$100 NLHE Full Ring: Flopped set river decision on str8 board

WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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$100 NL HE Full Ring: Flopped set river decision on str8 board

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 18/11/2

Villain is 18/11/2 over 1500+ hands.

Best play on river? Thoughts on flop and turn? Bet sizing?

full tilt poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 401515
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP2: $14.00
CO: $177.50
BTN: $100.00
SB: $15.50
BB: $232.40
UTG: $48.90
Hero (UTG+1): $111.50
UTG+2: $102.50
MP1: $149.95

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG+1 with 8 8
1 fold, Hero raises to $3, 4 folds, BTN calls $3, 2 folds

Flop: ($7.50) J 8 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $4.50, BTN calls $4.50

Turn: ($16.50) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $9, BTN requests TIME, BTN calls $9

River: ($34.50) T (2 players)
Hero ???
 
tenbob

tenbob

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I bet closer to pot size on the flop ~ $6.50 or so, whats your standard size of a CB here ? Bet more on the turn as well ~ $14.

River is an ideal card for him to bluff as as well, so I'm thinking that c/c might be better than b/f, but its close.
 
slycbnew

slycbnew

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I'm guessing his btn stats show he likes to float? 18/11, most of the flat calling is on btn, relatively small 3bet % on btn? If so, the fact that he didn't try to steal on the turn and just called after timing a bit leads me to think he has a hand he would like to showdown on the turn (2 pair, AQ/KQ etc), likes his fd, or has a T and doesn't want to blow you off your hand. KT/KQ/KJ are the hands we're worried about (KT really shouldn't be there, but whatever), but there are a lot of other hands that play through the turn this way.

A lot of those hands aren't going to like seeing the straight complete. Depending on how much history we have w this guy and a gut feel for whether he's the type of reg who'll look for a better situation (i.e., won't want to call for a chop at best by playing the board), I like a $20ish bet on the river, fold to a raise (no way he raises without a K). If we're feeling like he can be cowed by sheer aggression into believing we were betting AsKs, $36ish might be better (bluffing that we're bluffing, if you get my meaning). If he's a bit of a cs, I skip the bet and c/c up to 2/3psb, c/f to larger.

My image is pretty nitty at the table, the $20ish bet is enough for me to take this down unless he's holding a K or is just feeling stubborn, so this may work more often for me than for someone w more agg stats.

I'm good w betsizing on flop and turn, though curious what others think of turn betsize - I tend to bet slightly larger on the turn, $10.50 to $11.50, and I've been wondering if I shouldn't be betting smaller in that spot, $8.50 to $9.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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Yeah, kind of wish I'd bet more on the flop but in general I make smaller cbets. I expect him to have a lot of draw/pair+draw type hands in his range and I kind of expected to face a flop raise with him thinking he has better equity than he does facing a set. I bet smaller on the turn more because I didn't want to check than anything else.

If we c/c the river it doesn't really matter if he's bluffing or not because we get a split pot at best. I was thinking it was either b/f or c/f.
 
KardKlub

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You have to bet more on this flop as you mentioned. If your worrying about making your hand easy to read because you c bet more, then add more bigger c bets to your bluff range.

The turn is a huge card, but also a good card for you to turn your hand into something else and bet out more.

If you still got action then c/c the river to a decent bet.
 
NineLions

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Awful flop for the preflop raiser 'cause this hits so much of the opponent's expected range, meaning if you're betting it you should have something pretty strong. That being the case I'm not sure what he flats preflop and the flop bet with; TT/99/89/T9/JT? KQ? If it's any hand with a T in it, I don't know why the flat to your turn bet, with two flush draws there.

I like a larger flop bet too, and when he doesn't bite on the flop raise chance I like Sly's analysis that it's a hand that would like to get to showdown after the turn call, which includes KQ but maybe 98/QJ as well? I'm less inclined to think it's a hand with a T.


If you're not going to c/c the river then it seems like playing chicken with potential split pots and like Sly says it depends on how you feel this guy would view that game. I'm probably inclined toward cc > bf > cf, but not by any great margin.
 
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switch0723

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Bet more on both flop and turn, it's a super super wet board and everything that calls the small cbet, calls a close to pot size 1.

As played 100% definately bet/fold river, he has so few kings in his range that this is a super easy spot to bluff. No king lines make straight up sense, and ones that kinda do are KT and KJ.
 
Z

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Its borderline. I think more Ks show up in villains range than people are giving credit for (KsXs KhJh,naked KJ, KQ?) and since we bet the turn its not the easiest sell to have a K in our range so we cant completely eliminate a bluff raise from opponent. I probably still bet this but I suspect its breakevenish

As far as the flop bet size comments, I agree that betting less allows us to cbet less in spots like these, but you can follow the guidelines of value betting or cbetting less on drier boards and cbetting or value betting large on wet boards which allows you to bet more on this flop.... or just cbet just a little smaller and value bet just a little bigger in general. Is this completely exploitable? Yes. Will villains at .50-1.00 know how to properly pick this up and adjust? Probably not
 
ukaliks

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u've gotta big hand on the flop, so u wanna bet big. + there's draws too so u dont wanna price them in. IMO.
I'd c/c the river too. K could b in his range but that jus sucks if he does.
 
