$100 NLHE Full Ring: 150bb deep Overpair cbet get shoved on

WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
$100 NL HE Full Ring: 150bb deep Overpair cbet get shoved on

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 19/8/2.2

full tilt poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 506995
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $100.00
UTG: $109.10
Hero (UTG+1): $146.40
MP1: $188.05
MP2: $144.20
CO: $23.30
BTN: $147.45
SB: $100.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG+1 with Q :spade: Q :diamond:
UTG calls $1, Hero raises to $4, MP1 calls $4, MP2 calls $4, 4 folds, UTG calls $3

Flop: ($17.50) T :heart: 2 :club: 7 :heart: (4 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $12.50, MP1 folds, MP2 raises to $140.20 all in, UTG folds, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???


Villains stats over 4.5K hands (fold to cbet - 59%, raise flop cbet - 12%)
 
thepokerkid123

thepokerkid123

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 31, 2009
Total posts
917
Chips
0
Fold.

It's either a coinflip or we've got two outs.
 
KardKlub

KardKlub

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 11, 2008
Total posts
527
Chips
0
Would someone good ever play a set like this? probably not.
Would villian flat AA, KK? probably not too much dead money.
2 pair? 107s very thin if he called with this (odds or not)

He must be on a draw, it's the only logical reason he would shove here.
mega draw 89h or an agressive draw AQh AJh KQh KJh.

Im probably always calling here.
 
slycbnew

slycbnew

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 8, 2008
Total posts
2,876
Chips
0
I'd kinda expect a player w those stats to play draws other than a straight flush draw much more passively, and our equity against a straight flush draw specifically aren't great either.

I hate it, but I'm folding.
 
Last edited:
Z

Zybomb

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 12, 2009
Total posts
372
Chips
0
Pretty easy call IMO unless we have a read that villain just doesn't overshove draws and will overshove sets (not that common IMO)
 
ImolAyrton

ImolAyrton

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 20, 2008
Total posts
183
Chips
0
raise flop cbet - 12%)


I dont think he is bluffing than. I would fold here, unless you put him on a flush draw
 
Poof

Poof

Made in the USA
Silver Level
Joined
May 21, 2008
Total posts
14,419
Chips
0
If he folds to C bet 59% thats high right? I don't run hud so I really have no idea what is normal.
For him to shove like that I am thinking he has aces. My first though was the draw but that is quite the shove for a draw. imo anyway
Tens would be the only other thing I would put him on, to call the preflop raise a pocket pair would be acceptable.
 
thepokerkid123

thepokerkid123

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 31, 2009
Total posts
917
Chips
0
PooffyFooffy said:
If he folds to C bet 59% thats high right? I don't run hud so I really have no idea what is normal.
Click to expand...

It means he is mostly playing fit or fold when he isn't the pre-flop raiser.

You will make a pair on about 1/3 of flops and have a pocket pair some of the time. Folding 59% basically means only continuing with mid pair or better and a couple of draws.




With that being said, big crazy bluffs don't happen often enough to show up in stats so figuring out his bluff frequency here is something a HUD can't do for you.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 2, 2005
Total posts
13,642
Chips
0
I think having AA vs QQ is actually a difference here since weaktight regs like this do slowplay overpairs, then go nuts trying to 'protect' their hands on boards like these...but even then I don't think our equity is great.

I see it as a barely ahead/way behind situation. Big combo draws, and sets/two pair. Don't really ever see him doing this with JJ/Tx/99/whatever.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
Me fold? NEVER! (Spewtard, calling-station ftw)

I timed down and figured it was extremely close and since it probably wouldn't be a huge mistake against his range (fwiw I weighted draws ahead of sets) I called.

He showed KJhh. Turn was a non-heart Q and the river paired the ten, so I took down the pot.

I actually Stoved it before posting and I was a small (54%) favorite against his hand. Against the range I put him on it was a coinflip.
 
Z

Zybomb

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 12, 2009
Total posts
372
Chips
0
WVHillbilly said:
Me fold? NEVER! (Spewtard, calling-station ftw)

I timed down and figured it was extremely close and since it probably wouldn't be a huge mistake against his range (fwiw I weighted draws ahead of sets) I called.

He showed KJhh. Turn was a non-heart Q and the river paired the ten, so I took down the pot.

I actually Stoved it before posting and I was a small (54%) favorite against his hand. Against the range I put him on it was a coinflip.
Click to expand...

Not result oriented, but like I originally said before the results -- good call. We can't fold this hand bc villain's range is weighted heavily towards draws and big draws since basically no one plays sets like this (and if he did we should have a read to indicate that) and although occasionally someone will play 2 pair in this way a T72 board leaves one unlikely 2 pair (T7). Like I originally stated, unless we have a read that villain will super overshove sets or that he will not do this with draws (unlikely with most villains) we call
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
Zybomb said:
Not result oriented, but like I originally said before the results -- good call. We can't fold this hand bc villain's range is weighted heavily towards draws and big draws since basically no one plays sets like this (and if he did we should have a read to indicate that) and although occasionally someone will play 2 pair in this way a T72 board leaves one unlikely 2 pair (T7). Like I originally stated, unless we have a read that villain will super overshove sets or that he will not do this with draws (unlikely with most villains) we call
Click to expand...

Yeah this was my read as well and I don't think this guy calls preflop with any hands that can make 2 pair on this board. Like I said I figured it was close so with the amount of $$ already in the pot I just closed my eyes and called.
 
StormRaven

StormRaven

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 16, 2009
Total posts
2,510
Chips
0
slycbnew said:
I'd kinda expect a player w those stats to play draws other than a straight flush draw much more passively, and our equity against a straight flush draw specifically aren't great either.

I hate it, but I'm folding.
Click to expand...

^^^I agree. It would be unusual for this guy to have flopped a set and push to avoid being drawn out on or to have a straight flush draw or any flush draw or AA KK and be this aggressive, but with any of these, I've seen it done, it's rare and it's not worth finding out. I hate it to, but fold.
 
slycbnew

slycbnew

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 8, 2008
Total posts
2,876
Chips
0
Interesting... how do you interpret the shove w the fd for a guy w stats like that? Is it a sort of standard play for him (in other words, am I giving a guy w those stats too much credit, he's capable of making moves more frequently than I'd thought) or was it a spazz?
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
He figures his equity is really good against everything but sets and that I'll fold very often so he shoves. He then doesn't have to play the turn if he misses and gets to see 2 more cards. I don't fault his play at all. The real problem is that most people don't play their sets the same way. In general sets still wants all the $$ to go in but they're much less liekly to overbet shove ime.
 
Top