$100 NLHE 6-max: JJ in 4bet pot on A high flop

B

bw07507

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$100 NL HE 6-max: JJ in 4bet pot on A high flop

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 21/15/2.2

Lately I've been getting into these spots since FT regs seem to love to flat 4bets. Villains 3bet is 8.1% and 9% from the button, so I decide to just 4bet and stack JJ, but of course, he flats. Whats my plan on this flop??

Full Tilt, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

BB: $121.05 (121.1 bb)
UTG: $66.85 (66.9 bb)
Hero (MP): $142.20 (142.2 bb)
CO: $164.65 (164.7 bb)
BTN: $100 (100 bb)
SB: $200.50 (200.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP with J
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J
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UTG folds, Hero raises to $3.50, CO folds, BTN raises to $12, 2 folds, Hero raises to $26, BTN calls $14

Flop: ($53.50) 3
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5
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A
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(2 players)
Hero ?
 
BelgoSuisse

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Your 4bet is a little bit on the small side, isn't it? I think I make it $30 in this spot.

I have no real clue what to do in this spot. check folding comes to mind, even if it feels a little weak.
 
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bw07507

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Your 4bet is a little bit on the small side, isn't it? I think I make it $30 in this spot.

I have no real clue what to do in this spot. check folding comes to mind, even if it feels a little weak.

yea, you're right. I usually 4bet to 2.4x the 3bet. For some reason i was thinking 2x his bet would be $22 + $4 would = $26. I prob make everything easier by 4betting to $29.
 
F Paulsson

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Check/folding is almost certainly the best play here. Yeah, feels ultraweak, but what other line can we take? We can't get paid by worse (TT is hardly peeling this flop) and he's very unlikely to have better and fold. Don't take this to mean that I would check/fold KK, by the way, because card-removal effects makes KK a much, much stronger hand than JJ on this board (makes AK less likely, drastically increases chance of him having JJ).

Besides, checking an ace-high dry flop in a 4-bet pot isn't so bad anyway. You're going to want to do this with AA/AK some of the time too, to try to induce bluffs. Some non-zero percent of the time, you'll get all the way to showdown without putting any more money in and win. Also some non-zero percent of the time, he'll check back the flop and you turn a set. But I don't think there's any way for you to win any money off of him in this pot; serious reverse implied odds situation.
 
Deco

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I don't think I like our 4bet preflop.
We may be besting his 3bet range but I cant see us being ahead of his shove/call4bet range.
I'd much rather save the 4betting for KK+ AK and air, heck maybe even QQ.
JJ is were I'd draw the line unless I have some 3bet/4bet history with this guy.
I'd call and take one off on most flops.

As played we have to check/fold anytime an Ace comes down as a missed AK is all were really beating in these pots.
 
BelgoSuisse

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I don't think I like our 4bet preflop.

iirc, BW is 4bet bluffing a decent amount, so he has to widen his value range too in order to defend against light 5bet shoves. Pretty sure he intends to call a shove with JJ here.
 
Deco

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iirc, BW is 4bet bluffing a decent amount, so he has to widen his value range too in order to defend against light 5bet shoves.

Why give our opponent credit for this until we've seen their capable of light 5betting?
 
BelgoSuisse

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Why give our opponent credit for this until we've seen their capable of light 5betting?

We don't need to. His 3bet % is enough info.

If villain 5bet shoves AK,QQ+ for value and folds everything else, that's a 2.6% range, and since he 3bets 9%, that means he folds 71% of his 3betting range.

When he folds, we win $17. When he shoves and we call, we have 36% equity against { QQ+, AKs, AKo } of a $200 pot = $72, for which we pay an extra $96.5, so we loose $24.5.

So in average, we win $17 x 0.71 - $24.5 x 0.29 = $5 . It's even more profitable when he 5bet shoves light with hands we dominate, obviously.

Of course, it becomes a lot harder when villain decides to flat our 4bet with position on us. Which is why we need to 4bet bigger. 4bet shoving would be +EV here, but that we don't shove in order to induce some bluff to make this even better. Although against some players 4bet shoving would be sexy because he could put you squarely on AK and decide to call with a small pocket pair.
 
