$100 NLHE Full Ring: JJ - 3bet cold call OOP

This hand has been bugging me since last night because it seems raising has no value, folding has less and calling really sucks lol.

Villain 1 - Competant but no amazing regular. Plays quite laggy and we have a bit of history. I raise UTG, 3 way flop, I bet, villain raises I fold. 2nd hand I raise MP, 3 way flop villain C/r OOP Q-high dry flop, I min-3bet, villain folds. Final hand, I raise AJs MP, villain calls OTB, SB calls, I bet J8x flop, villain min-raises, SB folds, I call. I then C/c 2 streets on final board of J8xJx. Villain shows T9s.

Villain 2 - Fish reg, ptr has him at like -10BB/100 over 55k. Stupidly wide raising range, hates folding to 3bets and has a love of spazzing out in 3bet pots.

Other player in hand I don't recognise so is probably fish.

Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 9/9
Seat 5: Andii82 ( $21.80 USD )
Seat 2: BetOnIt2 ( $28.50 USD )
Seat 3: HERO ( $100 USD )
Seat 6: EnterTheCage ( $104.53 USD )
Seat 7: VILLAIN 1 ( $100 USD )
Seat 1: KARL_SON ( $105 USD )
Seat 8: Red Aces ( $33.63 USD )
Seat 9: nandoGG26 ( $34.38 USD )
Seat 4: VILLAIN 2 ( $89.88 USD )
KARL_SON posts small blind [$0.50 USD].
HERO posts big blind [$1 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Js Jh ]
BetOnIt2 has left the table.
VILLAIN 2 raises [$3 USD]
Andii82 folds
kaTbka has joined the table.
EnterTheCage folds
VILLAIN 1 raises [$9 USD]
Red Aces folds
nandoGG26 calls [$9 USD]
KARL_SON folds
HERO calls [$8 USD]
VILLAIN 2 calls [$6 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 6s, 6h, 9d ]
HERO checks
VILLAIN 2 checks
VILLAIN 1 bets [$15 USD]
nandoGG26 folds
HERO calls [$15 USD]
VILLAIN 2 folds
** Dealing Turn ** [ Kh ]
HERO checks
VILLAIN 1 checks
** Dealing River ** [ 2h ]
HERO checks
VILLAIN 1 bets [$40 USD]
HERO folds

I call flop basically to setmine because I'm not super happy about 4bet squeezing JJ AIPF. It feels like a breakeven play. Without the randomer cold calling I am probably just folding preflop.

The flop is such a tease, I'm either miles ahead or miles behind so I just check and wait to see what happens. I figure bet and raise behind me = easy fold and hopefully it checks all the way around. I call the bet because it's so small.

When the king comes I remember deciding I'm done with the hand, even with history v's villain. Either villain has QQ/KK/AA or their AK has hit. I figure them for a stronger 3bet range than usual due to it being v's UTG open even though UTG is fish.

Then river is a standard value bet imo. It's soooo common to see this line when someone bets flop, hits turn and checks then bets large on the river to make it look like they're stealing and I'm not bluff-catching enough here.

Anyhoo that's my take on the hand and it's bloody annoying lol. Can any of you give me a eureka moment?

Well, you pretty much telegraph your hand when you flat a 3-bet here, but at these stakes it's probably ok.

If you're not comfortable playing JJ OOP, then you can profitably 4-bet here because villains 3-bet range is obviously going to be wider than normal against the fish. You're not turning your hand into a bluff. When you can win 13bbs w/o seeing a flop, and fold out hands like AQ, KQ, etc... It's really a problem of what you feel most comfortable with OOP. Some people it will be more EV to cold call, others 4-bet. Just be real about your own game.

The only eureka moment I can offer is that if you don't feel confident in your read, what size pot are you looking to play with JJ OOP against 2 people? You're going to leave yourself some tough decisions on later streets by c/c. Again, be real about your own game. Leading at this pot that already has 28 bbs in it is ok as well.

As played, fold river. Even though his range is wider, it's full ring, and he's probably not bluffing more than 30% to make it a profitable call.

