$100 NLHE 6-max: River bluff on a KKQ flop

A

A9ofHearts

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This hand was played on Bovada on a Saturday night.

P1(CO) $20 - VP:40 PFR:40 AF: W:0| STL:50|100 3B:33|100 CB:0|100 N:-38.69 Hands:5
P2(BTN) $210.85 - VP:32 PFR:21 AF:21.0 W:22|50 STL:35|82 3B:10|0 CB:79|75 N:71.25 hands:90
P3(SB) $145.80 - VP:44 PFR:33 AF:Inf. W:0| STL:100|67 3B:25|0 CB:100| N:14.94 Hands:9
Me(BB) $96 - VP:24 PFR:12 AF:0.3 W:25|100 STL:100|67 3B:7| CB:0|100 N:31.35 Hands:25
P5(UTG) $40.20 - VP:32 PFR:2 AF:1.8 W:18|25 STL:10|50 3B:0| CB:|100 N:-34.80 Hands:57
P6(MP) $100 - VP:18 PFR:14 AF:4.0 W:38|0 STL:27|100 3B:6| CB:75|0 N:-118.40 Hands:44


Pre Flop: Me(BB) with :9s4: :9h4:
P5(UTG) folds, P6(MP) folds, P1(CO) raises 4.69, P2(BTN) folds, P3(SB) calls 4.19, Me(BB) raises 11.76, P1(CO) folds, P3(SB) calls 8.07


Flop: :kd4: :qh4: :ks4: (2 players)
P3(SB) checks, Me(BB) checks


Turn: :7h4: (2 players)
P3(SB) bets 18.10, Me(BB) calls 18.10


River: :10s4: (2 players)
P3(SB) checks, Me(BB) bets 65.14, P3(SB) folds


Results below:
Player 3 folds
Me(BB) wins 63.41
Preflop I don't really like the squeeze very much after I thought about it because I think if he jams I get it in ahead some of the time, but I'm not really thrilled with that now that I'm thinking it over more.
Player 3 pretty much insta-checked the river and I didn't really think he would do that with a hand that could call an all in.
 
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ScottishMatt

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I don't get it. What are you wanting analysis on?

Flop play? River bluff? Street-by-street?

It might be a very good play, it might not. I think the most important factor here is your thought process concerning how you are planning to play the hand out. Why did you check the flop? Why call the turn? Why shove the river?
 
Mr Sandbag

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I was going to say that I don't see how preflop 3-betting with 9s9h OOP could be profitable in the long run, but then I looked at the stats of the CO raiser. Good move.
 
ElmarLCH

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I guess you should call preflop and check/call the flop. (but the 3bet wasn't bad either, but the info is not that reliable, only 5 hands!!)
If PS1 doesn't cbet ont he flop you should bet the turn, because you most likely have the best hand. I guess PS3 is on a draw, which can be as low as 45s.
He just tries to steal it on the turn, or he paired with 87s/67s.
After his check on the river you have to know he played this way to passive to really have a hand and you have the best hand here.
Value-bet a lot smaller and just hopes he tries to hero call you.
 
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ScottishMatt

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Valuebetting here is out of the question. If we size it so he can call with a 7, then he can call with a T/Q and of those he has more combos. We would be valuetowning ourselves most of the time. Better to take showdown or turn our hand into a bluff.

I like the squeeze BTW. With CO's stack size we should be happy to stack off PF and if he flats we can auto profit by putting him in on every flop. We also have position on the player we are most likely to have dominated should he flat our squeeze.
 
stevenright

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Was there a purpose for that river bet?

You thought he could have JJ or a pair of 10 and would lay it down?
Because if not you are just missing value from 88 and smaller if you bet really small so he can hero call.
 
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A9ofHearts

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Was there a purpose for that river bet?

You thought he could have JJ or a pair of 10 and would lay it down?
Because if not you are just missing value from 88 and smaller if you bet really small so he can hero call.

I felt like he would be folding all of his Qx and 10x hands if I jammed the river. I can see that there would be some merit to checking, but I felt like he was going to be folding almost all of his checking range which would include Queens and 10s to an all in raise.
 
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A9ofHearts

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I don't get it. What are you wanting analysis on?

Flop play? River bluff? Street-by-street?

It might be a very good play, it might not. I think the most important factor here is your thought process concerning how you are planning to play the hand out. Why did you check the flop? Why call the turn? Why shove the river?

The reason I checked the flop was that I think most people are going to be checking back their entire range here and by checking back I can get more information on the turn. The main thing I want analysis on was the turn and river play. On the turn the sizing just didn't seem right for a king, I'm not really sure why, but it just didn't feel right.
When he checked the river I didn't really feel like he would be doing that with his Kx hands and I would be able to get him fold all of his Qx and 10x hands.
 
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baudib1

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If you're checking Kx+ on this flop you're doing something wrong.
 
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baudib1

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There's no reason for "feel" or guessing in this spot. Give villain a range of hands and figure out how many he is folding on the river.
 
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A9ofHearts

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Thanks a lot everyone for your help, I really appreciate it.
 
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micromoi

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why not to cbet so no need to put yourself in such a bad spot that wasnt a bluff u just gethim to fold a hand that u already beat. he is not folding any hand that got u beat so why betting u got showdown value so check it down. he got a pocket pair 66 or under thats why he folded.
 
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tiantianchen

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I don't get it. What are you wanting analysis on?

Flop play? River bluff? Street-by-street?

It might be a very good play, it might not. I think the most important factor here is your thought process concerning how you are planning to play the hand out. Why did you check the flop? Why call the turn? Why shove the river?

I agree. Seems standard. I don't like your river bet. But that's all. I think you can also call preflop if you have skill edge on the CO player.
 
jordanbillie

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My guess is that you actually checked back the river and changed the HH for this post?
 
Loonbat

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I see almost no value in a check on the flop with this hand. You mention checking back 100% of range and I feel the exact opposite - I like betting here with 100% of my range. It seems that your line here is fully transparent and as soon as you see the flop, you're representing an AK, QQ sort of hand. If this is the case, the river bet is poorly sized and isn't consistent with your story. I'd snap you off here with his AT given how the hand plays out.
 
A

A9ofHearts

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I see almost no value in a check on the flop with this hand. You mention checking back 100% of range and I feel the exact opposite - I like betting here with 100% of my range. It seems that your line here is fully transparent and as soon as you see the flop, you're representing an AK, QQ sort of hand. If this is the case, the river bet is poorly sized and isn't consistent with your story. I'd snap you off here with his AT given how the hand plays out.

I was saying he is probably going to be checking 100% of his range, not mine. I do agree with you that the hand was played poorly though.
 
bgomez89

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I like the squeeze but I'd pump it to $14 or so. I'm cbetting flop too
 
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