$100 NLHE 6-max: Overpair to board oop

slycbnew

slycbnew

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$100 NL HE 6-max: Overpair to board oop

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 18/12/3

Stats over 2k hands, seems like a standard reg. My notes say he likes to 2barrel alot, and squeezes alot pf, but I don't have any notes on how he plays in a float situation.

I ch/c'd turn w the intent of calling any river (2/3 psb or less) that didn't complete draws.

First - I don't like the turn ch/c line in retrospect, but maybe that's cuz of the river card. Thoughts?

Second - river completes both draws - clear fold?

poker stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

BB: $100.40 (100.4 bb)
Hero (UTG): $101.50 (101.5 bb)
MP: $108.65 (108.7 bb)
CO: $97 (97 bb)
BTN: $103 (103 bb)
SB: $107.05 (107.1 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is UTG with 9d 9c
Hero raises to $3.50, 2 folds, BTN calls $3.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($8.50) 4s 6d 2c (2 players)
Hero bets $5, BTN calls $5

Turn: ($18.50) 8c (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $12, Hero calls $12

River: ($42.50) 5c (2 players)
Hero ???
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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I think this is a really interesting hand. I have lots to say but for reasons mentioned in the other post I'm going to have to take a rain check on it. :)
 
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switch0723

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whats villains 3bet?

and whats your ep pfr?
 
shootwillus

shootwillus

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Ok, I am going to attempt to give me best analysis. Obviously, I am no expert, but...this is how we all learn, right?

I really hate this position. So, first...i'd look at what are we ahead of? I think we are beating any AX (that arent suited clubs), underpairs that havent made a set, and maybe some various weird hands that show up like QJ or some such thing.

We are behind anything that makes a straight, pocket 10's or better, the flush cards, and any set/two pair.

As the hand was played...you are either way ahead or way behind. God, i really hate this situation. This guy could so easily have AK/AQ/AJ and floated you just to put the pressure on. Or, he could have a really mean hand here.

Ok, so me personally...i give it up here. I think that if i decide i want to play till the end, I am going to check raise the river. I'd let the clock tick down and then check. I'd expect a bet and then really fast raise. Of course, all this does is beats the bluff and maybe something like 10's or jj. So, most of the time...like i said, I surrender.

Ok, the problem, as i see it is we basically have no clue what the villain has here. So, i would have think that the check-call would have been much better on the flop than the turn. If you follow that with a nice sized turn bet i think that reps serious strength. If your guy still calls you there...you are probably behind.

I think the other option might be to bet the flop bigger...it says "i have overs and I am ahead...call against the odds if you would like".

I wouldnt say that your play is bad...because, i have probably done this to myself a million times. Something I am starting to really thing about is "what are the ramifications of my actions?"....or, "how will i play this hand when my opponent does X"?

One of the problems is...you know when you checked turn the villain was going to bet. If you call, it doesnt tell you anything about his hand...so, the question becomes what about the river? Even a re-raise on the tunr might have been helpful. I like thinking to myself these things 1.) what am i ahead of 2.) behind? 3.) what does villain most likely have 4.) how do i find this information out 5.) and most importantly, what do i do if villain makes a move (bets, checks, all-in, etc.)

Its actually really difficult to get into the habit of asking all of those questions and the natural desire is to "just play". It is difficult for me anyway, and, i have been in this exact same spot myself....so, anyway I hope something in my ramblings has helped.
 
W

wirless

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really really tough spot to be in

from his lp 3bet 5%, fair to assume he calls 2bets with a range of med suited connectors, sm n med pairs, flats with some big pairs and re pops with JJ+

---
52,890,656 games 22.543 secs 2,346,211 games/sec
Board: 2c 6d 4s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.431% 33.53% 00.90% 17734940 476474.00
{ 22+, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+ }
Hand 1: 65.569% 64.67% 00.90% 34204754 476475.50 { 99 }

looking at pokerstove ur ahead of 'this' range on the flop, problem is how to trim it for fl and turn betting,

omgclayaiken advocates betting strange amounts against GOOD regs, so in this hand with a pre flop pot of 8.5 bet c-bet 1 or 12 for eg on this particular board where ur likely 2:1 ahead(pstove), see how they react to that

i think c/f or lead turn is best (might be wimpy to fold overpair on turn) , c/c turn as played leaves you with no additional information unless u know he ll lightly float and barell when checked to a high percentage...then ur good most times and plan is to c/c nearly any rvr bet and card then.
 
Sysvr4

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I ch/c'd turn w the intent of calling any river (2/3 psb or less) that didn't complete draws.

Sly, no offense, but that's generally not going to work OOP against an aggressive opponent. For one, you don't know exactly how many psb's you're going to have to call, and you're giving up control of the hand. Your villain has probably put you on two big cards by this point and will fire at will with position bet. His bet on the turn means absolutely nothing to me once you factor in what he thinks you have.

I'm sizing my flop bet a bit larger here. Then I'm bet/calling the turn (hrm, maybe bet/raising) and check/folding this river. If you had position, this would be a perfect spot to bet the turn and take a free showdown. Try to have position next time you play this hand ;)
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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I apparently didn't get so much time to respond to this, but briefly put:

I think check/calling the turn is the best play. I think check/folding most rivers (and this river especially) is good. The decision to bet or check the turn comes down to what kind of hands he can have and how he is likely to play them when we bet or check. By betting, we're only getting folds from hands that we have no interest in folding out. Checking will induce bluffs a fair share of the time and certainly often enough not to fold the turn, especially as he could be betting with the intention of checking back the river with some marginal made hands.

