$100 NLHE Full Ring: 13/11 - 3bets turn?

acky100

acky100

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poker stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 1802979
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

MP1: $48.50
MP2: $103.68
CO: $100.00
BTN: $122.84
SB: $115.44
BB: $40.50
UTG: $138.77
Hero (UTG+1): $100.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG+1 with 3 :club: 3 :spade:
UTG raises to $3, Hero calls $3, 6 folds

Flop: ($7.50) 3 :heart: J :diamond: 8 :heart: (2 players)
UTG bets $4.73, Hero calls $4.73

Turn: ($16.96) K :diamond: (2 players)
UTG bets $12.50, Hero raises to $33, UTG raises to $131.04 all in, Hero feels like he is about to be set over setted???

River: ($201.50) 8 :spade: (2 players - 2 are all in)


villain is 13/11 reg with about 10% UTG range. Wondering if i should be making folds here on the turn as he probably never takes this line with anything else than sets? I only flatted pre because btn or blind was big fish. Wonder if i shouldn't of bothered raising turn, or if that's okay but it's a raise fold? gay hand.
 
John A

John A

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What about aggression?

With those kind of stats, it's one of the few times I'd consider laying a set down. Depending on how aggressive he is, his range will be heavily weighted to sets like you said. Very few combo draws he could have here other than AKh/AJh. 10% utg and the guy is 11% total. That's super weird.
 
bgomez89

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wondering why we don't want to raise the flop.
 
WVHillbilly

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Do you think he'd stack AA here? If not, fold. If so, call.
 
Deco

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I raise the flop. I doubt this guy can make the fold on the flop with his overpairs given he can't even play positionally (10% UTG raise 11%PFR total).
As played I call.

As for postflop if it weren't for the double flush draw I'd fold fast but people go wild on double flush draw turns. AK/AA are definite non 0% possibilities. We're putting $60 in to a $140 we need to win 30% of the time.
33/JJ/88/KK are locks with 12 combos
AA/AK have 18 combos unnegated. We need ~6 combos to make the call.
Is there a 33% chance villain could play AA/AK this way? I say yes.


Villains who don't fold here are more likely to shove than they are to flat given the nature of the board. When facing a player who can't even play positionally I don't think there folding their AA/AK often enough to fold ourselves on this board.
 
Deco

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Assuming we have the convergence given his lack of positional play we may even see a flush draw or KJ from time to time.
I'd also add every decision in this hand is close. I wouldn't lose sleep at night over the flop or turn decisions regardless of results.
 
Jurn8

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flatting flop ewwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww

fold turn, one of the fun FR folds, unless he can see that you maybe FOS here as youre perceived range is pair plus turned draws, he probs discounts sets from your range when you dont raise that flop so may jam AK/AA. But IDK if he knows this.....
 
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