$100 NLHE 6-max: Turning mid PP into bluff on paired turn

$100 NL HE 6-max: Turning mid PP into bluff on paired turn

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 37/28/2

Just wanted a line check here on a play I am trying out. I only had about 60 hands on villian so I couldnt really use other stats except he only 3bet 4%(I know tiny sample but it seemed he wanted to see a lot of flops). He has been floating a few times in position and calling multiple barrels.

On this hand I dont really like doubling since he is calling a lot, and while Ax type hands are in his range I am not really thrilled about triping here as I am not sure how he handles a third barrel and feel he will play nearly perfect and call with 88-JJ type hands and fold out his air and lower PP. Similar reason I do not like doubling and checking as I am not sure if he is checking back his bad hands or betting and I cant really call a bet with what I know.

I think a check raise folds out a lot of higher pairs and overcard hands which I would rather not see a river as well as his air he just floated with. Thoughts?


Full Tilt, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

BB: $117.40 (117.4 bb)
Hero (MP): $103.65 (103.7 bb)
CO: $193.70 (193.7 bb)
BTN: $334.25 (334.3 bb)
SB: $77 (77 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP with 7 7
Hero raises to $3.50, CO folds, BTN calls $3.50, SB calls $3, BB folds

Flop: ($11.50) Q 4 3 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $7, BTN calls $7, SB folds

Turn: ($25.50) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $12, Hero raises to $28

I don't mind this line i'd consider making the turn around 30-34.. If he calls I. Re evaluating the turn trying to get to showdown cheaply ..

Well if he calls I am c/f certainly, I do agree I should raise higher. Against a better player I certainly would have, even against this guy though I should have made it higher, I guess my thought process was that this is probably what he thinks I would do with a Q and he will probably play it the same way either way, but that may not be right. One thing I didnt mention is that since I didnt have any hands on him going in, I assumed he was bad and nothing he did before this changed my mind, he has some idea about aggressiveness and floating but I doubt he is really thinking about my ranges and the % of the time he needs to be good to make the call profitably, but a bit bigger would probably be better.

I think it's a really bad spot for bluffing. I don't expect JJ-88 to be in his range very often (generally a 40/30 will 3bet them pf), and as such we'd be pushing out mostly worse hands with our c/r. Not only that, but I seriously doubt he'd fold those considering how he's played them to this point.

I either just bet for value or if I think he's floating lots I'll c/c turn to let him get his bluffs in. He doesn't ever really have that much equity against us and I'm pretty happy calling pretty much any river when we play it passively if he is floaty.

edit: Having said all that I think this is ok for value against someone so fishy and aggro, but it's pretty thin and most of the time I just bet for value or c/c.

I agree with Chuck here. This line could be good for some super thin value, but wtf do you fold out here that beats us? Your hand has so much showdown value on this board, that turning it into a bluff is just silly.

well i obviously thought about that but i do not know how he plays on the river. If i new he would be firing regardless then I would c/c c/c but I have no idea. This way I thought I could make my river decision easier(as in im making it now) and much cheaper(assuming since he sucks he is looking at my c/r as stronger than what it is with the small raise that I should have probably made a bit bigger). plus he has a ton of overcards in his hand that id rather not see any which is unlikely.

I also doubt he will bluff the river if he calls here so I have some value if he calls with overs and misses.

What do you guys do on the river c/c anything? fold to A or K? I think it puts me in a tough spot OP.