$100 NLHE 6-max: Top Pair, Get Called to River, he throws in big bet. Recommended move?

icemonkey9

icemonkey9

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$100 NL HE 6-max: Top Pair, Get Called to River, he throws in big bet. Recommended move?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 24/20/3

Villain is a decent TAG player, folds to 3bet 60%. His call at the turn had me spooked. Maybe I gave that away with the river check, but WTF is he doing this with that i got beat ... air/bluff?? ATo!?

poker stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

BB: $114.60 (114.6 bb)
MP: $108 (108 bb)
CO: $29.70 (29.7 bb)
BTN: $106.90 (106.9 bb)
Hero (SB): $117 (117 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with A
diamond.gif
J
club.gif

2 folds, BTN raises to $3, Hero raises to $10, BB folds, BTN calls $7

Flop: ($21) K
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2
spade.gif
A
spade.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $13, BTN calls $13

Turn: ($47) 3
spade.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $20, BTN calls $20

River: ($87) 4
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(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $44, Hero ???
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
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Callllllll. Btw, I'm not sure how much value there is in a turn bet, or the 3-bet pre. Playing AJo OOP in big pots really sucks, and I don't think TP 2nd kicker with a K on the board is a 3 streets stack off kinda hand, even playing 5-max button vs. blind. But idk, the turn bet isn't terrible I guess.
 
icemonkey9

icemonkey9

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Ya I was wondering about the turn bet size.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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****ing hell just lost a huge post after getting logged out...

Basically I don't like our situation much. I don't expect him to flat pf, call flop and turn with A9, then turn it into a bluff on the river, nor do I expect him to do that with complete air. I guess sometimes this could be a really floaty QJ/QT/JT with a spade, but unless I've got good info with history on our opponent that says he'll do so, I'm folding. I personally have been expecting too many floats/bluffs in the last 100k hands or so and have paid dearly for it. Most of the time they just have it imo.

I don't like betting turn much either unless he's the really floaty type, in which case I'm betting bigger and maybe calling a shove. In general against your average 24/20 though, I expect AQ, rarely worse aces (they'll call pf/flop/turn but rarely bet riv), monsters and KQ with a spade that don't bluff the river often imo.
 
BelgoSuisse

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i'm not a big fan of the 3bet preflop. I'm not a big fan of the cbet. I hate the turn bet. I don't really like the bet sizing on flop and turn as you just give him correct odds to chase with about anything.

Really shitty spot on river. Don't think it's a big mistake to either call or fold. Some bluffs in his range as he's in a great spot to represent whatever he wants, but most of the time you're behind.

Overall you're putting yourself in a situation where you're playing a big pot oop with a marginal hand. That's obviously not what you want to do in terms of game plan. Folding preflop would probably be better than this line, tbh.
 
icemonkey9

icemonkey9

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RESULT:

I tossed the river. Like ChuckTs said, I can't imagine he's doing all this with something I have beat here.
 
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