$100 NLHE Full Ring: If there ever was a time to fold kk pre??

S

switch0723

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 2, 2007
Total posts
8,430
Chips
0
$100 NL HE Full Ring: If there ever was a time to fold kk pre??

UTG is a random fish with like 39/10 stats
mp3 and co are setmining regs

BTN is 9/0 with 0%3bet over 136 hands, and i have seen them flat a,k in the blinds in a 3way pot and have open limped/called jacks


poker stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

CO: $100 (100 bb)
BTN: $156.15 (126.2 bb)
SB: $100 (100 bb)
Hero (BB): $172.60 (172.6 bb)
UTG+1: $139.95 (140 bb)
MP1: $103.65 (103.7 bb)
MP2: $44 (44 bb)
MP3: $139.50 (139.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with K
club.gif
K
diamond.gif

UTG+1 raises to $3.25, 2 folds, MP3 calls $3.25, CO calls $3.25, BTN raises to $11, SB folds, Hero raises to $27, 3 folds, BTN raises to $156.15 and is all-in
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
He could have the other 2 kings!
 
S

switch0723

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 2, 2007
Total posts
8,430
Chips
0
ok, that doesnt make much difference, we still need better than 3:1 against kk+. My main question here was, is he doing this with qq enough to make this a call?
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
I was joking.

What's you table image?
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 2, 2007
Total posts
8,819
Chips
0
What's your 3-bet percentage?

Given this is just me, but I'd shove AK/QQ in this spot if I was villain. So much dead $ in there, and I know you're probably capable of a cold 4-bet. But I also never fold kings preflop... ever. But I also never play full ring... sooo yeah.
 
arahel_jazz

arahel_jazz

Unbalanced and Committed
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 6, 2007
Total posts
6,764
Chips
0
Squeeze play with pocket Aces. You're dead unless you hit.
 
S

switch0723

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 2, 2007
Total posts
8,430
Chips
0
at the table i was ~14/10 with a 4%3bet over ~50 hands.
 
PattyR

PattyR

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 6, 2009
Total posts
7,111
Chips
0
lmao yea he could of had the other 2 kings!!!

haha but seriously i would have put money that he had AKs or AQ hell maybe even JJ. looks like he made the correct play and got ya to fold.

chances of KK vs AA is 1 in a 100 right? obviously ive been on both ends of this tough, have even had my KK crack AA =]
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
at the table i was ~14/10 with a 4%3bet over ~50 hands.

I think you have to say that QQ is in his range.

I can't bring myself to fold here, not even as a lie in this thread. I call and I'm praying for a K on the flop.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 2, 2007
Total posts
8,819
Chips
0
Oh wow, just read the reads on button, and honestly, I don't hate folding.

Btw, your table selection sucks.
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

plays poker on hard mode
Silver Level
Joined
May 16, 2006
Total posts
6,129
Chips
0
wow, yes, i'd actually fold this given your reads on the button. it's not that he can't have QQ/AK. there are rare times when someone does something completely unexpected of them because they're sick of folding/they suddenly feel like gambling/your sample is misleading due to extreme variance. maybe 20% of the time it's one of those fluky things. but there's just no way this guy doesn't have AA at least 75% of the time here imo. hell, his initial raise size is soooo damn strong. lol @ dead money or him being in position having anything to do with it. he's 9/0 with a 0 3bet. he wasn't raising that amount to get folds, that's for damn sure

i'm almost positive i would fold this in the moment too, not just in theory. which means this was probably the 20% that he had AK/QQ/??, ldo because i suck

FR seriously plays so nitty preflop nowadays with anything involving 3bets and 4bets that aren't in steal position (but that's mostly because they're 3betting light more vs. steal position; what most TAGs 3bet for value in those spots is still pretty nitty IME)
 
Last edited:
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
So if we are folding to his 5bet should we be 4betting in the 1st place?
 
Dwilius

Dwilius

CardsChat Regular
Silver Level
Joined
May 5, 2008
Total posts
7,584
Awards
34
Chips
0
quote=WVHillbilly;1184442]So if we are folding to his 5bet should we be 4betting in the 1st place?[/quote
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

plays poker on hard mode
Silver Level
Joined
May 16, 2006
Total posts
6,129
Chips
0
well you can think of it as a bet/fold situation possibly. if we think he can flat the 4bet with worse hands (namely AK/QQ) but will only reraise AA then 4betting has plenty of merit

it's weird though cause his 3bet size to begin with is so ridiculous, i doubt he does that with AK and it's hard to imagine with QQ either. but at the same time, because it is so small, flatting will probably make it go 4way, possibly 5way to the flop, and then we're basically set-mining? lol that 3bet from this player makes the situation so absurd
 
