$100 NLHE Full Ring: Mid-trips on turn + OESD, villain shoves

$100 NL HE Full Ring: Mid-trips on turn + OESD, villain shoves

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 27/16/2

This from a few nights ago, but it has gnawed at me ever since, even more so than my AAAKK boat losing to quad K's later the same night (thankfully to a much shorter stack than mine). The latter hand was just a bad beat, I got the money in with the best of it and just got unlucky.

This hand, however, I agonized over and just can't decide if I played it smart or foolish. I'll let you guys tell me how you would have played it before revealing the end result.

Only had 46 hands on the villain so not enough to make a firm read. Maybe a bit on the LAGy side but obviously wasn't the typical spewy fish.

A weak holding preflop, but obviously I'm calling here from the BB given the favorable odds. Expected to fold to the first bet on the flop, but when the connected flop hit I had to stay in.


Hero (BB): $168.35 (168.4 bb)
UTG+1: $133.20 (133.2 bb)
UTG+2: $123.25 (123.3 bb)
MP1: $133.90 (133.9 bb)
MP2: $100 (100 bb)
MP3: $406.65 (406.7 bb)
CO: $139.30 (139.3 bb)
BTN: $107.90 (107.9 bb)
SB: $112.90 (112.9 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with 8 7
UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 raises to $3, MP1 calls $3, MP2 folds, MP3 calls $3, 3 folds, Hero calls $2

Flop: ($12.50) 9 8 6 (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 bets $10, MP1 calls $10, MP3 calls $10, Hero calls $10

Turn: ($52.50) 8 (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 bets $35, MP1 folds, MP3 raises to $393.65 and is all-in, Hero ???


So... snap call or fold? Should I have donk bet the flop?

UTG2 range contains alot of overpairs and overcards that have maybe picked up a flush draw on the turn. If MP3 is a real sophisticated player he could shove a wide range of hands here because its such a strong bet that youd only be able to call with a very small range of hands, but I dont think hes making that play at 100nl. More likely though a 27/16 is limping hands like 107 and 57 in a limped pot like this and this flop is fairly safe for a made staright. So, getting worried about hte board pairing and realize there are alot of 8s in your limping range id say MP3 got nervous about a boat and decided to shove his straight. theres liek 237 in the pot after his shove with your effective stack. Your getting a little less than 2:1 because youd need to call of 150 of your own dollars. I dont think your anywhere near 33% against MP3 shoving range. good fold imo

Seems a rather large bet on the turn for the nuts. Even if he was protecting a made straight would he really call preflop with 7-10 or 7-5?

It looks to me like an aggressive draw. Maybe a turned flush draw and straight draw with JTs.

I think i'd call the rest of my stack off to this shove. It just doesn't make any sense for a good player to do this with a full house. There's so many people in the pot he could easily raise and get at least one or two callers then shove the river with an easier price to call for the other made hands that are pot commited.

arty:

KardKlub said:

Seems a rather large bet on the turn for the nuts. Even if he was protecting a made straight would he really call preflop with 7-10 or 7-5?

Click to expand...

Yes, a 27/16 is rather loose and would def be calling with hands like 107 and 57 suited if they felt they were getting the correct implied odds. Yes, I agree villain can shove here with some draws like j10 and a flush draw, but bet sizing makes it look alot more like a made straight imo.

I may get clobbered for this, but I think I find a fold here.

First, as to donking the flop? I don't like that idea at all because of relative position. If you're ahead of the PFR, he'll likely call or fold and you're left playing the rest of the hand out of position and hating nearly every card that peels. If you're behind, he's going to raise and isolate you and you're still behind and OOP - also not good.

OTOH, if you check call, you may be laid tremendous pot and implied odds to make a call closing the action. That's exactly what happened and by far the best outcome for your hand, IMO.

Now, to the turn... I'm thinking about what the Villain puts the PF raiser on. My guess is Villain puts him on an overpair and thinks he may well get a call if he overraises and the original raiser cannot fold his pair. That opens his range in my mind to include relative monsters that beat us (T8-A8) all the way up to full-on monsters like FHs and straights (T7 or 75).

If he's raising like this only with a strong draw, console yourself by saying that he'd have sucked out on you anyway. Works for me

I would fold here. You have not invested a lot in the hand, and are very far away from the nuts. As a matter of fact, you're drawing dead to 89.

I would figure villain for trying to defend against a possible full house or flush. You just have three of a kind, and even if you're best now - which I highly doubt you are - there's a lot that can kill you on the river - fold. You have invested a minimum amount in this hand up to this point, and have got all the information you need to make the decision.

Unless of course I'm wrong.

Thanks for the feedback, folks.

I did fold here, as did UTG+2, so I have no idea what he had. I tried to pry it out of him after but he was mum. I'll admit it was a tough laydown. It was one of those hands where you have a hunch you're beat, but the cards are taunting you and I was a bit tilted from already being on a cooler. After I folded I started doubting myself, wondering if I had just let his shove scare me off the best hand.

In hindsight, and after hearing from some of you, I feel much better about the fold now.