$100 NLHE 6-max: TPTK 200bb's deep vs. Reg. I raise the flop cuz I want his stack.

$100 NL HE 6-max: TPTK 200bb's deep vs. Reg. I raise the flop cuz I want his stack.

Villain is a 21/15/28%(2.5) over 1100 hands. He's a reg, I'm a reg, so he probably thinks I'm a spew-monkey retard. Other stats available on request. Who likes my line?


Ultimate Bet, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players

BB: $280.40 (280.4 bb)
MP: $198 (198 bb)
CO: $287.40 (287.4 bb)
Hero (BTN): $216.70 (216.7 bb)
SB: $39.85 (39.9 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with Q♣ A♦
MP folds, CO raises to $3.50, Hero calls $3.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($8.50) Q♠ 4♥ 6♦ (2 players)
CO bets $6, Hero raises to $22, CO calls $16

Turn: ($52.50) 2♠ (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $42.25, CO calls $42.25

River: ($137) 9♦ (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $148.95 and is all-in

umm, what calls here that you beat?

bw07507 said:

umm, what calls here that you beat?

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What in his range beats me when I get to this river? Do you really think he can check a set to me here on this river? I think my image is such that this guy is going to be willing to bluff-catch a lot of hands.

I just want to clarify before i post, your doing this for value right?

Since on such a dry board the only bluff catching hands that are calling you are AA and KK. What range are you putting him on that you think hes going to call river with? If you think he will call with k,q then i suppose there is some rationale, but I don't see how they would call with k,q. If you think they will call with q,j and q,t then i suppose its better.

What in his range beats me when I get to this river?

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I play AA/KK the exact same way he does here

c9h13no3 said:

What in his range beats me when I get to this river?

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well AA/KK without a doubt. edit: beaten by bw

but also:

c9h13no3 said:

Do you really think he can check a set to me here on this river? I think my image is such that this guy is going to be willing to bluff-catch a lot of hands.

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he can definitely check a set to you on the turn and river. given your raise on the dry flop your range is polarized enough, everything you're going for value with are most likely going to keep betting. if anything your image by far encourages checking to you, not donkshoving into you. he could c/r the turn for sure but he doesn't have to

i mean i'm guessing none of this happened since you can't see how you can be beat. i just think you quite easily can be. that being said, i don't have much experience with a spew-monkey image so it's hard for me to say how often he's bluffcatching. i just think it's easier for him to call w/ KK/AA, since he can hope youre doing this with AQ, than for him to call w/ KQ. since i don't think he's ever putting you on QQ/KK/AA given no 3bet pre, AQ is a kind of large part of your possible value range so it makes a reasonable difference. depends so much on what he really thinks of you, i guess

1) I'm not saying I didn't value-town myself, I'm just arguing that because of my image, his calling range is not AA-KK. I figured everyone would argue that this was spew, and that I couldn't get value from worse. So I argue the other side of the coin. If I can make an argument that you guys think is aight, then the play might not be pure spew. But I'm posting this hand because I definitely think this line is non-standard.

2) This reg cannot let go of 1 pair hands 200 bb's deep, hence why I'm sitting at this table. I guarantee KQ is in his calling range, and I don't think he folds any of the queens in his range to a flop raise either. Think about it, do you fold QJ to me when I raise this flop from the button? My aggression factor is about 5, my aggression percentage is 41%. How many barrels are you willing to call? Now instead of yourself on a forum, imagine your a sticky reg who I've been messing with. How many barrels do you call with Qx?

blankoblanco said:

AQ is a kind of large part of your possible value range

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My 3-bet percentage is around 15%, prolly higher on the button. Don't you think that he puts AQ in my 3-betting range as well? Wouldn't you assume that my range here consists of just air, sets, funky two pair, and 53? Would you expect me to raise the flop with QJ? Knowing that, why is Q3 any different from KQ if you're villain?

Idk, I don't think regs alter how they play big hands either. They make a set, they play it as such. They don't think about my image, and all that jazz. Their brain is just filled with "OMG I HAVE A SET, WOOOO BIG POT!" When they're holding a 1 pair hand, they want to play, and my image often gives people a good excuse to keep playing.

If I could create a theorum, it'd go something like this:

"When a good aggressive player calls you on 2 consecutive streets, and then checks the river to you, he is bluff catching. Villain has top pair, 2nd kicker at best. No villain at stakes I play at is capable of checking a big hand to you for 3 streets."

I play as spewy as about anyone can possibly play and make a profit. And regs don't really adjust well to me at all, and don't trap me nearly as much as you think they do.


That said, I think that when I get to this river, and he's checked every street, his range is AQ, QJ, KQ, AA, KK. Maybe QT. Plug that into P-stove, and you get:


Hand 0: 43.285% { KK+, AQs, KQs, QJs, AQo, KQo, QJo }
Hand 1: 56.715% { AQo }

If we take out all combos of QJ, we get:

Hand 0: 49.401% { KK+, AQs, KQs, AQo, KQo }
Hand 1: 50.599% { AQo }

And its a neutral EV shove, which is awesome for metagame. Throw in QT, and it'd be super hawt. The only way this is bad is if he folds all but AQ+, and has slowplayed some sets.

