$100 NLHE Full Ring: OESD IP versus good reg who flatted from the SB

$100 NL HE Full Ring: OESD IP versus good reg who flatted from the SB

Opponent is 15/12 over 130 hands, a winning reg according to PTR. Steal of 33 so he understanding position, 3b of 2.

I hesitated to cbet because he's likely to call or raise with almost his entire range, because he's expected me to c-bet this flop with almost my entire range. But I have equity on the flop, which is likely to decrease on the turn if I don't bet the flop, so I do.

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($44.15)
UTG ($103.50)
UTG+1 ($85.10)
MP1 ($100)
MP2 ($111.70)
CO ($81.80)
Hero (Button) ($97.95)
SB ($100)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9 , J
5 folds, Hero bets $3, SB calls $2.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($7) 8 , 10 , 3 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4, SB raises to $11, Hero calls $7

Turn: ($29) 3 (2 players)
SB bets $16, Hero ??

Turn is a brick; is he betting out with most of his range still? Is a turn raise going to take him off most of it?

If this guy is a tight aggressive reg I would probably reraise his check raise. You have plenty of outs. If he does have a hand like q10 or a weak 10 he gonna be hard pressed to call. Even if he does you have good chance of winning. I think he will fold a large part of his range to your reraise.

Yes I think a turn raise will win the hand here

When you call his raise he's always gonna bet the turn. So there's a lot of bluffs in his range

That's a really small cbet for a drawy board, and his 3bet is kind of lowish too.

I'd like to see his fold to steal stats, but anyway I don't think a 15/12 defends his SB with a hand that makes 2 pairs or a straight draw here. So he can have a set, an overpair (pretty sure he flats JJ preflop), TPTK, a nut flush draw or he could be turning overcards into a bluff.

You're clearly behind 100% of his range, you're drawing dead against some of it that turned a boat, so you really need a ton of fold equity to make raising profitable. I'll like to have a better read that he has a significant amount of air in his range before raising here. I don't think we have that read.

tomh7795 said:

If this guy is a tight aggressive reg I would probably reraise his check raise. You have plenty of outs. If he does have a hand like q10 or a weak 10 he gonna be hard pressed to call. Even if he does you have good chance of winning. I think he will fold a large part of his range to your reraise.

Yes I think a turn raise will win the hand here

When you call his raise he's always gonna bet the turn. So there's a lot of bluffs in his range

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You have plenty of outs? I'd only be happy with hitting the straight - that's 8 outs at most. Even then, if he's flopped a set then that's 0 outs.

It all depends on the read. If he's playing something like KT/QT a strong raise may be able to force him to lay down, but at the same time if he's got top pair with the hearts draw then you're likely throwing money at a pot you can't win.

Tough one but I'd lay it down personally unless you had a very strong feeling that he was bluffing.

BelgoSuisse said:

That's a really small cbet for a drawy board, and his 3bet is kind of lowish too.

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Yeah, I know. I've been watching SplitSuit's videos and trying some of his smaller bet sizing. I'm not sure if it works for me; it may require me to play laggier preflop than I am currently playing to make it work at it's best.


The other outcome from watching these videos is his aggression, but then he has a lot more experience reading/interpreting players. Button vrs blind I'm reading this as no big hand required, but I'm not sure if my opponent is reading it that way.