$100 NLHE Full Ring: Nut straight vs a river lead on a paired board

J

jfkingchan

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Villain (VPIP: 14.2, PFR: 18.1, 3Bet Preflop: 7.5, hands: 61)

Hero(CO): ~$120 Villain(UTG+2) :~$90

Villain raised pf to $3, Hero called with As10s. Headsup.

Flop Ks Qh 4c rainbow. Villain checked-called Hero's flop bet of $5, Turn Jd, Villain led out $12, Hero smoothed planning to raise on the river.

River 4s; Villain led out $25; Hero??

Will post the results later but I am curious what should be the right play at this spot.

Thanks in advance for your kind comments!
 
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Falcon1803

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Weird play on the villain's part.... I would just call as a boat is possible. If he had QQ, KK he would have rather c-bet on the flop... With JJ - it is weird to donk on the turn. What if you had just a Q and would fold.... he would have rather check-called or check-raised... Maybe he had KQ and thought the board was locked and you wouldn't have called his c-bet, so decided to check and induce bluff... 44 would have folded on the flop...
So JJ (3 combos) and KQ (9 combos) are my options. So it is 3 times more likely that he had KQ, and it is more consistent with his line...
Call or even raise on river.
By the way, how on earth can he have PFP higher than VPIP?:))
 
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jfkingchan

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Thanks for the insight! Sorry the VPIP and PFR numbers are reversed.
 
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jfkingchan

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I am not good enough to fold this tbh, but I wonder if raise or call is the right play here.
 
DaveE

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Weird play on the villain's part.... I would just call as a boat is possible. If he had QQ, KK he would have rather c-bet on the flop... With JJ - it is weird to donk on the turn. What if you had just a Q and would fold.... he would have rather check-called or check-raised... Maybe he had KQ and thought the board was locked and you wouldn't have called his c-bet, so decided to check and induce bluff... 44 would have folded on the flop...
So JJ (3 combos) and KQ (9 combos) are my options. So it is 3 times more likely that he had KQ, and it is more consistent with his line...
Call or even raise on river.
By the way, how on earth can he have PFP higher than VPIP?:))

Really?

I'm just calling here since I'm not sure I can call his possible reraise.
 
Yoshimiii

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Really?

I'm just calling here since I'm not sure I can call his possible reraise.

? If we raise then it should be a shove.

Flat calling the river, looks like a slowplayed set OTF when he check/calls, donks the turn.

Obviously don't fold though.
 
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Falcon1803

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? If we raise then it should be a shove.

Flat calling the river, looks like a slowplayed set OTF when he check/calls, donks the turn.

Obviously don't fold though.
What set? KKK or QQQ? Would it not c-bet on the flop as there are so many hands in Hero's range that can call (AK (discounted though, as it would probably 3-bet), AQ, KQ, KJ....). It think if he has a set it only came on the turn that's why he decided to donk.... strange play though...
 
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