Deco

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We don't need to. His 3bet % is enough info.

If villain 5bet shoves AK,QQ+ for value and folds everything else, that's a 2.6% range, and since he 3bets 9%, that means he folds 71% of his 3betting range.

When he folds, we win $17. When he shoves and we call, we have 36% equity against { QQ+, AKs, AKo } of a $200 pot = $72, for which we pay an extra $96.5, so we loose $24.5.

So in average, we win $17 x 0.71 - $24.5 x 0.29 = $5 . It's even more profitable when he 5bet shoves light with hands we dominate, obviously.

Of course, it becomes a lot harder when villain decides to flat our 4bet with position on us. Which is why we need to 4bet bigger. 4bet shoving would be +EV here, but that we don't shove in order to induce some bluff to make this even better. Although against some players 4bet shoving would be sexy because he could put you squarely on AK and decide to call with a small pocket pair.

I agree with all of that, merely my point is that this is turning out similar to the old 3betting KQ from the blinds against your standards tags open.
Would we not get more value calling and leave the 4bet bluffs for when we have complete air?
If not how is this different to the KQ scenario?
 
BelgoSuisse

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Would we not get more value calling and leave the 4bet bluffs for when we have complete air?

BW is not 4bet bluffing JJ here. He intends to call a shove. It's a value bet.

Calling oop is going to be super hard to play postflop and chances are we'll spew reverse implied odds right and left.
 
BelgoSuisse

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Deco, you play 25nl, right? At least that's what your profile says.

As such, you don't get to play against the kind of aggro 3betters that BW meets at 100nl+ 6max. When villains open up their 3betting range, you have to bluff back some, but also to open up your value 4betting range to answer that. That means JJ becomes part of it.
 
Deco

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Deco, you play 25nl, right? At least that's what your profile says.

As such, you don't get to play against the kind of aggro 3betters that BW meets at 100nl+ 6max. When villains open up their 3betting range, you have to bluff back some, but also to open up your value 4betting range to answer that. That means JJ becomes part of it.

50NL now:)

I've played in games with aggressive 3betters, although truth be told at 50NL I usually have the luxury of finding a better table.
I just don't like 4betting this as standard. I will happily 4bet/call JJ if I have a 3bet/4bet dynamic with the player and its a safe presumption their gunna shove light but until then 90% of the time my hand is going to be the equivalent of having 22 against their range.

I can see were your coming from and my view is by no means closed on this, I persist on posting as I'm hoping I am wrong as calling with JJ here is a tricky spot but I'm yet to be convinced 4betting JJ is the way.

How is this different to 3betting KQ in the blinds against a standard TAG raising from the button which we all know is terrible and I am (perhaps mistakingly) seeing this as the 4bet equivalent?
An explanation on that and more consensus on your view should alter my stubborn opinion on this;)

Also how many hands we got on this 3bet stat?
Most times I am in a similar situation I'm not going to have enough hands to make a firm decision that they love to 3bet the button with 10% of their range
 
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I've played in games with aggressive 3betters, although truth be told at 50NL I usually have the luxury of finding a better table.
I just don't like 4betting this as standard. I will happily 4bet/call JJ if I have a 3bet/4bet dynamic with the player and its a safe presumption their gunna shove light but until then 90% of the time my hand is going to be the equivalent of having 22 against their range.

I can see were your coming from and my view is by no means closed on this, I persist on posting as I'm hoping I am wrong as calling with JJ here is a tricky spot but I'm yet to be convinced 4betting JJ is the way.

How is this different to 3betting KQ in the blinds against a standard TAG raising from the button which we all know is terrible and I am (perhaps mistakingly) seeing this as the 4bet equivalent?
An explanation on that and more consensus on your view should alter my stubborn opinion on this;)

Also how many hands we got on this 3bet stat?
Most times I am in a similar situation I'm not going to have enough hands to make a firm decision that they love to 3bet the button with 10% of their range

First of all, i am not turning my hand into a bluff. I'm snap calling if villain shoves.

