$100 NLHE 6-max: J8s is too pretty to fold because I have awesome reads on villain.

c9h13no3

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$100 NL HE 6-max: J8s is too pretty to fold because I have awesome reads on villain.

Reads: None, first hand at the table and villain is a complete unknown.

**** these guys, they just never have anything.

Ultimate Bet, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players

MP: $148.48 (148.5 bb)
CO: $39.34 (39.3 bb)
BTN: $212 (212 bb)
SB: $73.67 (73.7 bb)
Hero (BB): $100 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with J8
2 folds, BTN raises to $2, SB folds, Hero raises to $7.50, BTN raises to $19, Hero raises to $100 and is all-in
 
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BelgoSuisse

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Can't really comment on that one as I don't play 6max often enough to get a feeling of proper preflop play.

I'm pretty sure doing this at 100nl FR is -EV because unknows don't 4bet light often enough. Looks very tilty to me.
 
c9h13no3

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What I was trying to get you guys to notice here is there's more information that we can get from a hand than just HUD stats & the cards on the board. We have 3 peices of information, and we're giving villain some information. Stats only tell a small part of the story.

Information Villain Has about Us:
1) We bought in for 100 big blinds.
2) We have defended our blind with a 3-bet.
3) We didn't post the big blind out of turn in order to play as soon as we sat down.

What can villain conclude about us based on this information?

Information We Have:

1) Villain has 212 big blinds in his stack.
2) Villain min-raised preflop on the button.
3) Villain has 4-bet to exactly 2.5 times my 3-bet, fairly quickly (4-6 seconds.)

What can we conclude about villain from this information? Is this information indicating that villain can possibly 4-bet light? Or is villain a fish? Also, note there is a bet pot button & min-raise button at UB.
 
eagle jim

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I think if I am the button in this hand, with no other reads on you, I am folding everything but AA,KK here, and probably think a long time before calling with KK
 
Chris_TC

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Spew vs. most players, especially unknowns.
 
Steveg1976

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What I was trying to get you guys to notice here is there's more information that we can get from a hand than just HUD stats & the cards on the board. We have 3 peices of information, and we're giving villain some information. Stats only tell a small part of the story.

Information Villain Has about Us:
1) We bought in for 100 big blinds.
2) We have defended our blind with a 3-bet.
3) We didn't post the big blind out of turn in order to play as soon as we sat down.

What can villain conclude about us based on this information?

Information We Have:
1) Villain has 212 big blinds in his stack.
2) Villain min-raised preflop on the button.
3) Villain has 4-bet to exactly 2.5 times my 3-bet, fairly quickly (4-6 seconds.)

What can we conclude about villain from this information? Is this information indicating that villain can possibly 4-bet light? Or is villain a fish? Also, note there is a bet pot button & min-raise button at UB.

I will play along and offer a donkeys point of view. By min raising and 3 betting as he did, is appears he might be stealing aginnst an over defendeing BB. Your shove here as you are unknown can only be AA's in the villians eyes, so you essentially cutting off all of his possible moves and taking away his positional advantage, "turnuing your cards face up" even though you don't have AA as that should be the only hand he can call with.

1. I don't play these stakes
2. I don't play 6 max
3. I don't think I have the stones to make this play
4. I am Aggro calling station at the micro limits

so take it for what it's worth. But maybe it will spark a discussion.
 
Steveg1976

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wat?

preflop overbet shoving is typically AK, not AA.

See points #1-4 above ;)

Edit: then C9 with the shove has elliminated villian calling with any nonpaired hands if the villian puts him on AK, but might also fold JJ or even QQ against AK I guess, so instead of AA, he will only called by AA, KK's which still is a tiny portion of a buttons raise/3bet range against an unknown BB.
 
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jewboy07

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i like it if you have more information on a player but against a complete unknown this cant be good
 
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So much of the 'info' that you talk about is pretty basic and meaningless. Buying in for 100bbs... probably means you're not a donk on his last $. Not posting...at $100 nl pretty standard. Min raising on the button...pretty weak, but I've seen vids where the guy advocates 2.5x. His 4 bet sizing is actually good at 2.5x.

So your point? Because your play is spew.
 
c9h13no3

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What I hear: Wah wah wah, this guy is a complete unknown, blah blah, you just can't 5-bet bluff complete unknowns.

I'm not trying to say this isn't spew. I'm trying to get you guys to look at information other than HUD stats and put together a decision.

GrantGreen said:
So much of the 'info' that you talk about is pretty basic and meaningless. Buying in for 100bbs... probably means you're not a donk on his last $. Not posting...at $100 nl pretty standard. Min raising on the button...pretty weak, but I've seen vids where the guy advocates 2.5x. His 4 bet sizing is actually good at 2.5x.
OMFG you are there, you just can't put 2+2 together to make 4.

