$100 NLHE Full Ring: The nuts on the river, bet sizing question

$100 NL HE Full Ring: The nuts on the river, bet sizing question

Villain is 13.8/11.5/1.5 with wtsd% of 37.5% and 0% fold to cbet over 250 hands


poker stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

SB: $72.25 (72.3 bb)
BB: $102.85 (102.9 bb)
UTG: $100 (100 bb)
Hero (UTG+1): $101.50 (101.5 bb)
MP1: $100 (100 bb)
MP2: $128.15 (128.2 bb)
MP3: $100 (100 bb)
CO: $105 (105 bb)
BTN: $119.50 (119.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is UTG+1 with A K
UTG folds, Hero raises to $4, 3 folds, CO calls $4, 3 folds

Flop: ($9.50) 8 J 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $6, CO calls $6

Turn: ($21.50) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $14, CO calls $14

River: ($49.50) A (2 players)


Now clearly river could have been better, so whats our optimal bet size here?

$34

$0

vanquish said:

$34

Click to expand...

Agree, something like $30-$35, imo.

I'd probably just bet 2/3 or whatever. Sucks if he shows up with AJ but i don't think a guy like that is folding any J unless you near pot it. You might even be able to get away with as high as $38-$40 depending on how he views you (could you vbet a naked A and/or would you use it as a scare card but i doubt villain would be thinking like this).

No ♥ for my $0 ?

BelgoSuisse said:

No ♥ for my $0 ?

Click to expand...

It's good if villain has AJ

This guy's obviously pretty stationy, so I just let him have it on every street. I don't understand why we don't bet larger on the flop & turn. I'm looking to build a big pot on every street, and I see no reason to bet small. But then again, I've never been a fan of c-betting for just 2/3 pot anyways...

yop. 3/4 all the way, especially once we hit. Neither river cbet or wtsd mean much after so few hands, but enough to let us know he generally likes to call.

Yeah, but I mean, why aren't we pot/pot/shoving this? **** that 3/4 pot mess.

As played, we're really only going to get ~70$ max out of him. However, if we had bet bigger on the earlier streets, we could have gotten our stack in. I think leaving that $30 of value on the table (especially against a player who isn't going to read into our bet sizes cuz he sucks) is a really big leak.

fwiw, i should add that i don't think villain is a fish. He was a multitabling supernova wo has solid stats, just his wtsd is high and fold to cbet is obv low because its over a small sample where obviously variance plays a part