I agree we can size up a bit OTT but I think more than 2/3 still chases too many hands away that we can get value from.
Thank you very much for your ideas and attention. You said that are many hands away that we can get value from: For example? I think about hands like 22-KK are paying OTF and folding OTT no matter your sizing, because the flop is 'double paired' (9AA), very dry. On the other side, hands that are clearly continuing are the Ax and A9 (almost none), A2, AK, AQ, AJ, all the Ax, precisely, so I believe that from these group of hands that pay us on the flop, we should not bet less than 100% pot because we are scared of 22-KK to be folding. 22 would never be folding, and 33-KK, if they decide to continue they must pay the iron price.
We should not be worried about draws, because draws are not going to continue paying, but if they do, put the ultimate price/risk upon them.
On the river, the board is not double paired as you suggested. I think this makes a huge difference. Do you still feel we shouldn't be raising boats here? I'd be worried about a 9,T,J type river and flat. But Ks and 3s and 4s etc seem like an auto raise. Just one pair of Aces on board. We block all but 2 A9 combos. Stats don't suggest he's limp calling A2o here UTG much so even if we give him the two suited combos that's not much to worry about. He should almost never have AK as played even though he did.
I don't understand your reasoning mate: first you said you could not size up OTT because you are going to make a lot of hands to fold, and now OTR do you really believe that this passive non-sense players is going to be paying you with anything but the nuts?
We cannot say that this guy should not have "AK" here, we should say we should not be raising our boat, yes, that's what I am saying, that's what I am always saying: we do not bet for value when we don't have any bluffs.
Which kindda of bluffs are you raising on this very particular scenario where you raised limper preflop to 4x, c-bet flop, c-bet turn and then you face a pretty sweet good price donk river, what types of bluffs are you raising here? I really would like to know.
He should never have it, but he has and you lost more than you should, if you had called you would have lost, but not so much.
The truth is that you are not protecting your SB's ranges versus idiots. Idiots can have anything on their ranges and we must seek for the most logical solution, ever since we are thinking about ranges, and they are thinking about specific hands:
Whale UTG would never be donking this river with anything but the nuts! If Whale/UTG doesn't hit a King on the river he would be checking back to you, most of times, because they are playing only their hands, nothing more. [/QUOTE]
Last point. This passive line is not indicitive of Vs stats. His aggression factor on every street is listed in my HUD. I didn't include it in OP but his AF for each street was 4 / 3 / 7 / 4. This is far from passive IMO. So he was probably planning to make his raise on the turn but got scared by the flush. Still doesn't explain the limp call pre and the flop x/c.
Sorry mate but I think you were a little out of line when you played this hand. If this guy is limping from UTG you don't have a proper sample of hands for this type of decisions:
you would need at least 500 hands played to consider any flop statistics, including AF, for the turn we need at least 2000 k hands, minimum, and on the river nevermind:
How this guy can be a passive whale and by the same time a regular of 100 NLHE I cannot understand.
Besides, it is a great flaw to make decisions based on small sample of hands, and in general, making decisions only based on the HUD tracker.
The fact that this guy is either passive or aggressive postflop is irrelevant because we don't have enough sample to do so. It is even more irrelevant because it limped preflop at a 6-MAX table and this is very uncommon.
Sometimes the variance is on the side of the fish for a couple of hands such as a volume of 100, 200 hands played, a recreational can have luck enough and be betting a lot of turns and rivers for value, thus, creating a false impression that the guy is aggressive postflop.
Before looking to statistics, remember your adversary is a non-brainer fish that is not thinking about anything but the absolute value of its hand.
Regards;
Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa