$100 NLHE Full Ring: Crying Fold or Shove at Turn with Overpair?

$100 NL HE Full Ring: Crying Fold or Shove at Turn with Overpair?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 22/15/3

No real history with this guy but I'd been playing like 19/17 over about 80 hands at this table and raising liberally in LP. With such a wet flop is this a crying fold here at the turn, or are we shoving it in hoping to see a draw and/or overs from our villain?

Full Tilt, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

MP3: $169.30 (169.3 bb)
Hero (CO): $100 (100 bb)
BTN: $117.15 (117.2 bb)
SB: $216.45 (216.5 bb)
BB: $101.70 (101.7 bb)
UTG+2: $140.90 (140.9 bb)
MP1: $159.20 (159.2 bb)
MP2: $105.25 (105.3 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with A A
4 folds, Hero raises to $3.50, BTN calls $3.50, SB folds, BB calls $2.50

Flop: ($11) 5 6 8 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $10, BTN calls $10, BB folds

Turn: ($31) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $22, BTN raises to $55, Hero ??

i think it's fine to get it in, you're basically at the top of your range, and i figure him to have lots of combo-draw-type hands in his range that he's willing to go to town with on the turn (he just called flop to entice BB to call obv), so you should be good here quite often iyam

I think it's okay to get it in too. He's most likely raising sets on that board a lot of the time, and other than that and 97 there's not much more that makes sense that's beating you. There's a good chance he has overs + flush draw or a pair and a straight draw trying to get something like exactly what you have to fold. I don't think folding is awful either, especially without reads.

i see no way the villian is on a str draw.. he may very well have been set mining and hit.. he may also have an overpair to the board, or if he is spewy he may have a str/flush draw. i honestly think he may have set mined and hit his set tho.. just my opinion.. you may very well be good here.. would love to see the results.

vanquish said:

i think it's fine to get it in, you're basically at the top of your range, and i figure him to have lots of combo-draw-type hands in his range that he's willing to go to town with on the turn (he just called flop to entice BB to call obv), so you should be good here quite often iyam

Click to expand...

^^^Agree. I like your pf raise, like the flop bet and would love to see a shove ai on turn. I don't like the spades on the flop - you mentioned it - I don't put opp on straight draw either.

He probably has a pair with a draw.. rerais all in

Ya it's a crappy spot, kinda have to get it in.

RESULT ....

I shoved, he called with 55 for the set, it held. I felt find about the shove and now feel good about my line.

Yea, i think you had to shove it in. I actually put him on 8 7 but i was way wrong lol.