$100 NLHE Full Ring: QQ UTG facing BTN squeeze 160bb deep

$100 NL HE Full Ring: QQ UTG facing BTN squeeze 160bb deep

BTN is 29/18/3. 3bet% = 8.

The other 2 callers are almost certainly set mining (13/11 and 14/11 respectively).

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HAND 1
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$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details

MP2: $240.30 (240.3 bb)
MP3: $152.05 (152.1 bb)
CO: $200.50 (200.5 bb)
BTN: $259.80 (259.8 bb)
SB: $228 (228 bb)
BB: $100 (100 bb)
Hero (UTG+1): $160 (160 bb)
UTG+2: $142.95 (143 bb)
MP1: $191.50 (191.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q♣ Q♠
Hero raises to $3, 2 folds, MP2 calls $3, MP3 folds, CO calls $3, BTN raises to $16.50, 2 folds,

Hero ????

With FR isn't 8% 3-bet pretty high?

That would lean me towards shoving I think. If you call I don't think you can fold on the flop. 3/4 betting is a weak point in my game, but I think you could 4-bet and see if he shoves, cause there are 2 more people to act after you but idk... Shoving still seems like the best option.

I hate folding and i hate shoving.

I think you can make pretty decent arguments for flatting and for 4betting to $40. I think I prefer flatting, tbh.

How large is your sample? Do you have a squeeze stat or positional 3bet stats.

I'd like more information but I would like folding here. We can't use the 8% bet stat to justify 4betting or calling here as their range will be tighter than that.

If we raised from the button and he 3bet from the blinds then we can firmly say "light 3bet, lets 4bet or call". We have raised from UTG+1 in a Full Ring game! We are not going to see 98s pop up here.
This is debatable only because he may be squeezing and his stats indicate he may be too idiotic to adjust his 3betting when faced with an UTG raise. If this was a TAG we'd be out like a shot.

As it is though were out of position and I think the best were hoping for is AK (and in hoping for this we will likely give our stack over to AA or KK when a J high flop comes down).

Sample size is decent (~2K) and despite what the converter says we are UTG (not UTG+1). I don't use a specific squeeze stat but his ATS is 29%.

Basically in my mind this was a choice between calling and folding, but I'm still not sure which is best. Calling leaves us OOP with a SPR under 4 so we're essentially ready to commit our stack on any non A or K high board, right?

WVHillbilly said:

Basically in my mind this was a choice between calling and folding, but I'm still not sure which is best. Calling leaves us OOP with a SPR under 4 so we're essentially ready to commit our stack on any non A or K high board, right?

Click to expand...

Thats what I would do (flat call and see the flop).

I'd just call and play postflop coz you are deep. Villain's range shouldn't be all that wide given you raised from UTG, so 4Bing will just allow villain to play perfectly vs you (ie. you fold out all worse and face a 5B shove vs the top of his range) and if you face a 5B shove this deep you are probably looking at KK+ vs most ss FR players.

WVHillbilly said:

Calling leaves us OOP with a SPR under 4 so we're essentially ready to commit our stack on any non A or K high board, right?

Click to expand...

Even if a Jack or Ten falls? Tough spot because a J or a T on the flop look almost as frightening as an A or K. Plus, villain will probably reraise our lead out no matter what the flop looks like... I say get it in pre...

100bbs this would be standard to get in preflop but 160bbs you are almost turning your hand into a bluff by 4Bing because very few villains will stack light in this spot and you fold out the worst of villain's range (ie. the only part of it we fare well against) and just get it in with very little equity. It's also a pretty small squeeze so gives you lots of room to play postflop. No reason you have to just blindly stack off on alot of flops - play some postflop poker!

i agree with feitr

ugh, i really dont like calling here. Its probably really nitty but i fold here because its not a bad thing to do. In calling we pretty much have to play perfect postflop to make it +ev, and oop against an aggro player that is going to be real tough.

Even though villains 3bet% is huge, i cant see him going wild here, so his range is prob qq+,A,K and the odd cool hand like j,9 suited, and thats so hard to play against

Whats your fold to 3bet stat wv?

switch0723 said:

ugh, i really dont like calling here. Its probably really nitty but i fold here because its not a bad thing to do. In calling we pretty much have to play perfect postflop to make it +ev, and oop against an aggro player that is going to be real tough.