So given that there are a ton more combos of Qx than KK+, and that villain really hates folding 1 pair hands, I think I can ship this river and be happy about it.

Okay, I promise I've stopped editing that post . It might not make much sense, but yeah, there's my thought process.

of course Q3 isn't really different than KQ, and TT isn't really different either, i was just using KQ as an example to represent all those hands

yeah you do have a lot of bluffs in your range, your image and line looks quite a bit like you're FOS, just ends up depending on how courageous villain is with making a hero call for 200BBs. like i said, i don't have much experience with a spewy image and how players (fail to) adapt to that

also i don't really agree with your theorem especially since you're specifying "good" players. i think it's more true with mediocre players since they just get scared that it might get checked back, and they're not thinking of ranges. given your range, this is almost certainly the best way to play a flopped set against you imo. after bet/calling that flop texture, if he donks a real-sized bet or c/r's anywhere his hand looks so huge that you should even be able to fold a lot of hands that you might value bet when checked to. and that's not even looking at the times you have a bluff where checking is clearly greater

if you really feel like he's going to believe youre FOS and is prime to go with his read on a hero call for 2 stacks it can probably be good, you're right that you don't have too many legit hands in your range. just based on the way i play ive never had quite that dynamic

Edit: I suck at poker stove, and those numbers are for preflop. Here's the actual numbers on the river:

Hand 0: 38.710% { KK+, AQs, KQs, QJs, AQo, KQo, QJo }
Hand 1: 61.290% { AQo }

Hand 0: 52.174% { KK+, AQs, KQs, AQo, KQo }
Hand 1: 47.826% { AQo }

Results are still roughly the same, however. Villain has to be calling QJ here, and they have to never play a set this way. Idk, I think its pretty close in this spot.

and they're not thinking of ranges.

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How many regs do you think actually think in ranges? This may be just because I play on UB, but I think the average 100NL reg is a giant TAGfish. I think there's probably 2-3 that actually think in ranges.

This guy probably isn't thinking about my range, hence why he's exploitable. He's probably thinking "I Haz top pair, good kicker, this guy is spewy and bluffs a lot, I'm going to call and hope."

Meht, we're starting to kick around the same arguments in a circle. So I just want to sum my assumptions up real clear in some bullet points that people can analyze without reading the whole damn thread:

1) He doesn't have a set in his range. I don't think this guy is good enough to play a huge hand like this that passively.

2) He's sticky to 1 pair hands, and I think he can find a call here on the river with Qx, given my spewy image. He certainly doesn't fold these hands on the flop, and I think if he makes it to the river here with Qx, he's likely to call 'em all.

3) I think my giant bet size is better than just betting small. I'm hoping that he'll bluff catch me, and shoving looks bluffier.

4) All UB tables are 200 bb's deep, so he's less likely to consider 200 bb's as a "double stack". This reg buys in for 200 bb's. Thus, I don't think that makes a huge bearing on how he plays this hand.

i think this might be one of those spots where the guy calling ur flop raise spirals him into calling all the way to the river with a marginal (read: one-pair, non-monster) hand, so i think it's pretty reasonable to take this line

Results: Villain had KQo, and called the river fairly quickly. I'm still not sure if I'm being results oriented here with this play. If QJ is in his calling range, then I think its okay, but this is at least specific to this particular reg who can't fold 1 pair hands. I think vs. other regs who aren't nearly as sticky, I like the flop raise, but I'd rather see a smaller river bet where I could bet/fold. Maybe bet like 35$ on the turn, half pot on the river. That way, I'm playing a pot that's around 125bb's or so with TPTK, which is about right for most regs.

I'm late for this post, and while the results have been posted, in my defense I knew what I was going to say before I scrolled down to the last post:

When someone who raises a lot of flops (I guess I don't know that C9 does, but I'll assume for the time being that it's decently often), regs call with all SORTS of hands. I used to think that the only hands I'd get action from if I raised a flop like this with TPTK would be hands that had me crushed, but experience tells me it's definitely not so. 88-JJ calls. QJ and KQ call. They just don't believe the raise, and assume that you're full of it.

Now, having said that, I don't like the river bet sizing. You want value out of TT here, and while (in hindsight) he was clearly on a bluffcatching mission and might even have called with 88, I'd have to have a specific read to know that he calls big bets on the river light. On the upside, getting looked up when you overbet the river and your range is NOT polarized is very metagame +EV.

Personally, I'd make the turn bet smaller to induce lighter calls (apparently not necessary vs. this guy) and also to make the river pot size such that I can make a small value bet and still fold to a shove.

Oh, and getting 200BB stacks in with TPTK and win vs a non-idiot reg is awesome. Serious brag.

F Paulsson said:

Oh, and getting 200BB stacks in with TPTK and win vs a non-idiot reg is awesome. Serious brag.

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It wasn't so subtle was it .

https://www.pokertableratings.com/replayer/index.php?site=absolute&id=1416547019&hash=1418030694

F Paulsson said:

Oh, and getting 200BB stacks in with TPTK and win vs a non-idiot reg is awesome. Serious brag.

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Yes and no. Depends on how much it cost C9 to establish the image that justifies the non-idiot reg's call...