$100 NLHE Full Ring: ATS Flops OESD, Turns FD, PSB Remaining, Bet or Check?

WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
10 hands on Villain so no stats for you!

Villain has $46.50 remaining on the turn.

Full Tilt - $0.50/$1.00 No Limit Hold'em (9 players)
Full Tilt Hand Converter Tool from CardsChat.com

SB: $69.00
BB: $119.00
UTG: $75.00
MP: $116.00
MP+1: $100.00
MP+2: $125.75
LP: $64.00
Hero: $100.00
BTN: $147.50

Pre-flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO and dealt :3s4: :4s4:
5 folds, Hero raises to $3.50, BTN folds, SB calls $3.00, BB folds
Flop: ($8.00) :jc4: :5s4: :6h4: (2 players)
SB bets $5.00, Hero raises to $19.00, SB calls $14.00

Turn: ($46.00) :jc4: :5s4: :6h4: :10s4: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero ???
 
Last edited:
ben_rhyno

ben_rhyno

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 4, 2010
Total posts
1,642
Chips
0
Shove imo, you have a little fold equity and 15 outs if he calls
 
KardKlub

KardKlub

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 11, 2008
Total posts
527
Chips
0
I don't think your getting him to fold anything he called on the flop with so take a free card. You've turned added equity but there are better situations IMO.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
Villain is a fish, and folds nothing. Check.
So you don't think 78/67/57/77-TT are in his range for calling the flop raise or you just don't think he folds even those hands to a shove?
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 2, 2007
Total posts
8,819
Chips
0
K, we know its profitable to semi-bluff because its almost always profitable to semi-bluff when our draw is this big and stacks are this short. We just need to know if its more profitable to check back the turn.

I'd give villain a flop calling range of this without really knowing anything about him and assuming he calls a flop raise with 2nd pair hands: Range {TT-55, AJ, KJ, QJ, J9+, J8s-J7s, 87, 86s, 76, 65s}

If we assume that villain will call a flop raise with 2nd pair, that gives him a turn range of 60.2% of hands that are top pair or better and a small number of combo draws that he isn't folding. So we can expect to get folds ~35% of the time if he folds all his stuff worse than top pair.

If he folds 2nd pairs to a flop raise, his range has 82% of hands that are top pair or better and a small number of combo draws that aren't folding. So we can expect to get folds ~15% of the time if he folds his 8 out straight draws.

Now my argument is that villain might not fold either of these hands. If he calls a flop raise with 2nd pair, or an 8 out straight draw, he may not fold any of those since he already called a flop raise. And just from experience, I'd say we get a fold around 10%-15% of the time.

So....

*15% of the time we make $46.
*85% of the time we have ~31% equity in a $139 pot (43.09) and we put in $46.5 more.

So the EV of shoving is (0.85*-$3.41) + (0.15*$46) = -2.89 + 6.9 = $4.01

Now someone go through the laborious process of figuring out what the EV is of checking back and you'll have your answer (sorta, since I made a lot of assumptions).

I've included a poker razor screen capture below, just in case anyone is curious about the numbers I'm pulling out.

 
NineLions

NineLions

Advanced beginner
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 20, 2006
Total posts
4,979
Chips
0
Villain is a fish, and folds nothing. Check.

Plus he's flatted and donk/called the flop, indicators that there's a good chance if you do hit the river that he's bad enough that you won't have any trouble extracting. Meaning the part of the reason for semi-bluffing draws because you might not collect when you hit, may not apply here.
 
Z

Zybomb

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 12, 2009
Total posts
372
Chips
0
My standard would be to auto ship this (we have a monster draw, are repping an over pair pretty well and have tons of fold equity) but due to circumstances here, Im tempted to check behind

- Villain has a 7/10th stack. While not always accurate, it leads me to believe he is bad

- Bad players call too much

- Villain donk/called the flop. A lot of the time this is how bad players play top pair and have no intention of folding the turn, especially short stacked

- Because of all of this, I think that if we do hit our straight or flush, we are getting called every single time, particularly from this opponent and particularly after we've checked behind the turn after raising the flop (their default goes to "obviously this is a bluff"). Sure villain has 87 some of the time and folds, so every single time is in reality "very often" but regardless. So I don't think we are losing much value the times we hit -- it just becomes an issue of how often is our bet getting folds... imo much less than it's supposed to in general, here against this opponent in this spot
 
REI53

REI53

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 6, 2010
Total posts
98
Chips
0
I don't understand why people here are saying to shove...really he can look the river for free...u think the villan will fold his hand on that turn? Maybe he's drawing to, or have TPTK, or a set, doesn't matter, he got to have something otherwise he wouldn't call that rr on the flop...IMO.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
I don't understand why people here are saying to shove...really he can look the river for free...u think the villan will fold his hand on that turn? Maybe he's drawing to, or have TPTK, or a set, doesn't matter, he got to have something otherwise he wouldn't call that rr on the flop...IMO.

I agree he has something but the question is how many of his something hands does he fold if we shove. I think most have it right in that he never folds TP so the question becomes how many hands less than TP does he call the flop raise with and how many of those (if any) give up on the turn to a shove. fwiw I think c9s analysis is pretty spot on and he folds about 15% of the hands he called the flop raise with.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 2, 2007
Total posts
8,819
Chips
0
So the EV of shoving is $4.01.
So just real quickly, because I like numbers:

We make a hand about 31% of the time on the river. If we give up every time we miss, and v-bet every time we hit, we need to make $13 every time we hit for our EV to be $4.01.

If we assume villain calls the river with the same frequency he calls the turn (85%), then we make $46.50 85% of the time we value bet, or $39.50 every time we hit.

However, some of our draws will dominate his. For example, if he holds 78, and a [9s] hits on the turn, we get that hand to call a shove that would normally fold the turn. But also sometimes he'll make a full house or a bigger flush, so I think we can safely assume those two negate each other.

The last little wrinkle to consider is that some of the cards that hit us are scary. So he could fold the river on a flush card.

So yeah, like I said before, we need to make $13 every time we hit for checking the turn to be better than shoving the turn, and I think we can make ~$39.50 on average just doing a little back of the envelope calculation. Even if villain folds half the time we hit instead of 85%, we're still making way more than the $13 we need.

In conclusion, I don't think its close. While shoving is +EV, I think the EV of checking is something along the lines of $10, or more than double that of shoving the turn. So even if some of our assumptions are wrong, we still have enough margin for error here that checking is still likely the best line.
 
C

ComplexPlaya

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 14, 2008
Total posts
1,347
Chips
0
Wow, c9 rocking the /thread. I hope I'll learn how to do the poker math stuff soon, it's really missing in my game.
 
Top