$100 NLHE Full Ring: Bottom set OOP 4-flush board on river

WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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$100 NL HE Full Ring: Bottom set OOP 4-flush board on river

Villain is 24/3/2 over 150 hands.

Full Tilt, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

BTN: $104.15 (104.2 bb)
Hero (SB): $123.10 (123.1 bb)
BB: $115.25 (115.3 bb)
UTG+2: $100 (100 bb)
MP1: $125.60 (125.6 bb)
MP2: $292.45 (292.5 bb)
MP3: $139.50 (139.5 bb)
CO: $113.60 (113.6 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with 2
spade.gif
2
diamond.gif

3 folds, MP3 calls $1, 2 folds, Hero completes, BB checks

Flop: ($3) 2
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Q
diamond.gif
T
club.gif
(3 players)
Hero bets $2.50, BB folds, MP3 calls $2.50

Turn: ($8) 9
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(2 players)
Hero bets $4.50, MP3 calls $4.50

River: ($17) 6
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(2 players)
Hero ???

Are we better off bet/folding, check/folding, or check/calling?
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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This is supposed to be a bet/fold, and I'd lean towards that since villain doesn't seem very good or aggressive. I'd bet like $10.
 
Caseace48

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Yeah i'd lean towards Bet/fold, more likely to dump a lower club to any bet...definitely a sticky spot though
 
eagle jim

eagle jim

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I would agree, I think we have to bet/fold this. Check fold could leave us folding the best hand.
 
S

Syfted

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I wonder if he's really going to fold the Qc if we bet out...
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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I wonder if he's really going to fold the Qc if we bet out...
No, he won't. But its Clarkmeister's theorem. The idea is that if we bet out $10, our bet has to get a fold 41% of the time to be profitable. And given the board texture, they likely fold that much.

Also, if we check here, villain will almost never bet QT/Q9/AQ/hands we beat. However, sometimes villain will call with those hands.

If we check, most villains will polarize their range into value bets & total bluffs if they bet, leaving us to play a guessing game of how much they bluff. Also, they will check back all hands we beat that they don't think are worthy of turning into a bluff.

So the point is, unless villain bluffs a TON, we should be betting this board. Often, new players will check and hope for a free showdown. But if they get that free showdown, they almost always win the hand. So the free showdown was worthless. We know that betting $10 here will produce enough folds to show a profit, and sometimes we will get called by worse. Thus, we should bet the river, because we know this move is profitable. However, check/calling & check/raising requires us to figure out villain's bluffing frequencies & make guess about their range, which allows us to make a mistake.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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I had never heard the term Clarkmeister's theorem until now. Always learning something.

Anyway, I figured it was a bet/fold spot but wanted confirmation.

FWIW I bet $10.50 and he folded.
 
eNTy

eNTy

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Agree with whats been said so far.
Just wondering, can you explain ur bet sizing on turn WV ?
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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The turn completes a ton of draws and because the pot is small (it was limped) I'm not trying to make a big pot with my weakish hand on that board.

Still I want to bet because I don't want to give up the initiative and I don't want to give a free card if he is still drawing. Betting a little more than 1/2 pot keeps the pot small while not giving him the right price to draw.

The smallish bet allows him to call with a wide range of hands that we beat on this scary board and I think it also sets up the river bluff if the 4th club hits a little more credibly than if we had been betting bigger.
 
eNTy

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Ok, sounds reasonable.
But what if he already hit the flush ?
How would you know..
 
WVHillbilly

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I wouldn't, of course, unless he raises. I really don't think this villain is going to bluff raise on that board very often. If he raises the turn small I may call and hope the board pairs. If he makes a big raise / shoves I can fold confidently. I really don't see any downside to betting the turn smallish.
 
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