$100 NLHE Full Ring: Nut flush draw in position gets raised on flop

BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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$100 NL HE Full Ring: Nut flush draw in position gets raised on flop

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 17/13/2

Rush poker. We have the nut flush draw on the flop, and our cbet gets CRaised. What is the best line here? Flat call, raise smallish in the hope we induce a shove from a worst draw or raise biggish in order to try folding TP kind of hands, which may be optimistic if villain decided to CR those.

full tilt poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $127.70
UTG+1: $45.05
UTG+2: $112.45
MP1: $128.30
MP2: $192.45
CO: $97.50
Hero (BTN): $100.00
SB: $115.10
BB: $138.20

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BTN with A :diamond: T :diamond:
6 folds, Hero raises to $3.50, 1 fold, BB calls $2.50

Flop: ($7.50) 2 :club: J :diamond: 5 :diamond: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $5.50, BB raises to $16, Hero ???
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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Discounting jacks a little bit (due to lack of 3-bet) his sets number about 7-8 combos. While this seems like a tiny range, the problem is that that's the primary range that he's playing for stacks with if you shove (a big overbet). He can't have that many flushdraws, because you have the ace. That leaves mostly KdQd. Would he flat Td9d? Maybe throw in KdTd and QdTd if we think he's defending those, but we're still looking at an all-in range that is weighted towards sets.

The rest of his range is probably top-pair type hands, some air that takes a stab and some medium PPs that raise for information or turn their hands into bluffs or whatever. In my experience, his range for betting the turn will be even more weighted towards sets than anything else. Once you call the flop, he's unlikely to bet 88 unimproved, and he's going to be careful about betting a lot of the other made hands, too. The only part of his range that gets bet 100% will be his sets unless he's super-tricky and decides to go for a double check-raise (so rare you can basically ignore the probability).

For that reason, I like calling the flop. If he bets again on the turn, consider your odds and whether or not you can draw profitably. Because his range is going to be very value-heavy when he bets the turn, you can probably include quite a bit of implied odds at that point (it's very hard for people to check/fold a set on the river when a third flushcard hits). If he checks the turn, I think the decision between checking or betting is dictated by the card that comes but is going to be very close on average. As in, I'm probably betting half the cards and checking half of them, if I had to guess. I'd break it down like this:

Bet the flush (9 cards), a king or a queen (6 cards) and another jack (3 cards). There are two reasons to bet the jack once he checks it: Firstly because you can probably bet/fold at that point. If he check-raises a jack on the turn, you'll be drawing dead pretty often. But it also reduces the probability that he has a jack, and moves his range more towards "bluffs", some of which beat you or split (33, 44, 66-99, AQ, another AT). And since you called the flop you can definitely have a jack, making it even harder for him to get ballsy and check-raise bluff you. Also, if he DID check-raise a flushdraw, he's almost certainly going to call a turn bet, which is obviously good for you.

Check all the other cards. So I bet 18 cards and check behind 29 of them. I guess I was a bit off in my guesstimate of how often I bet or check the turn.

Note that I wouldn't bet an ace or a ten. Not only because I wouldn't really know what to do if he check-raises (while we're certainly not ahead on average when it happens, we're obviously not drawing dead), but also because there's little in his range that will call a bet that we beat, besides weaker flushdraws (of which there are few) and maybe a hand like KJ or QJ (if the turn is an ace, not a ten, obviously) that check/calls once, but not always twice. And while there'd certainly be value in getting calls from KJ or QJ, that's not a very big part of his range anyway since he's somewhat unlikely to check-raise the flop with those.

So... Yeah. If the turn is 6s and goes check/check, the river decision is going to be a little tricky as well, but I'd probably bet the same range as above for the river cards, except now I'd bet an ace for value. If he leads out when we river a ten or an ace, I'm calling.
 
BelgoSuisse

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Thanks for the long answer

Discounting jacks a little bit (due to lack of 3-bet) his sets number about 7-8 combos. While this seems like a tiny range, the problem is that that's the primary range that he's playing for stacks with if you shove (a big overbet).

So you think I get folds from top pair hands when I shove? Strangely enough a I get check raised a lot by that kind of hands so, so the fold I would get from those would be good enough to compensate the calls from sets.
 
F Paulsson

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I forgot about raising to fold out TPs, actually. How many of those are we looking at? Given how tight he seems, I'd guess his TP range to be something like AJ, KJs, QJs. Throw in KJo, QJo and JTs if he defends somewhat lightly. We're in the range of 15-36 combos of top pair hands. Let's average it to 25. How often do they get check-raised? On average I'd say 30% of the time, give or take. Weighted towards AJ. So ~8 combos of top pair, plus the 7-8 for the set and the 4-5 for the flushdraw. I don't have pokerstove here so I can't do the whole math thing, but checking our profitability for a shove if he folds TPs always to a shove is a good start and our EV if he folds all TPs but AJ to go from there. I'm guessing our equity versus KJo is ~45%?
 
BelgoSuisse

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I'm guessing our equity versus KJo is ~45%?

Good guess... :)

Board: 2c Jd 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.512% 54.51% 00.00% 4857 0.00 { KJo }
Hand 1: 45.488% 45.49% 00.00% 4053 0.00 { AdTd }
 
Weregoat

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This line is quite profitable in the 200NL Rush to pick up small pots with air, I've done it numerous times and it has a high success rate. So he could have air here.

Also, I've noticed Rush Poker rewards unconventional play to some extend - that is - the play that doesn't always make sense following the most common logic isn't always the most profitable. Since you have no history with your opponents or what not, so we could be drawing slim with just a flush draw, and an A or a T (or two) might not even help you.

I guess what's important is trying to find out if he is on some sort of delayed resteal bluff, where he's hoping you don't have a PP, a J, or two diamonds, or he woke up with a hand that connected big on that flop, where he has the J, a set, etc, something you're drawing against.

While FP and Belgo, between the two of you have more hands in a month than I've had in my life, it's clear that folding is out of the question here. So we can either raise here, and force bluffs, weak Js to fold, as well as lesser draws, while getting hands like TpTk, sets, KJ-QJ and sometimes TJ to call/raise, as well as sets.

Should we stack off here and run to the river:
Against a set we're roughly thirty-something percent to improve to a flush.
Against AJ we're barely a little better, and against KJ/QJ KK/QQ, we pick up another 3 outs twice for another ~12%, putting our chances a bit closer to 50% to win.

Against PP>jacks that don't have a set, he's also likely to fold, and if it's less than T we pick up another three outs, making us a favorite. Against lesser flush draws without pairs we're a huge favorite, and when the occaisonal garbage 7d2d comes up I still like our chances, and puts a tough decision on our villain.

The one thing I'd truly be worried about is a set, which is about as likely to improve to a FH as we are our flush.

However I think we're going to run into a set here infrequently enough that raising will not be unprofitable. Should you prefer to play more cautiously, I really like FP's line.

Any history with our villain will definitely help, though.

And I'm not sure how I'd play the river without a flush or the board pairing.
 
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