Originally Posted by Syfted
I wonder if he's really going to fold the Qc if we bet out...
No, he won't. But its Clarkmeister's theorem. The idea is that if we bet out $10, our bet has to get a fold 41% of the time to be profitable. And given the board texture, they likely fold that much.
Also, if we check here, villain will almost never bet QT/Q9/AQ/hands we beat. However, sometimes villain will call with those hands.
If we check, most villains will polarize their range into value bets & total bluffs if they bet, leaving us to play a guessing game of how much they bluff. Also, they will check back all hands we beat that they don't think are worthy of turning into a bluff.
So the point is, unless villain bluffs a TON, we should be betting this board. Often, new players will check and hope for a free showdown. But if they get that free showdown, they almost always win the hand. So the free showdown was worthless. We know that betting $10 here will produce enough folds to show a profit, and sometimes we will get called by worse. Thus, we should bet the river, because we know this move is profitable. However, check/calling & check/raising requires us to figure out villain's bluffing
frequencies & make guess about their range, which allows us to make a mistake.