Even though villains 3bet% is huge, i cant see him going wild here, so his range is prob qq+,A,K and the odd cool hand like j,9 suited, and thats so hard to play against

Whats your fold to 3bet stat wv?

Click to expand...

74%

sigh, that sucks hard then

FWIW I had been 3bet only once at this table (I folded). Also he had only 3bet once at this table (1/21 opportunities). We are almost 100 hands into this particular table.

switch0723 said:

ugh, i really dont like calling here. Its probably really nitty but i fold here because its not a bad thing to do. In calling we pretty much have to play perfect postflop to make it +ev, and oop against an aggro player that is going to be real tough.

Even though villains 3bet% is huge, i cant see him going wild here, so his range is prob qq+,A,K and the odd cool hand like j,9 suited, and thats so hard to play against

Click to expand...

i think your range for him is way off. he's easily 3betting JJ thinking it's for value, easily 3betting AQ a bunch, sometimes some 99/TT stuff too. 18 PFR and 8 3bet is ridiculously aggro at FR and he's on the button, he's going to have more than "the odd" light 3bet hand. it's not easy to play but you're just giving up so much by folding here

and i'm a nit, i love looking for excuses to fold QQ pre. against most players i would actually fold here, because it is such a pain in the ass to play like you say. but we're in too good of shape against his range imo

also, if we get any calls behind, now we're getting good enough odds where playing it just to set mine is almost certainly +EV, so then you can even play it totally nitty postflop and still have it be better than folding

your really think hell squeeze jj for value here?

I dunno, even though hes hella aggro, for him to squeeze 99-jj for value he must be relying on wv using his stats and calling light a whole heap of times and rarely 4betting. I think he has a lot more funky hands actually than those mentioned.

If you do call, i think a j,tx flop would be 1 of the best possible imo

The problem i have with calling is that we have to be willing to play for stacks against a player like this on so many dry boards and this deep, i dont know if that is profitable.

Or at the very least we have to put in close to 25% of our stack just to see the turn

players will set-mine 3bet pots without odds so much though, i think 3betting JJ in his spot with his image is probably fine. but whether or not it's good, these aggro guys will do it without even really thinking about what calls them. they just say "whoa JJ, best hand i've seen in a while and i've been active, let's pop it up". you can't give too much credit for a thought process and assuming that everything he's squeezing is actually correct to squeeze

i'd fold AK here because doing anything else with it ends up sucking hard this deep. which makes it a fantastic spot for him to squeeze with so many freakin' hands, and his stats suggest he's pretty aware of that. but our advantage comes from the fact that we have an actual strong made hand when i'm guessing WV's range can have quite a few weaker. i just think you're giving his range too much credit.

and again, if we get even 1 call behind from either of the other players, i'd say it becomes auto-profitable even if you're just set mining every board. especially since sometimes it will check through flop and you'll be able to take the pot with Qs. if it's HU, we can play it totally differently and yeah it'll be high variance and not easy but folding to this guy just seems criminal. he is sooo aggro and he's on the button with yummy dead money. i doubt WV has a nitty image to discourage him

fwiw, an actual squeeze % stat on him would be very helpful. i always look at that when dealing with squeezes

I don't have a squeeze stat and I can't seem to find it in PT3. Sorry.

As for my image it was definitely loose. I was running 20/15/2 with an 8% 3bet myself on that particular table.

I don't have anything to add about the hand, but I want to say this is an excellent discussion, it really makes me think about ranges and what to think about during a hand. All of you keep coming to HA, please.

Just to wrap this up, I folded and felt icky about it.

Here is the full hh:

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HAND #1
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Full Tilt, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

MP2: $240.30 (240.3 bb)
MP3: $152.05 (152.1 bb)
CO: $200.50 (200.5 bb)
BTN: $259.80 (259.8 bb)
SB: $228 (228 bb)
BB: $100 (100 bb)
Hero (UTG+1): $160 (160 bb)
UTG+2: $142.95 (143 bb)
MP1: $191.50 (191.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q Q
Hero raises to $3, 2 folds, MP2 calls $3, MP3 folds, CO calls $3, BTN raises to $16.50, 3 folds, MP2 calls $13.50, CO folds

Flop: ($40.50) 6 3 5 (2 players)
MP2 checks, BTN bets $40, MP2 folds

Results: $40.50 pot ($2 rake)
BTN mucked and won $38.50 ($22 net)

Thanks for all the comments.

Had we flatted and the flop been the same how would you recommend playing it assuming we checked and he potted it?