$100 NLHE 6-max: TPTK raised small on turn

ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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$100 NL HE 6-max: TPTK raised small on turn

Villain is a tricky (read: overaggressive reg) who hates my guts and loves to **** with me. 19/16, folds %33 to cbet, raises %24, folds %40 to turn.

I really doubt he slowplays anything on that flop, but now he wakes up with a baluga on the turn. I can sort of see him doing it with a hand like A3s or QTd or something, and was thinking at the time he could do it with tons of air just because nothing else makes sense.

Jam? Call? What do we do on various rivers if we call?

Keep in mind we're 140 effective.

party poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

BTN: $240.20 (240.2 bb)
Hero (SB): $204.02 (204 bb)
BB: $138 (138 bb)
MP: $107.88 (107.9 bb)
CO: $142.35 (142.4 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with A J
3 folds, Hero raises to $3.50, BB calls $2.50

Flop: ($7) 8 J 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $5, BB calls $5

Turn: ($17) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $14.50, BB raises to $35, Hero ...
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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I think it's really close between folding and calling (with the intention of check/calling river) because while he raises a lot of flops, he doesn't have to do it with the nuts in position, BvB. He could easily - I'm tempted to say "usually" - just flat sets on the flop hoping you'll continue to hang yourself.

What I think makes calling a decent option is that some of the time this is a protective raise with something like QJ or 99, intending to take a free showdown. I really don't like the idea of us putting more money in than we have to, though, because all we accomplish by that is folding out his losers and paying off more to his winners.'

... and I don't think folding is a bad play, either. He'll have what he's representing quite often.
 
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grvicious

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I call here and check/call the river. as you stated he likes to mess with you and will be doing this with all kinds of hands on the turn all of which he will barrel on the river and you pick up tons of value by using this line imo
 
widowmaker89

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Well I dont like a fold very much if he is out to get you and overagressive reg with 2 flush draws on board(diamonds probably more likely since he is probably raising river with spaed but never know). He is out to get you, never folds, and its BvB I cant find a fold here. I am assuming also that you play back at him as well? I dont really hate getting it in here if thats the case since there are a lot of scare cards. I dont hate calling and c/c pretty much all rivers either since he will bet all of his air, which imo is the majority of his range.

Maybe i am overestimating the dynamic between you two but I dont really like a fold at all, other two are pretty close but I think we need to c/c almost any river if we plan on doing that since I doubt this villian is giving up his bluffs, especially on a scare card.
 
blankoblanco

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vs. some opponents i could definitely find a fold cause of baluga and so on, but based on

Villain is a tricky (read: overaggressive reg) who hates my guts and loves to **** with me.

i can't see letting it go. he's just FPSing here way too often. i think you're deep enough to call and c/c river, had it started at 100 BBs effective i'd just jam it, up to around 110-120, and then i think it starts to get close between jamming and the c/c plan

unless he really thinks you like to **** with him also, in which case jamming starts to become a better play even with 140 BBs
 
BelgoSuisse

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I think when we start jaming marginally good hands against a tricky reg, he has essentially won the mind game. With the money we lose when he shows up with what he reps and the money we don't make when we prevent him from bluffing his air, it's just massive spew. Also, even tricky regs do show up with the goods a lot more often then we'd like to believe.

When you jam and it works, you feel oh so proud, but most of the time you've essentially won nothing because he folded a hand you were crushing anyway, so jamming only earned you the very little equity villain still had in the pot, but you took out the opportunity for him to suicide bluff the river, which probably cost you at least as much.
 
ChuckTs

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I know what you're saying, but regs at these stakes (even the tricky, seem-like-they're-good ones) tend to call with draws 'just because', even if they're not getting odds. Getting strong draws to call would be the only reason, maybe next to a random Jx hand that does this for value and may call, though I'm not sure how often either hand type balugas the turn.

I also feel kind of lost on the river here when we call. Do we call blanks? Do we fold spades? Diamonds? T? 9? Q? K? etc
 
BelgoSuisse

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River is painful when we call turn, yes.

Well, I read you blog and you say you're looking for a lower variance style. I get the feeling your guts tells you to jam here, and it's probably not a real mistake, but most definitely a very high variance play.

The real low variance alternative here is to check/call TURN instead of 2nd barreling it. It may lose some money from Jx hands, although you can probably extract a second bet on river against those. On the other hand, it profits more from random floats, and it's probably about the same against draws if villain is somewhat aggro and bets his draws on turn.
 
BelgoSuisse

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More generally, i think 2nd barreling TPTK oop on a non scary card is only really good against calling stations. Against regs, I think it's better to 2nd barrel a range made of monsters and draws (including weak ones), while we check/fold trash and check/call TPTK kind of hands (of which we check/call some % on river when barreled).

You can probably also check/raise a few monsters/draws/TPTK if you really feel the need to add some further balance, but i don't think it's absolutely needed.
 
widowmaker89

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More generally, i think 2nd barreling TPTK oop on a non scary card is only really good against calling stations.

Folding to 33% of cbets and 40% of Double Barrels isnt a calling station?

Also, I dont know how good he is but if he is good and tricky then we either have to call every river here or raise now (or fold). We dont have to only play bluffs and nuts hard against tricky, legitimately thinking players since we can be looked up by a lot of weaker jacks who think our range is air and nuts (or draws) which would favor air and draws if we have a lot of history. I rarely ever do this since I dont run across many people who I think are good enough and actually willing to get it in as a bluff catcher when you play this hard but there is some merit to balancing our range away from nuts and air here if we think he is paying attention to that and willing to stack weaker jacks.

I realize im probably giving him too much credit with this thinking, but considering he is super aggro and doesnt fold and its BvB I dont mind raising it up here if we plan to fold to some rivers since he can just get us off so many (can also catch up on) rivers. If we do call I dont know if we can fold the rivers, I think our plan is to extract more out of his bluffs and his range is still pretty wide so to guess what does or doesnt hit him seems futile(its BvB for god sakes vs aggro who fights us hard)
 
widowmaker89

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Do we know his BvB playing? Stats are fine but Im sure you two have tangled before, is he flatting a lot pf and floating flops? Moreso this session?
 
widowmaker89

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well then we must be well ahead of his raising range here, plus its BvB which I would imagine makes him much more likely to play like this with air/draws/weaker made hands. Overall he is flatting 43% of flops, considering the history/BvB this number is even higher I would imagine. He obviously likes to bluff, looking at it in his shoes this board doesnt really hit our range that hard and DBing is probably more draws/air than made hands(especially if we are considering c/c this turn then our range is very polorized and much more air) and a raise will work a lot. If you are villian here and know Hero checks behind TPTK type hands wouldnt you reraise here?
 
sky4ever

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Well, since he folds rarely and raises a lot that means he`s doing this kind of plays with a wider range so you don`t have to worry to much about a set. I say you should call his raise and check-call the river.
I would not fold here TPTK against an ultra-aggressive reg.
 
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Skidmark

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i dont like calling here, he will fire on the river no matter what even if he misses his draw. So its a jam or fold imo. I would call i guess, but he can easily have a set. Folding and jamming are very close and considering your deep folding even maybe a better option.
 
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