I datamine, so i have over 2k hands on villain here. Flatting the 3bet oop is bad imo b/c its going to be incredibly difficult to play vs a difficult villain. If we call and there is an A, K, or Q on the board do we just ch/f?? If we are just ch/f if an over comes, our play becomes extremely exploitable since villain can 3bet all sorts of crap and take it down with a cbet pretty much every time. What if we flop all unders? Do we ch/call?? If the flop is all unders and we are ch/jamming then we may aswell have gotten it in preflop.
 
-Phil Ivey27

-Phil Ivey27

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Well I don't understand calling immediatly if he shoves...

Is it impossible that the villain has picked up QQ, KK, or AA?

Only a guy with a very good read on you, or a maniac would shove with worse in this situation. Excluding AK which you are a slight favorite against.

So when this villain 3 bet, I completely understand a four bet, although the amount of the raise makes no sense to me. I mean clearly if your planning on calling his all in shove then why is your raise so weak? If you really think your hand is best then raise alot more, 50% of the time the flop will have an overcard and then you won't know where your at.

This raise also kind of looks like AA and so if the villain shoves on you seeing this raise size, don't you give him credit for a hand?

Now if I 3 bet with any type of hand, suited connector, pocket pair tens and below, KQ, AQ, im getting great odds to call unless I believe I am dominated. $14 more to call and there is $40 in the pot.

Another reason to raise much more while 4 betting is that you are out of position! Now you have no clue what so ever if the flop hit your opponent.

Now, due to being out of position and not raising enough you have a fairly wide range of hands you may be up against.

Even so, I have to c-bet this flop about $30.

This flop may have hit him, and it may have not, there's really only one way to find out, with still a chance to win the pot.

I believe checking here is an automatic bet from him and a fold from you, and there's obviously no room for a check raise, so you would automatically lose the hand.

I would try and give myself a chance and c-bet repping AK, with a bet such as $30 even if he thinks you may have JJ,QQ,KK, without a very good hand he can not raise you with such a big pot.
 
BelgoSuisse

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Well I don't understand calling immediatly if he shoves...

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.190% 35.98% 00.21% 125683776 731868.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 63.810% 63.60% 00.21% 222162504 731868.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

which means if we play for stacks against a super premium range, we have $72 of equity in the $200 pot. Once we have committed $26 already out of an effective stack of $100, calling or folding are equivalent if villain's range is strictly the above. If there's any hint of a chance that he shoves lighter, it's a super easy call.

We need a read that he does not 5bet AK to make this a fold, and villains who 3bet 9% on the BTN always 5bet AK here.
 
BelgoSuisse

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Back to the OP, i think check-folding has merit.

As an alternative, given that we have made kind of a gay 4bet and given villain super tempting odds which weakens his flatting range, i might like a cbet half pot, fold to aggression.
 
-Phil Ivey27

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equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.190% 35.98% 00.21% 125683776 731868.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 63.810% 63.60% 00.21% 222162504 731868.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

which means if we play for stacks against a super premium range, we have $72 of equity in the $200 pot. Once we have committed $26 already out of an effective stack of $100, calling or folding are equivalent if villain's range is strictly the above. If there's any hint of a chance that he shoves lighter, it's a super easy call.

We need a read that he does not 5bet AK to make this a fold, and villains who 3bet 9% on the BTN always 5bet AK here.

Personally im more so of a feel guy than a math guy, so I would not make my decision based on the above statistics.

I believe you don't need a specific read to show he does not 5 bet with AK.

Because the hands he may generally have is AK, QQ, KK, and AA.

And with these hands you are dominated by 3 of them, and only a slight favorite with one.
 
-Phil Ivey27

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Back to the OP, i think check-folding has merit.

As an alternative, given that we have made kind of a gay 4bet and given villain super tempting odds which weakens his flatting range, i might like a cbet half pot, fold to aggression.

^^ I agree with this.
 
BelgoSuisse

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Personally im more so of a feel guy than a math guy, so I would not make my decision based on the above statistics.

Preflop 3bet/4bet/5bet game is purely mathematical once you have decent estimates of villain's nbet percentages. Relying on feel instead of equities versus ranges is just like burning $100 bills. Fun, but expensive. :D
 
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