$100 NLHE 6-max: TPTK + Flush Draw ... Jam on Flop?

icemonkey9

icemonkey9

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$100 NL HE 6-max: TPTK + Flush Draw ... Jam on Flop?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 40/14/2

Villain looks retarded over 60 or so hands. We jamming this flop?

poker stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

UTG: $101.75 (101.8 bb)
Hero (MP): $103 (103 bb)
CO: $100 (100 bb)
BTN: $109.50 (109.5 bb)
SB: $93.75 (93.8 bb)
BB: $279.55 (279.6 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP with Q
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J
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UTG folds, Hero raises to $3.50, CO folds, BTN calls $3.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($8.50) 9
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Q
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6
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(2 players)
Hero bets $5, BTN raises to $15, Hero ?????
 
widowmaker89

widowmaker89

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Yes, we obviously have tons of equity against his range and there are a lot of scare cards that may halt him putting more money in. Its going to be very tough to get money out of a flush being OOP. Bet size is kind of odd since a shove is a pretty good sized overbet but any bet commits us. I honestly dont know what is right here either 4bet or just shove.

btw why is flop bet on the smallish side?
 
vanquish

vanquish

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raising seems like the best play, pick a size that you think he'll reshove over thinking he has fold equity (such as $29)
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Yea he's raising bluffs, any queen, draws (all of which are worse than yours), sometimes middle pair, slowplayed overpairs, monsters, and we have more than enough equity against the better hands to get it in.

We're just playing this like we have a set and try to induce from him.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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What vanq and chuck said.

Also, you're using an AHK script for bet sizing, aren't you? It seems to me like you're always cbetting smallish in all the hands you post. Is there a rational behind this or are you playing on auto-pilot?
 
icemonkey9

icemonkey9

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Normally I'd cbet 66-75% so in this situation like $6 to $6.50 ... the AJ hand is a separate deal, that was a big bet-sizing-blunder ... the cbet size here in this hand was 62.5% but I'd be curious on a "standard flop pot" like this one what your recommended bet sizing % would be at flop and turn.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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the cbet size here in this hand was 62.5% but I'd be curious on a "standard flop pot" like this one what your recommended bet sizing % would be at flop and turn.

it depends on a lot of factors. Villain's fold to cbet%, the drawiness of the flop, the size of the pot, ...
 
vanquish

vanquish

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Normally I'd cbet 66-75% so in this situation like $6 to $6.50 ... the AJ hand is a separate deal, that was a big bet-sizing-blunder ... the cbet size here in this hand was 62.5% but I'd be curious on a "standard flop pot" like this one what your recommended bet sizing % would be at flop and turn.

one thought is betting more when you have a good hand and less when you have a bluff (as a general guideline)
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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also betting more on drawy boards and less on dry boards, both as bluffs and for value.
 
icemonkey9

icemonkey9

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RESULT:

I went ahead and jammed his raise, and he called with AQo. Unfortunately I didn't improve and lost a stack.
 
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