplay anyway, so it doesn't matter how we play when villain holds these.

You're right that a turn raise is almost always only for value, but that value range is a lot wider than sets.

I dunno why you put villain on exclusively AA KK or AK bc he's 3 bet pre. You've opened from the CO, he could/should be 3 betting a huge range from KT to 76 to AJ to JJ to AA out of the BB if he plans on playing.

Post flop you are way ahead and have position. Flat.

How would you play hands like TT, or AQ in this spot? Probably just call and reevaluate the turn. Do the same (obv no reevaluation) with QQ here and see what villain does on the turn (hopefully he will keep firing). Stacks are almost 200BBs deep so we do need to build a pot at some point, but I think this is overshadowed by the fact that we lose value out of everything but AA or KK by raising this big on the flop (add to the fact that there are no draws out there for us to be semi bluffing). I realize a turn raise is stronger than a flop one but our hand ranges of raising this flop are pretty narrow since we probably dont raise AQ in this fashion (WA/WB) and there are no draws to rep