Min raising on the button...pretty weak, but I've seen vids where the guy advocates 2.5x.
This is actually a semi-common play, Zachvac has been using this a lot with some degree of success at full ring. I see regs experiment with their preflop steals being smaller. Which means....
His 4 bet sizing is actually good at 2.5x.
This means something too! Do fish who have aces size their 4-bets correctly? Or do thinking players who read forums & watch poker videos size their 4-bets correctly? THIS GIVES YOU INFORMATION! What do regs who know about 4-betting small know? Why do they 4-bet to 2.5x? How can we exploit that they know this?
 
vanquish

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What I hear: Wah wah wah, this guy is a complete unknown, blah blah, you just can't 5-bet bluff complete unknowns.

I'm not trying to say this isn't spew. I'm trying to get you guys to look at information other than HUD stats and put together a decision.

yea i pretty much did all of that and it seems like you're getting leveraged by his 4bet and there's really not much you can do about that. pretty sure EV wise its not very sound, you're winning $19 every time he folds and you really only have like 28% equity the times he calls, so i dunno.

wah wah math calculations wah wah i have not played a game other than HU in a long time and what i'm saying can be conceivably very wrong
 
blankoblanco

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i think you're getting leveraged too hard here. sure, the fact that he has some chips and made it 2.5x would both lead me to believe that he's capable of 4betting light (also there's a theorem of sorts vanessa selbst has where the first 4bet between good aggressive players at 6max or HU is a bluff a really high % of the time). however the fact that it started with a minraise makes stacks kinda crappy for it

in normal circumstances, he'd raise to maybe 3, you'd 3bet to 10 or 11, he'd 4bet to 25 or 26, then you'd shove. your fold equity is almost identical to what it is when he makes it 19 in this situation, because he's almost always either 4betting light and easily folding or 4betting for value and doubtfully folding. so the fact that there's like 5 or 6 BBs less for you to steal than there normally would be is like a pure disadvantage for you. and probably a significant one. so basically i think there are loads of better spots where the reward is greater vs. what you're risking, and where it's not your first hand at the table
 
Stick66

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OK. I'll play along. I play 50NL FR. So if I say something wrong, go easy on me.
What I was trying to get you guys to notice here is there's more information that we can get from a hand than just HUD stats & the cards on the board. We have 3 pieces of information, and we're giving villain some information. Stats only tell a small part of the story.

Information Villain Has about Us: So he might think that we ...
1) We bought in for 100 big blinds. Are somewhat smart
2) We have defended our blind with a 3-bet. Have either a decent hand or are trying to steal the weak raise.
3) We didn't post the big blind out of turn in order to play as soon as we sat down. Again, we are somewhat smart.

What can villain conclude about us based on this information? That we aren't a complete donk, maybe?

Information We Have:
1) Villain has 212 big blinds in his stack. He probably stacked the last player who sat in your seat.
2) Villain min-raised preflop on the button. Without a history on him, we don't know if he is building a pot with a playable hand, weakly stealing, or incorrectly value raising a strong hand.
3) Villain has 4-bet to exactly 2.5 times my 3-bet, fairly quickly (4-6 seconds.) He either has a very playable hand and has a plan, has datamined you or bought a DB with you in it and knows you like to defend your blinds or 3-bet steal, or is a bot with precise betting actions.

What can we conclude about villain from this information? Is this information indicating that villain can possibly 4-bet light? Or is villain a fish? Also, note there is a bet pot button & min-raise button at UB. Maybe a massive multi-tabler with a big reliance on AHK? How about a lower stakes player taking a shot at 100NL without a clue?
 
WVHillbilly

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With all the datamining services out there, I think it's a mistake to think that just because you know nothing about him that he also knows nothing about you. He could easily have 10K hands on you.
 
1MoreCard

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I personally don't have it me to make this play too often, but can attest to its effectiveness.

You are an unknown, (assumed, but could be wrong), and on the first hand, you move your entire stack in.

It is mentioned that it is -EV in some people's opinions, but you are only considering this one hand.

To see the potential +EV, look at this play this way.

The player calls:

1. The table sees your holding and "Notes" you as a Maniac Donk. This will get you enough future action to potentially win you far more than the $100 you might lose in this hand.
2. You suck out and win the hand. The table still sees your cards, but now you not only doubled your money the first hand, but you set yourself up for a lot of action to win even more.

The Player Folds:

1. He's pretty much folding anything but AA, KK and maybe QQ, unless he's a donk. Assuming he earned his stack, he folds here because he's at a "Good" table and won't risk too much because he can grind it out to continue to profit.
2. He either folds a big hand, or has to give up on a steal. Either way, he won't be happy and will put you on his list as players to target. He's obviously the player at the table you want to play with because he has the biggest stack.

Both 1 and 2 for if he folds will also give you a table image you can profit from IMO.

