$100 NLHE 6-max: Weird river raise from nit

$100 NL HE 6-max: Weird river raise from nit

Villain is pretty nitty, small sample though. Something like 16/10.

Am I retarded thinking I can ever call here?

party poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

BTN: $97 (97 bb)
SB: $136.41 (136.4 bb)
BB: $42.45 (42.5 bb)
Hero (MP): $123 (123 bb)
CO: $160.60 (160.6 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP with J:heart: Q:heart:
Hero raises to $3.50, CO calls $3.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($8.50) 8:club: 3:heart: J:club: (2 players)
Hero bets $6, CO calls $6

Turn: ($20.50) 5:heart: (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($20.50) 6:spade: (2 players)
Hero bets $14.50, CO raises to $44, Hero ...

also, thoughts on overall line and whether we should bet turn or not?

"A river raise is always the nuts" is not a bad starting point. And he can plausibly have almost every set (including peeling the flop with 66 if he perceives you as bluffing often). I don't think he'll ever have a better jack, though, so his range is really polarized. But he needs to have a bluffing frequency here of over 30% or so to make it worthwhile to call and I just don't see that happening.

... And I like betting the turn, because there's a lot of hands that will take another card off if your image is aggressive (JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 99, TT and club draws) which you can get value from now but not on the river, and if an overcard falls on the river you'll have difficulty extracting value even from the stronger part of his worse-than-your-hand range.

I should fold, you cant beat much here.. you only have top pair with medium kicker

ImolAyrton said:

I should fold, you cant beat much here.. you only have top pair with medium kicker

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...which means nothing unless we compare it to his range. Calling may still be bad here, but not because 'we only have top pair med kicker', but rather 'TPMK is bad against his range'.

FP: yes, river raises are usually the nuts, but do you really see a set (aside from a luckboxed 66) playing this way?

I do agree with betting turn.

I mean, so many people are compulsive slowplayers and will check back all sorts of monsters because they hate it when you fold. It's player dependent though and it sort of pays to find out. So with that in mind, calling just to find out what the hell he's up to might be worth it, but I don't think the call is +EV in a vacuum.

Yeah I'm not really arguing that this is a fold (which I did), but I don't see sets aside from 66 in his range that often. I know some people love to slowplay but I reeeally don't think I've ever seen someone check back a set, let alone on a board this draw-heavy...

That said, if I were right and non-66 sets weren't in his range then that doesn't leave much for us to be afraid of except some weird float that got there or something...but that's what's got me weirded out and thinking about a call here.

also do you mind hopping on skype for a min?

I would have bet turn for value/info 1/2 pot... if he came over top then I think set, in any case even nits can bluff, so if he reads u as weak he mebbe is taking it on river... a call is not impossible.
A slowplayed set is def possible... whats the AF? If sneaky enuff to slowplay, sneaky enuff to bluff? Hmmm...

Well I agree it doesnt make much sense but calling a river raise from a 16/10 is not something I really do often as nits usually have it and river raises are usually nuts at this level.

I also bet the turn to keep controlling the action and mostly for value. Was your plan c/c c/c(any non heart)?

With the turn line the way it was, I wonder what peoples thoughts on the river play are?

In that position I would check call that river. You don't want to play a big pot with that hand, and after your turn check shows huge weakness... Afterall, he knows you don't have a set otherwise you would have bet that turn for example....

So I'd bet the turn, but with that line, I'd check/call a smallish bet on the river.. fold to anything more than $20 really..

I bet turn all day. As played though I think a river ch/c would be fine as e could bluff missed draws or if he is the passive kind your play is fine (with the river fold) because all the draws missed thus he probably calls with 2nd pair here if not worse (maybe 77?). Problem is not many hands worse than you so if he's the type to bet missed draws even a small part of the time I like ch/c better here. But yeah I fold all day here. Nits don't raise river as a bluff, especially after ch/ch turn.

A little late on this but I have a question. Was the $14.50 on the river a value bet or a block? I don't see this as ever being profitable with a hand as weak as JQ or even JA for that matter. I'm a bit of a river nit I guess. I'm not sure I see the value in betting this and am way more likely to check call. If he missed his draw then he'll just fold, if he slow played, or more likely, backed into a hand, he'll raise.

As it stands his bet is pretty callable and I seriously doubt any decent player makes this play without something better than TPTK especially considering you've shown strength every step of the way. I fold.

Until I have enough stats or a read saying this guys capable of this I fold.

Four Dogs said:

A little late on this but I have a question. Was the $14.50 on the river a value bet or a block? I don't see this as ever being profitable with a hand as weak as JQ or even JA for that matter. I'm a bit of a river nit I guess. I'm not sure I see the value in betting this and am way more likely to check call. If he missed his draw then he'll just fold, if he slow played, or more likely, backed into a hand, he'll raise.

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Out of position, it's close between checking and betting for value since when we check we might get him to bet some of the missed draws, like Zach said. I'd still lean towards a bet, though because there's no way he's folding 99, TT or JT (or even 98 or 77) to a river bet after the turn was checked through.

And conversely, in position this is a trivial value bet because now we can no longer make money from his missed draws by checking.