S

switch0723

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 2, 2007
Total posts
8,430
Chips
0
i didnt even begin to think of flatting the 3bet tbh, who does in that situation?
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

plays poker on hard mode
Silver Level
Joined
May 16, 2006
Total posts
6,129
Chips
0
yeah, i wouldnt cause we're gonna be in multiway hell and like wtf we have kangz, its just interesting to think about. i mean unless we narrow his 3betting range to AA, i've got to think a lot of other hands he's doing this with are flatting a 4bet. even super nits don't usually fold QQ/AK to a standard smallish 4bet there (again, if he can actually have those on the 3bet). especially since he's almost certainly a bad nit. he's just super unlikely to 5bet shove it, so you can actually 4bet/fold and have it potentially be the optimal play
 
kleitches

kleitches

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 23, 2008
Total posts
982
Chips
0
yeah, i wouldnt cause we're gonna be in multiway hell and like wtf we have kangz, its just interesting to think about. i mean unless we narrow his 3betting range to AA, i've got to think a lot of other hands he's doing this with are flatting a 4bet. even super nits don't usually fold QQ/AK to a standard smallish 4bet there (again, if he can actually have those on the 3bet). especially since he's almost certainly a bad nit. he's just super unlikely to 5bet shove it, so you can actually 4bet/fold and have it potentially be the optimal play

That's the thing though, we pretty much are narrowing his range to just AA, correct? That being so, I really don't like 4-betting and then folding. Meh, I like a fold but I guess the small 3-bet size makes things extra interesting.

Also, if we were the button and we had KK/AA, what is our 3-bet size going to be given the UTG+1 raise and two flats?
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

plays poker on hard mode
Silver Level
Joined
May 16, 2006
Total posts
6,129
Chips
0
That's the thing though, we pretty much are narrowing his range to just AA, correct? That being so, I really don't like 4-betting and then folding. Meh, I like a fold but I guess the small 3-bet size makes things extra interesting.

i'm narrowing it basically to that once he actually 5bets us, not necessarily on the 3bet. yeah i do think the 3bet and particularly the size looks ridiculously strong but i just can't find it in myself to put his range on AA right there, even though maybe it is, it very well could be that's the only hand in the deck he 3bets that size with, we just don't know. but i'm imagining it's not too far-fetched that he can decide to make that 3bet with QQ/AK/his lucky hand that he always wins with (and then call a smallish 4bet) but would rarely if ever 5bet shove them especially 150 BBs deep

Also, if we were the button and we had KK/AA, what is our 3-bet size going to be given the UTG+1 raise and two flats?

against just the $3.25 raiser heads up i'd usually be making it around 11 in position, give or take a $, so with two more callers i'd make it something like 16-18. $11 is just way too small here, and he knows he's not getting many folds to it. that's why it looks so strong (that and the fact that he's 9/0 over 136 hands =P). considering a couple of the guys already in the pot are likely to have ranges weighted towards pocket pairs, giving them such great implied odds to set mine is not good, but it's still something players do with huge hands sometimes because they're so afraid of "scaring everyone out" with their monster
 
Last edited:
GDRileyx

GDRileyx

Rock Star
Platinum Level
Joined
Feb 13, 2009
Total posts
357
Chips
0
I read this whole thing three times, and maybe I'm over my head here, but I think he's bluffing. The $11 bet is too small for aces, and if he folds he looks weak and might as well stand up, because you're going to raise him out of the pot every time thereafter. So he's hoping to bluff you off and look strong, and if he loses, he was going to lose his stack anyway, so get it over with, he'd rather gamble on the bluff than have his stack chipped down to nothing.
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

plays poker on hard mode
Silver Level
Joined
May 16, 2006
Total posts
6,129
Chips
0
he's 9/0 with a 0% 3bet over 136 hands. that means he voluntarily puts money in the pot 9% of the time. he has not raised preflop once in 136 hands. he has not re-raised once either. also "i have seen them flat a,k in the blinds in a 3way pot and have open limped/called jacks". and he just shoved in 150 BBs pre vs a 4bet from a TAG

so no he's not bluffing
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

plays poker on hard mode
Silver Level
Joined
May 16, 2006
Total posts
6,129
Chips
0
nevermind i think you're right he's probably bluffing
 
GDRileyx

GDRileyx

Rock Star
Platinum Level
Joined
Feb 13, 2009
Total posts
357
Chips
0
I didn't mean he was bluffing with air, just that he has a good hand less than aces.
 
S

switch0723

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 2, 2007
Total posts
8,430
Chips
0
I think you have a point, I think his bluffing range here is definately qq+
 
wsorbust

wsorbust

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 17, 2006
Total posts
2,425
Awards
1
Chips
1
Hmm. I don't think he has AA. They're joking, but I suspect two K's or maybe less. Eh. I put him on less. You raise pre and he can't limp so he pushes with lesser of a hand. Though I suspect there's going to be no way of telling this ahead of time if it is QQ+.
 
Last edited:
GDRileyx

GDRileyx

Rock Star
Platinum Level
Joined
Feb 13, 2009
Total posts
357
Chips
0
he's 9/0 with a 0% 3bet over 136 hands. that means he voluntarily puts money in the pot 9% of the time. he has not raised preflop once in 136 hands. he has not re-raised once either. also "i have seen them flat a,k in the blinds in a 3way pot and have open limped/called jacks". and he just shoved in 150 BBs pre vs a 4bet from a TAG

so no he's not bluffing

So, out of those 136 hands, he likely had AA at some point, and slow played them. Even more reason to think he didn't have AA this time. I'd put him on AK, and the kind of player who plays push reraises with AK 25% of the time.

But I suppose that since switch put him on AA and folded, she must have been right, and this whole thread is an ex-post facto circle jerk of everybody agreeing with her. I should have realized.
 
Folding in Poker
Top