WVHillbilly

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I REALLY hate check/calling the river and I'm surprised to see that advocated so much. Basically if we c/c the absolute best we can do is get our ~$16 back and the worst that we do is lose an additional amount when he has a King. If instead we bet, we win if he folds and lose the same amount if he has a King (because we fold to a reraise).
 
slycbnew

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I REALLY hate check/calling the river and I'm surprised to see that advocated so much. Basically if we c/c the absolute best we can do is get our ~$16 back and the worst that we do is lose an additional amount when he has a King. If instead we bet, we win if he folds and lose the same amount if he has a King (because we fold to a reraise).

I agree b/f is much better. But if we do check, it's such a nice board for him to bluff at, and a K shouldn't be a big part of his range (KJs, KJo, and KsQs are the only K's that ought to be there, maybe KT but if he's any good that shouldn't be there), and he should be thinking a K isn't a big part of your range either, that I really hate folding to say a half psb after checking.

Guess another way to put this is to say that checking the river is a big mistake altogether, assuming I'm right in thinking K's aren't in the majority of his range - if it's a big part of his range, then b/f or c/f are closer together.
 
KardKlub

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Any AsXs would also be there with the way he played he hand. So although you can't warrent betting more for value, you can call the bluff which i think is a high probability
 
Dorkus Malorkus

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Check/calling here is awful. I can see an argument for bet/fold and maybe an argument for check/fold but c/c is just plain bad because we don't really stand to gain anything by picking out a bluff (as opposed to say the river just being checked behind) - the only possible justification for c/c would be if we think villain is tricky enough to raise a river bet with air or something. An aside to there not being that many Kx hands in villain's range is that there also aren't many Kx hands in our range from villain's perspective, so I guess maybe that's possible given the 'right' opponent.

Anyway, I bet/fold on the 'lesser of three evils' basis. :)
 
ImolAyrton

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I dont think he has his straight here. I think you get a split. The only hand I would put him on if he has a King is KJ
 
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switch0723

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as a side note, if villains river aggression is high, although 1.5k hands probably isnt enough to get an impression on true river aggression, c/r river is far superior to b/f
 
WVHillbilly

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as a side note, if villains river aggression is high, although 1.5k hands probably isnt enough to get an impression on true river aggression, c/r river is far superior to b/f

Now this I like. Villain's River AFq was 40% iirc.
 
Sean Pilgrim

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Is it possible this player is playing As 9s ? I'm pretty sure you would have gotten a re-raise if villan had KJ. I'm pretty certain by the small calls I'm putting him on middle pair on the flop with a flush draw.

QT would have re-raised the flop
KJ would have re-raised the flop
I only see a suited ace from here, I think it's definitely going to be a chop.

The c-bets gave him just enough to start chasing especially with the bet ratio on the turn lowering gave him more pot odds to try to draw out.

No way he has much of a hand it is possible villain has QJo but that board is pretty ugly and scary to bet into without a free rolling hand such as Ks Ts, which shouldn't be in his range either. But I smell As 9s

Ks Ts would have been a 2nd hand I could possibly put him on but not KTo.

I'm saying 25%-30% pot value bet on the river here. IMO... I may be wrong but I honestly believe that it's a chop on the river and you were way ahead until the river.
 
Z

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Is it possible this player is playing As 9s ? I'm pretty sure you would have gotten a re-raise if villan had KJ. I'm pretty certain by the small calls I'm putting him on middle pair on the flop with a flush draw.

QT would have re-raised the flop
KJ would have re-raised the flop

KJ doesnt necessarily raise the flop, nor does KsXs. Villain can also show up with KQ sometimes, peeling one with overs and a nut gutshot (not the worst play if he can put you on a Q some of the time that you will not get off if a T drops.

I agree he doesnt have KT (hed raise the turn) or any ten for that matter, but hands like KJ KhJh, KQ, and KsXx all could certainly be in his range. Im not saying we check-fold the river, but just that the chance of him having a King are more than a lot of people are giving credit for

If I did bet the river, I wouldnt bet 25% bc we are never folding out any chops for such a small bet (thus we r just trying to prevent ourselves from being bluffed by making this bet), Id rather lead with a larger bet which stands a chance of picking up the pot (villain is calling hoping to chop and the bet isnt a baby size anymore) and also completely takes the way of a bluff raise (as it becomes incredibley expensive and risky from villains eyes).
 
WVHillbilly

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I checked, he bet $21, and I folded. Thought at the time a bet/fold would have been better and I think it was fairly well confirmed here.

Thanks.
 
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