John A said:

Well, you pretty much telegraph your hand when you flat a 3-bet here, but at these stakes it's probably ok.

I agree 100% with this which is why normally I would just fold preflop but with a definate fish+a probable fish+someone with a bit of history I figured 8bb's into what would most likely be 28.5bb pot is ok

If you're not comfortable playing JJ OOP, then you can profitably 4-bet here because villains 3-bet range is obviously going to be wider than normal against the fish. You're not turning your hand into a bluff. When you can win 13bbs w/o seeing a flop, and fold out hands like AQ, KQ, etc... It's really a problem of what you feel most comfortable with OOP. Some people it will be more EV to cold call, others 4-bet. Just be real about your own game.

The only eureka moment I can offer is that if you don't feel confident in your read, what size pot are you looking to play with JJ OOP against 2 people? You're going to leave yourself some tough decisions on later streets by c/c. Again, be real about your own game. Leading at this pot that already has 28 bbs in it is ok as well.

As played, fold river. Even though his range is wider, it's full ring, and he's probably not bluffing more than 30% to make it a profitable call.

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Glad you agree the river is a fold! I think you read the HH wrong though because we have a cold-caller between 3-bettor and myself preflop. It's actually 4 of us to the flop. Does this change how you would play JJ here? Does 4betting look more profitable because there's more dead money? Or is set-mining now more profitable because of better implied odds + more villains to hit TPTK/Overpair type hands post-flop?

Convert the hand please, makes it easier on our eyes.

I'm on the same page as pretty much everything John has said, except I think the option of leading the flop is pretty enticing.

We have a fish in the pot who we crush and are getting great value from, and we shouldn't have to worry too much about the 3bettor bluff raising you given the strength of your line, so he's going to play pretty true to his range.

edit: ooh I missed the cold caller too...

It gives us more of an incentive to 4bet preflop - our hand is vulnerable postflop, and we have more dead money in pre, so I just 4bet it.

As played it gives us more of an incentive to donk the flop too, considering your read on him is that he's likely a fish.

Good feedback cheers guys, I butchered this hand up pretty badly it would seem. And sorry about the HH conversion I was having trouble with it.

So what bet sizing would you use for the flop donk? Pot size is $35 so $20-25? Then are we folding if...

1 - UTG shoves followed by 2 folds
2 - UTG checks, 3bettor shoves

And what would we do on the king turn if one of the villains call flop? Close eyes and shove?

I'd bet whatever I think the fish will call with. Like 1/2-2/3 pot usually.

Scenario 1 I snap call. He doesn't have QQ+ almost ever (especially if it's the cold caller), and obviously has a really hard time showing up with 6x or 99. He's just gonna have TT/9x/77-88 too often to fold in my experience.

Scenario 2 I do fold. He just can't be shoving light enough for us to stack there imo.

K turn changes little. We'll have about a PSB left depending on how many call and what sizing we use, so I just shove vs the fish and shut down vs the 3bettor.

I like leading the flop as well, hope that fish spazzes and we can easily fold to a raise from the 3 bettor. We get way more information and value than from a x/c.

4 bet pre seems fairly standard here, flatting the 3 bet oop is going to be profitable with a spazzfish, however, with him still to act Id rather not risk him 4 betting and putting us in a tough spot, added to the fact that even against a bad reg we turn our hand face up.

4 bet, sweep the dead money, EZ game.

As played river is a fold, when villain bets flop 4 way we can narrow his range down to QQ+ most of the time, considering our hand range. Backdoor FDs are possible for c-betting but quite unlikely, either way we are beat.

4-bet to get it in vs. fish, fold vs. competent reg.

ChuckTs said:

I'd bet whatever I think the fish will call with. Like 1/2-2/3 pot usually.

Scenario 1 I snap call. He doesn't have QQ+ almost ever (especially if it's the cold caller), and obviously has a really hard time showing up with 6x or 99. He's just gonna have TT/9x/77-88 too often to fold in my experience.

