$100 NLHE Full Ring: River decision with bottom set

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 33/9/2.5

No, don't worry, I'm not thinking about folding.

Best line on this river when all the draws brick? Check to induce or lead?
Villain is def. fishy (370 hands) and could have chased either the FD or some type of SD (although not the one that completes unless it's A2cc or 67cc).


Full Tilt - $1 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

Hero (UTG+1): $140.65
MP: $110.00
MP+1: $208.60
LP: $345.65
CO: $100.00
BTN: $70.75
SB: $13.40
BB: $121.75
UTG: $97.50

SB posts SB $0.50, BB posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero has 3♠ 3♣

fold, Hero raises to $3.50, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls $3.50, fold, fold

Flop: ($8.50, 2 players) 9♣ 3♥ J♣
Hero bets $7.00, BTN calls $7.00

Turn: ($22.50, 2 players) 4♠
Hero bets $15.00, BTN calls $15.00

River: ($52.50, 2 players) 5♦
Hero ???

Your betting $32.22 on river right because he missed his str8 or club draw???

ALL IN CLUBS said:

Your betting $32.22 on river right because he missed his str8 or club draw???

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what?

I understand what Wv is saying. If he checks first, it might even look like Wv was trying to hit a draw and shows weakness so villian might just bet to try and take down the hand right .

ALL IN CLUBS said:

Your betting $32.22 on river right because he missed his str8 or club draw???

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If I think he missed I want to check and let him bluff sometimes since he's never calling with his missed draws. The question boils down to if I think there are more missed draws or made hands that he checks back with in his range. So what's your opinion on that?

Think I would prefer to bet out. Villain obviously loves to call and being fishy I think he will be calling an UTG raise with KJ, AJ and calling 3 streets.

If we check this type of player isn't really betting his missed draws after 2 streets, I think they are more inclined to just give up and check it back most of the time.

Villain has $45.25 left and isn't folding any jack. Just put him in. Even if there are a ton of broken draws in his range, who says he even bets them? I don't trust the fish to bluff his air (or bet his jacks for that matter), especially if it means I miss out on a 45 big blind value bet!

Induce

I like checking and letting him fire at it which he probably will. I think another option would be to make a smaller + obvious looking blocking bet and hope he comes over the top but this would be totally situational.

Leading out for half the pot not getting called very often.

c9h13no3 said:

Villain has $45.25 left and isn't folding any jack. Just put him in. Even if there are a ton of broken draws in his range, who says he even bets them? I don't trust the fish to bluff his air (or bet his jacks for that matter), especially if it means I miss out on a 45 big blind value bet!

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+1

Fish = eat

LizaBuv said:

I like checking and letting him fire at it which he probably will. I think another option would be to make a smaller + obvious looking blocking bet and hope he comes over the top but this would be totally situational.

Leading out for half the pot not getting called very often.

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Which hands do you think get to the river that will bet?

Bluff

No Brainer said:

Which hands do you think get to the river that will bet?

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Very likely on a busted st or flush draw. He will be unable to call here. Lets give him a chance to bluff at it.

So if you check your set .And other players see your hand, do they think wow i better not try a bluff on this guy because he slow plays his strong hands on the river sometimes:questionm

If you yourself had missed your draw, do that.

So if it was me I'd bet all in and not type out his stack. This works with my image to get called by worse.

although I'm not against checking as he does seem quite aggressive for a fish so he just might bite if he expects you to always value the river.

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what programs that? I been thinking about getting flopzilla... Any other good ones around?

c9h13no3 said:

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Wow, you gave me an excuse to try equilab for the first time. I gave BTN a wider range, all club aces/kings/queens plus SDs and still TP was 51% to nothing = 38%. Amazing how the mind plays tricks on you thinking there's gotta be more missed draw combos, when in fact there aren't.

Does this mean we should always value bet river in this situation, where we think villain gets to the river with TP or draws? Never induce?

No Brainer said:

what programs that? I been thinking about getting flopzilla... Any other good ones around?

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Equilab can do the same and it's free, tho discontinued on their site now until they come up with a commercial version

Its pokerazor. They're working on pokerazor two, so you can't download the original right now.

Is this a replacement to stove or do you need to still run in through stove to get the right range?Looks amazing, though I just can't belive there is only around a 23% chance it was i missed draw.

JOEBOB69 said:

Is this a replacement to stove or do you need to still run in through stove to get the right range?Looks amazing, though I just can't belive there is only around a 23% chance it was i missed draw.

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I assumed he folded his gutshot draws on the turn. But hands like KQ, he might call the turn with. Either way, the point is clear: Top pair is the bulk of villain's range, and we need to value-shove. The only way we can check to induce here is if villain had more missed draws AND we knew he'd bluff his air and value bet his top pair+.

And its a pokerstove replacement.