$100 NLHE Full Ring: Lost on the turn

A

AlwaysPlanAhe

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party poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Party-Poker Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

Hero (SB) ($100)
MP2 ($119.34)
UTG ($198.31)
BB ($180.33)
CO ($111.81)
Button ($106.68)
MP1 ($141.50)
UTG+1 ($100)
MP3 ($63.96)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 10
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, 10
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UTG bets $3, 3 folds, MP3 calls $3, 2 folds, Hero calls $2.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($10) 4
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, 4
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, 3
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(3 players)
Hero bets $7.12, UTG calls $7.12, MP3 calls $7.12

Turn: ($31.36) 3
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(3 players)

Hero ???

UTG is a very good winning reg up to 400nl. His EP stats are 8.76/8.53 over 21k hands. MP3 is 58/23 fish.

I decided to donk the flop to define my hand v's UTG and get value from the fish. When they both call and the turn double pairs I'm questioning how my tens are holding up against both ranges.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Vs the fish we're doing great.

Vs the reg, these are mined hands I assume? If not, then obviously there's a big problem if you don't have any reads on the composition of his utg range or his postflop tendencies after 21k hands.

If so, then we still have a ton of info from this guys stats to see what we're up against. How often does he float vs a donk bet? Does he raise a lot of turns? Does he bet turns when checked to a lot? WTSD?

I'm basically trying to figure out if he floated AQ+ (likely only w/bdfd) or not or just has a pair and wants to keep the fish in, and what he does with that floated AQ+ on the turn.

Often I'm just going for heavy value vs the fish again and thin value vs the reg, and shutting down if he calls again (esp full ring since his utg range might only include 88+ or 77+ for pairs).
 
A

AlwaysPlanAhe

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Yarp those hands were mined so no actual history v's the guy that would help construct a range beyond going through his HH in pt4. I'm guessing if he's polarised then we're dead to the top end. Any of the bottom end continuing is flush draws, straight draws, maybe an optimistic gutshot. If he isn't polarised then I doubt we're in great shape considering he's sandwiched between us and the fish so floating with AQ/AK can't be massively profitable meaning we're up against a strong range when he flats the flop.

I don't think he floats the backdoor very often so 90%+ of his range to me is something like flush/straight draws and 88-AA with a lot of that weighted toward the 88-AA portion. HU V's fish I would guess off the top of my head we have 75-80% equity.

Pokerstove is saying the software is out of date and I can't download a new one so can't run any figures atm.
 
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