Scenario 2 I do fold. He just can't be shoving light enough for us to stack there imo.

K turn changes little. We'll have about a PSB left depending on how many call and what sizing we use, so I just shove vs the fish and shut down vs the 3bettor.

Click to expand...

I'd just like to return quickly to the 4bet concept. I was looking through some of your old posts (which are very good btw) and found this thread on preflop stacking ranges.

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cash-games-11/preflop-stacking-ranges-219022/

it says to stack off with JJ profitably preflop we need villains 3bet to be 6.5% or higher which pokerstove says is {88+, ATs+, KQs+, AQo+} which is a pretty massively wide range. I know there's some dead money in the pot but villains value range here (even v's fish) is realistically something like {TT+, AQs+, KQs+, AKo}. Which is only 4.1%. Doesn't that make 4betting JJ super close to maginal even with the dead money in the pot?

With set-mining it's extremely unlikely UTG is doing anything other than calling which means we're calling $8 into $36 with almost 100% impunity and anytime a fish hits top pair or 3betting villain has overpair we're getting stacks in OTF or OTT pretty easily.

I understand the 4bet protects the JJ...but is the hand really strong enough to bother protecting here?

EDIT - I've just gone into my pt4 database, villain has 3.39% 3bet from MP over 31k sample.

I've decided to do the math to see what results are. Let's first make some assumptions. Most stats have been taken from pt4 but calling ranges are assumed. As is the 3bettor raising slightly wider than his pt4 stats suggest because of the fish. We'll also assume only 1 caller and that somebody always calls as we have close to zero fold equity v's the short stack. For the sake of ease I have included fold equity v's the 2 bigger stacks. In hindsight this is a mistake considering short stack always comes along for the ride reducing the value of our hand because of the zero FE.

UTG raising range was 21%
3bettor is value raising 4.1%
Fish cold calling range we shall say is {77+, AQs+, AKo}

UTG calling/5bet shove range {88+, AJs+, AQo+} 5.9%
3bettor {QQ+, AKs, AKo} 2.6%
Fish calls 100%

Sooooo

UTG calls 5.9/21 times = 28.1% (JJ v's UTG range)
$198.26*0.53239 = $105.55 of final pot - $88.88 investment = +$16.67
0.281*16.67 + 0.719*22.5
= +$20.86

3bet calls 2.6/4.1 times = 63.4% (JJ v's 3bet range)
$212.5*0.3619 = $76.90 of final pot - $99 investment = -$22.1
0.634*-22.1 + 0.366*22.5
= -$5.78

Fish calls 100% (JJ v's fish range)
$81.26*0.54783 = $44.52 of final pot - $33.38 investment
= +$11.14

So we're showing profit v's the 2 fish and loss v's 3bettor. Obviously we're butting heads with the 3bettor more often than the UTG fish which weighs our equity more toward the loss...but the profit v's UTG is almost 4 times as much lol. And also the cold calling fish behind everyone is most likely calling a shove meaning we're probably showing a bit more profit in the showdown v's 3bettor and a bit less v's UTG.

We could do a bit of tweaking with hand ranges and calculating precise 3way pot equities but it's fairly evident that 4bet/calling is a profitable play here. Roughly 25% of the time we're looking at something like +$15 v's UTG and fish, something close to breakeven 65% of the time v's 3bettor and fish and 10% of the time we're +$10 v's just the fish for a total overall profit of around $4.75.

Equity wise 4betting = set-mining imo. Maybe 4betting is better for metagame purposes in the end though. Thanks to everyone for their responses in this thread!!

EDIT - I have just realised that because we have no fold equity v's the short stack our overall value goes down because the instances where I have calculated +$22.50 for fold equity are now worth less because we're only +$11 v's the short stack. I now believe set-mining to be more profitable.

set mining is terrible.

That table looks pretty terrible!

baudib1 said:

set mining is terrible.

Click to expand...

Ok cool.

Jagsti said:

That table looks pretty terrible!

Click to expand...

Lol yup, I'm really loving the partypoker action atm. So glad I made the switch from stars.