$100 NLHE 6-max: Top set facing 3x river shove

IPlay

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PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 120.74 BB
Hero (UTG): 225.04 BB
MP: 154.43 BB
CO: 167.98 BB
BTN: 144.5 BB
SB: 112.55 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A:spade: A:diamond:

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) A:heart: T:club: K:spade:
BB checks, Hero bets 4.25 BB, BB calls 4.25 BB

Turn: (15 BB, 2 players) 2:club:
BB bets 8 BB, Hero calls 8 BB

River: (31 BB, 2 players) 9:spade:
BB bets 105.49 BB and is all-in
 
ConDeck

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I guess it depends whether you think he is capable of bluffing here then, and over such a small sample we don't really have enough information to say that.

The problem is we block like every fishy over-value bet so there are so few combinations left:

The range you beat (which I'm sure you know) is like:

AcTd,AcTh,AcTs,Ac9d,Ac9h,Ac9c,TdTh,TdTs,ThTs = 9 combos

The range you don't beat (obviously):

QJs, QJo = 12 combinations.

Against the total range we are like what 35%?

I mean does he ever do this with KT, K9 or complete air? I don't think so, it just kinda screams a fishy "I want it all cos I have the nuts" to me...

I say its a fold and wait for a better spot... Never thought I'd say that about a flopped set of AA haha!

In reality though, whether I could throw this away even if I felt like I should would probably depend on mood and how well I am playing that day lol.
 
atlantafalcons0

atlantafalcons0

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Raise turn, get the value that is available.
 
IPlay

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Raise turn, get the value that is available.

I thought the turn bet was kind of polarizing in the sense that it was really strong, or really weak so I didn't want to raise here. I see a lot of fish flop a huge hand OOP and call flop then donk turn because they are afraid of me checking back. I wanted his weak holdings to lead again on the river instead of just folding to a turn raise.

Does A9 and AT think I am calling with AQ or AJ? Wouldn't we expect more of a pot sized river bet from those hands? I got to say I agree with the statement that its a fish wanting to get the max from the nuts here or some sicko bluff but I don't think calling off my stack here hoping to see a bluff from an unknown fishy player is a very good play. I folded FWIW.
 
ConDeck

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Does A9 and AT think I am calling with AQ or AJ? Wouldn't we expect more of a pot sized river bet from those hands? I got to say I agree with the statement that its a fish wanting to get the max from the nuts here or some sicko bluff but I don't think calling off my stack here hoping to see a bluff from an unknown fishy player is a very good play. I folded FWIW.

You would think so... and it depends how fishy I guess. Tbh I was more looking at best case scenario against recreational players "over-valued" hands.

Fold was correct play...
 
c9h13no3

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I can't fold sets to fish.
 
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JKo2theQQ

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I think this is a really weird spot. I would agree that because u have so little invested here, it should probably be a fold. It seems to me that this fish saved you some money. Send him a thank you card. It is possible he tried to trap preflop with KK or post flop with TT but i don't think I would pay to find out. You see that more often at micro stakes anyway.
 
Aces2w1n

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I just think at the micros they don't bluff enough like this to justify.

But even when u climb to 10NL c9 is rigtht you call this everyday. Once you get a certain level like 10NL the fish play a different way and overbluff these spots all day everyday. I lost money because I was folding too much against these spots, I grew a pair and found out what was being played and you'd be amazed. I ran into 23 ... small pp some really gross shoves happen out there lol.

So I understand where c9 is coming from.
 
XXPXXP

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I would call AI
but I think this time you might beaten.

his range, top two pair, river set or middle set, str8. some random weak pair+broken str8.

call is profitable.
 
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wildice13

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desperate attempt by a fish to get all the money in with the nuts on the river because he's seen it on tv. good decision to fold, exploited opponent in a spot delivered by the deck when someone's supposed to go broke. props
 
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wildice13

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I just think at the micros they don't bluff enough like this to justify.

