$100 NLHE Full Ring: Flush vs river check raise on a paired board

Villain's stat (VPIP: 18.42, PFR: 11.23, 3Bet Preflop: 4.20, hands: 85)

Villain: ~$110
Hero: ~$120

Villain (UTG+2) raised to $3; Hero(CO) called with QJ of heart. BTN called.

Flop 6 9 6 two hearts. Villain bet $8, Hero called. BTN mucked.

Turn 8 of heart. Villain bet $18, Hero smoothed.

River an off suit 7. Villain checked, Hero bet $35 and got check raised all in. ???

Math says call??? Time out and mucked, not sure if its the right fold.

You don't even have a great bluff catching hand... why call? just bleeding. Also bluff catching a lot of fishies do that.

The math says to call if you're no worse than about a 2:1 dog. So what do you think his shoving range is, and does your flush beat enough of it to call?

But there's also another question. What did you think his range was that made your river bet +EV?

It is a difficult call. This check-raise having so many possibilities demonstrates a very strong hand. If it was a bluff is very well done and the fold for me is fine.

I think you can safely fold against someone like this. Just curse the poker gods and click fold.

Thanks for the insights guys. Re:Arjonius: With regard to his calling range, I suppose he could call with some trip 6s? KK or AA with a heart? pocket 10s that made a straight at the end? But I do agree that's a tight range. I am adjusting my game to make thin value bets and I thought this is a spot that I could get called by worse. Hard to master I guess.

What are we beating? I mean 10 high has a straight. 5 Has a straight...

Everything inbetween has paired. A and K are beating us. Which u hope ur villain has like J rag... or 23 lol thin to the extreme I know theres more hands I missed but that's enough to get the point.


It's a miracle you call and he has J2 or something

Aces2w1n said:

What are we beating? I mean 10 high has a straight. 5 Has a straight...

Everything inbetween has paired. A and K are beating us. Which u hope ur villain has like J rag... or 23 lol thin to the extreme I know theres more hands I missed but that's enough to get the point.


It's a miracle you call and he has J2 or something

Click to expand...

What in the world are you talking about? Hero has a flush...

LOL okay... *slowly walks away*


This is why colour is great for tired eyes I'm no longer analysing hands that aren't copied from pokertracker cuz it's easy to miss key things as seen by me

Card odds is screaming you to fold. Fold.

Well first of all your river bet was correct. Your opponent raised pre and then bet 2 streets. Villain could easily be in check/call mode with a big pair, but it's not that likely
another possibility is that villain decided to bet a pair for 2 streets of thin value and then transform their hand into a bluff when the flush card hit
when you flat both streets your hand becomes a bit transparent, and IMO villain might have recognized that you were value betting less than the nuts on this board
You were just deep enough to make this move viable.
The problem with calling is that your not beating the value range of a check raise. You have a bluff catcher, so you have to decide based on pot odds how often your opponent does this with nothing.
some % of the time its full house, a much smaller % of the time its bigger flushes, and a good % of the time you have the best hand
I think based on player stats folding is the best option, but I think a strong case can be made for calling - it's a really marginal spot either way, so whether you fold or call there is still thin value/loss in the long run