$100 NLHE Full Ring: Baluga'd eh? Still have TPTK + Overcard + Nut FD

$100 NL HE Full Ring: Baluga'd eh? Still have TPTK + Overcard + Nut FD

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 13/10/2.8

Villain is a rock nit McTighty. I get baluga'd here but I still have an over + nut flush draw. Usually without the fun stuff I fold this ... what do you think? Against a set I have 8 outs (2 of hearts pairs the board), but I just can't imagine he has anything less unless it's a combo draw himself or 89.


Full Tilt, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

BB: $100 (100 bb)
UTG+1: $40.70 (40.7 bb)
UTG+2: $101.50 (101.5 bb)
Hero (MP1): $105.95 (106 bb)
MP2: $94.85 (94.9 bb)
MP3: $100 (100 bb)
CO: $100 (100 bb)
BTN: $12.50 (12.5 bb)
SB: $206.40 (206.4 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP1 with Q A
2 folds, Hero raises to $3.50, 2 folds, CO calls $3.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($8.50) Q 8 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $6, CO calls $6

Turn: ($20.50) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $13, CO raises to $42, ???

If u think 98 is in his range isnt JT and T9 there also?
What is villain fold to cbet? does he float alot?
Cause if he floats/doesnt fold to cbets alot i like geting it in cause the turn just puts so many TP+Str8draw and MP+str8draw type hands on the board.
Does villain actualy flat QJ,T9s type hands IP here?

Against a 22,88,QQ,AQ,KQ,98 range we still have 38% equity and by just adding T9 we actualy become a favorite so i just cant fold here, arwwww in imo!

Board: Qc 8h 2d 9h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.794% 26.79% 00.00% 224 0.00 { AhQh }
Hand 1: 73.206% 73.21% 00.00% 612 0.00 { QQ, 99-88, 22, 98s, 98o }

Fold. Add onto this the fact that if you hit your A or Q you never know if it's good so you really don't even have perfect implied odds here. Pretty easy fold as your TPTK is worthless in this spot. You have a flush draw. You're not getting odds. Fold.

i like a c/r or a c/c on the turn more

c/r turn against a tight player doesn't make any sense, i have no idea what you'd accomplish by doing that

i actually like a c/c against a nit, it's pretty hard to get 3 streets of value out of a worse hand without improving, and a lot of the worse hands that will fold the turn might call the river if the turn goes check check. but mostly it just really really sucks when we bet and get raised, and i hate having to throw away a decent amount of equity to the nuts (which is what you have to do in this situation)

if u feel he has 9 8 or some other small two pair u should shove as u are getting laid the right price. If u put him on a str8 or set which is very believeable as on a Q82 rainbow board, its very easy to slowplay as set as very few danger cards with come on the turn. As it happens the turn brings lots of str8 and flush draws so he raises to protect his set. SO if u do put him on the set then u should fold because all u have if a naked flush draw (hitting 2 pair or trips is no good) so u have 9 outs once so fold as the odds are not good enough to call.

first ask yourself .. what do i have beat in this spot.. JT is deffinately in his range as is 22, 99, 88, and he may he slow played KK or AA. id fold and look for a better spot.