But even when u climb to 10NL c9 is rigtht you call this everyday. Once you get a certain level like 10NL the fish play a different way and overbluff these spots all day everyday. I lost money because I was folding too much against these spots, I grew a pair and found out what was being played and you'd be amazed. I ran into 23 ... small pp some really gross shoves happen out there lol.

So I understand where c9 is coming from.

completely with you here and for that reason i much prefer 10nl and 25nl, it's so much easier, fun and $profitable to check call 2 or 3 streets oop with 2nd pair at 10nl+ than it is picking up 2.5bb at 2 or 5nl isolating the ever growing number of limpers
 
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hffjd2000

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Are you willing to see his hand with that overbet?

Personally, I would not gamble or catch bluff and see the hand.

He might even be very excited with his nuts and so he overbets.
 
IPlay

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I really just don't like the logic of "he fish, I call" also the biggest problem here is that we block almost all the combos of hands that villain can be over valuing on the river. I honestly think his range here is more likely to be AK, 1010 or QJ which is a range we are behind of.

I also don't know for sure if villain is a fish because of under 20 hand sample and fish at 100NL are thinking somewhat better then your typical 10NL fish.
 
c9h13no3

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and fish at 100NL are thinking somewhat better then your typical 10NL fish.
Not really, they just get more aggressive. They're more gamblers/thrill seekers the higher up the fish go.
 
MrBadAss

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Easy call, look fishy to me, he might have a Q or J that don't hit the straight or he might be too stupid to value bet 2 pairs k9/J9/KJs,did you folded?
 
MrBadAss

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I really just don't like the logic of "he fish, I call" also the biggest problem here is that we block almost all the combos of hands that villain can be over valuing on the river. I honestly think his range here is more likely to be AK, 1010 or QJ which is a range we are behind of.

I also don't know for sure if villain is a fish because of under 20 hand sample and fish at 100NL are thinking somewhat better then your typical 10NL fish.

AK don't play oop, TT 3bet for sure because a card higher than his pair will stop his action, QJ yeah he can have but it's a few combos, much more he can have 2pairs or missed straight
 
atlantafalcons0

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I thought the turn bet was kind of polarizing in the sense that it was really strong, or really weak so I didn't want to raise here. I see a lot of fish flop a huge hand OOP and call flop then donk turn because they are afraid of me checking back. I wanted his weak holdings to lead again on the river instead of just folding to a turn raise.

Does A9 and AT think I am calling with AQ or AJ? Wouldn't we expect more of a pot sized river bet from those hands? I got to say I agree with the statement that its a fish wanting to get the max from the nuts here or some sicko bluff but I don't think calling off my stack here hoping to see a bluff from an unknown fishy player is a very good play. I folded FWIW.

You certainly missed value on the turn no matter how you look at it. If the dude flopped the joint it's a cooler. I wouldn't be afraid to start getting my stack in on the turn. You beat way too many combos on the turn to worry about QJ exclusively. I'm 3betting the turn with the motive of getting as much money as I can in the pot at that point.
 
John A

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How fishy in 20 hands though? We talking 80/50, or 40/10? I see all kinds of the first ones, and even after 50-60 hands they are close to those numbers on Bovada.

I'd still raise the turn. Especially if he's fishy. They'll stick around if you don't raise too much w/ more hands than you'd think. As played I think you can fold the river. When I've looked at 2x+ overbets on Bovada w/ the bovada hand converter and known cards, I've rarely seen bluffs. Maybe 2 or 3 in hundreds of hands. The only thing you have to evaluate in this spots is... how fishy is fishy? lol Because there's plenty of overbets with hands they think are for value. Not sure about 3x though.
 
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These are the types of spots I tend to go broke :( I have seen some crazy bluffs though. But if I saw 20 hands of crap play, I'd probably call. It's when someone plays decent that I get scared. Nothing wrong with playing lower variance here I think. But I worry I'll start folding too much and get too Nitty.
 
IPlay

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He was more of a 23/12 type of fish
 
atlantafalcons0

atlantafalcons0

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Most likely they'll just get it in on the turn and you don't have to make some hero call on the river with top set.
 
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