re: Poker & $100 NLHE 6-max: JJ tough decision vs 4bet
Originally Posted by Zybomb
It costs us $14 more into a $41, just shy of 3:1. Yea we're a 4:1 dog to AA-QQ, but if you consider implied odds, we have effective stacks of $75 left going to the flop. We should get that whole $75 if we flop a set by CRAI since villains bet will be roughly half his stack and will not fold an overpair for a min raise (particularly at low limits and nor should he). If this happens 1 out of every 8 times (roughly our chances of flopping a set) that means we lose the extra $14 seven times for a total of -$98, and we win $75+$41 (the pot before our $14 call)= $116 the eighth time for a net EV of +$18 making it +EV
I make this mistake, to bellive that call to 4bet it +EV , but it's rong.
Call here is - EV , because we not have enough implied odds to call for set mining.
Suppose we hit set on flop Jc 7h 3h , and villain have QQ+
Pokerstove say that we have only 89.89% chance to win this hand, and villain will win in 10.10% of time. Here we have one big problem. When villain win, i will lose 75E more!!
EV = 12% * ( 116E * 90% -75E* 10%) - 88% * 14E = -1,3E
12% = chance for set a flop
90% = precent for win the pot whit set on flop
116E = what we win if hit set
75E = extra money what we lose when villain make set on turn or river
10% = chance for villain to win hand if we make set on flop
88% = precent to villain to win hand (we not make set on flop and fold )
14$ = preflop call to 4bet;
I'm not clear what it's better line vs unknow UTG raise:
a. 3bet is standard
b. flat call (play JJ like a small pair)