I understand being worried about giving a free card, but we're not giving up much, at least not in comparison to what we get. The argument for betting for protection works best when he peels really wide on the flop, because that's when his range will be weighted towards overcards. But that's also when checking to him will work best because that's when he'll be bluffing the most. If we check/call the turn, we run the risk of being bluffed off the river, but in my experience, the majority of the time that he's bluffing the turn he'll give up once we call.

If his preflop range was wider, I'd be all for betting again (because there are more combos of 8-X hands and the like that he could have) but here, we have a bluffcatcher, not a value-betting hand, because I don't think we have the best of it versus the range that he doesn't fold to a second barrel.
 
Tonky666

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think he maybe had a7 ..
maybe or he had higher pair
or maybe a set..
id bet maybe half pot for him not to push or maybe fold if he had set because of the possible straight
 
S

switch0723

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on most rivers i would say check-fold. But on this river it takes out a large heap of his value betting range, so his range is going to be really polarized to straight, sets and stuff that he floated with. I certaintly dont bet the river, but i honestly have no clue what to do on the river, edging towards folding rather than calling but its tight
 
slycbnew

slycbnew

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No offense taken, sysvr - I want feedback when I comment on something. :)

FP's described exactly why I ch/called the turn. To be clear, I think I'm ahead of Villain's range on the turn before I checked and after he bets. Why? Because his stats are reasonably close to mine (he cold calls a little more than I do, and he 3bets more than I do), and if I'm in his shoes I'll float that flop 95+% of the time to a cbet and will bet if checked to on the turn with a large portion of that range, including straights and sets obv, but also w any pair, any draw (incl gutshots), and sometimes w A high. I don't think he's got a bigger pocket pair than me cuz I think he would've 3bet pf (switch's question was spot on), I will almost never have TT+ in this situation. I'm trying to induce a bluff to get more value out of worse hands, though I'm also trying to see a showdown fairly cheaply.

The reason I posted this is largely because so many cards that come on the river will lead me to ch/f. Since that's the case, I wasn't sure ch/call on the turn made sense (and wasn't sure if I was being results oriented). On the river, I agree that ch/fold is correct, I think he's checking behind worse hands than 99 almost all the time (though I agree w switch that it's closer than you might think).
 
BelgoSuisse

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I like check calling turn. I dont think calling a river bet is that bad. There Will be bluffs in his range. Depends on what price he offers you
 
trashcan

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You played it optimally OOP imo, I will not fold to a bet on the river for sure
 
Z

Zybomb

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Maybe im in the minority here, but I can't understand why we are check calling the turn? Yes I understand most of the time we're folding out hands that we are way ahead of and not giving floaters/weakish hands a chance to put more $ into the pot, but this board just reeks of a spot that we are going to be double barreling often with air, so to balance out that, we simply have to continue to bet overpairs here as well. If we're raised it's an easy toss unless villain is exceptionally tricky which I'll assume at .5/1 NL we don't run into that many that fit that description and we get value out of lesser hands that call down putting us on double barreling overs and pairs that picked up backdoor draws. If opponent is the floaty type he could have 87 with a backdoor fd on the flop and peel one intending to bet if checked to. He now has TP and a gutshot and surely will continue. 6c Xc is a possiblility and also will surely continue. Villain can show with with pair/draw combos like 76 65, or non set pairs like 55 77 that will likely continue for another bet as well, so I think there's both balance and value to be gained by betting the turn, and in addition we also get some protection of our hand (the least important imo but still has to be considered)

the problem with your line against a semi aggressive opponent (i.e one that will not shut down the river) is that what cards do we really like on the river? There aren't many and there are certainly more cards that we don't like than we do, so we're often gunna be in a check/wtf spot or just c/fing so often.
 
F Paulsson

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I just don't think this is a good spot to double-barrel bluff, so for my part there's no need to balance my bluff double barrels with betting 99. I mean, there are hands that I'll double barrel as a bluff, here - but not that many, when I'm UTG.

My weakest hand on this board UTG is probably QJs. And I guess I'll fire again with that hoping to fold out some peeling aces or kings, but that's just four combos. And I wouldn't double barrel KQs or any ace.
 
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Zybomb

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I just don't think this is a good spot to double-barrel bluff, so for my part there's no need to balance my bluff double barrels with betting 99. I mean, there are hands that I'll double barrel as a bluff, here - but not that many, when I'm UTG.

My weakest hand on this board UTG is probably QJs. And I guess I'll fire again with that hoping to fold out some peeling aces or kings, but that's just four combos. And I wouldn't double barrel KQs or any ace.

This combined with your other post don't add up to me though.

If you think inferior pairs will fold to 2nd shell, hence the CC with 99 for bluff inducing/ pot control/ deception, then why wouldn't you be double barreling your entire range in this spot? If the answer is bc you think alot of these hands will peel again thus making the double barrel ineffective, then why aren't we betting our 99 for value on this turn?

I also think we are neglecting the important river aspect if we c/c this turn. We are not going to like the majority of cards that fall on the river, so if opponent is the type that doesn't give up easily, we're just setting ourselves up to be outplayed. I think by betting the turn then checking most rivers, it discourages opponent from bluffing, as it appears we are in check call mode on this river, and villain feels he will likely be looked up
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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I bluff with the four combos that I think have significant fold equity and I check everything better up to about KK (which I bet for value and probably fold to a raise).

I mean, don't get me wrong here. I think he can call with worse hands. But versus the part of his range that doesn't just fold when we bet, I think we're dogs. We can maybe leverage this to a winning strategy if we think he raises his better hands all the time (allowing us to correctly fold) and only calls with his worse ones, allowing us to handread well and extract another bet on the river, but I don't think that will be true on average and especially not OOP.

The double barrel bluff is ineffective, but that doesn't necessarily mean that betting 99 for value will be effective. He just has too much equity, even against 99, and THAT'S what makes double barreling ineffective.
 
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