If the player folded here, this is one situation that I think it is a must "Show". A fold and a "Show" of the J8 would set you up for an unbelievably profitable session I would think.

Just my thoughts....
 
Tygran

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This is actually a semi-common play, Zachvac has been using this a lot with some degree of success at full ring. I see regs experiment with their preflop steals being smaller. Which means....This means something too! Do fish who have aces size their 4-bets correctly? Or do thinking players who read forums & watch poker videos size their 4-bets correctly? THIS GIVES YOU INFORMATION! What do regs who know about 4-betting small know? Why do they 4-bet to 2.5x? How can we exploit that they know this?


I'll stab...

a small 4b is often advocated as opposed to a large one as a resteal against a light blind defender who is 3betting you. and it works, very well, so long as it's not overused. Many, many players simply give up as soon as they get 4b and don't pay any attention to the size. the plan is usually "4b small and fold to shove since [insert large number here]% of players immediately fold to the 4b and only continue with super premiums."

therefore... a small 4b is more likely to be weak than strong? unless of course we go up a level of thinking and he knows you know that and will interpret it that way of course... (reasonably unlikely since he's an unknown to you)

I think I like this play. You are right that a competent reg is often going to 1) size correctly 2) be more apt to use aggression with a crap hand early in a session when he will get more benefit of the doubt since he is unknown.


also... i'm finding a min bet steal to work very well against certain player types at FR as well.. not that terribly unusual a play.
 
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c9h13no3

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therefore... a small 4b is more likely to be weak than strong? unless of course we go up a level of thinking and he knows you know that and will interpret it that way of course... (reasonably unlikely since he's an unknown to you)

I think I like this play. You are right that a competent reg is often going to 1) size correctly 2) be more apt to use aggression with a crap hand early in a session when he will get more benefit of the doubt since he is unknown.

also... i'm finding a min bet steal to work very well against certain player types at FR as well.. not that terribly unusual a play.
Bam. This post is money. We give villain every indication that we're a solid player, and villain's actions give us every indication that he knows about 4-betting light.

Yes, the play is probably not so great due to how small his 4-bet is. We have to risk 100$ to win 19.50$. If he calls with JJ+/AK, that's 3% of hands. And against that range, J8s has 27% equity. So some math (which is probably wrong)...

0.27*(200.50) - 100 = -$45.9 (expectation when called)
+$19.50 (expectation when he folds)

0 = x*19.50 + (1-x)*(-45.9)
x = 70%

So villain's gotta be 4-betting light ~70% of the time, which is a lot. After I reviewed the session I realized his min-raise + small 4-bet made the play not so good because there's not much $ to win. But what I do think is super important is the thought process I took to make this play.

I think villain's min-raise combined with the text-book size 4-bet gives him away as a player who reads poker forums & knows about 4-betting light. And he just cannot give me credit for a light 5-bet knowing nothing about me (can you ever give anyone credit for a light 5-bet?), so he's got to fold all but JJ+/AK. Combine this with his super wide button stealing range (when you're min-raising buttons, you're doing it a lot), and the fact that early 4-bets get more respect, and I think the play starts to become break even.

FWIW, I think I can get him to fold close to 70% of the time. So while I don't think this play is ever going to be super profitable, I do think its FAR FAR less spewy than people are making this out to be, and there are MUCH bigger leaks you could have preflop.

Sometimes I post hands where I'm genuinely curious if I took the best line. This is not one of those hands. Here I was just hoping to spark some discussion about noticing crap other than just "OMG 23/19/4.2, so I tree bet preeee". Results, obviously:

Hero raises [$6.50 USD]
Villain raises [$17.00 USD]
Hero raises [$92.50 USD]
Villain folds
Hero wins $81.00 USD
Hero wins $38.50 USD from main pot
 
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Chris_TC

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I'm not trying to say this isn't spew. I'm trying to get you guys to look at information other than HUD stats and put together a decision.
The "information" you gave is pretty much worthless when facing a 4-bet because the 4-bet is for value almost every single time.

So villain's gotta be 4-betting light ~70% of the time, which is a lot.
Maybe you should stop thinking of it in terms of 4-betting "light". When I 4-bet 99 I'm 4-betting light, but that doesn't mean I won't call your shove.

FWIW, I think I can get him to fold close to 70% of the time. So while I don't think this play is ever going to be super profitable
70% of the time? Wow, you're so far off. Try 20-30%. If that.
 
Chris_TC

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Um, no. This couldn't be more wrong, I don't care what stakes you play.
Good, then I advise you to make this play every single time vs. unknowns and find out how you fare.
 
Steveg1976

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C9 - thank you for posting this. Spew or not, I like being introduced to alternate ways of thinking about hands and information that is available then the standard, "he steals 37% from button and his vpip is 25..." type stuff.
 
vanquish

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you realize there's also a theorem that says that the guy will be willing to look you up a lot lighter because he's already 4bet and it's the first hand he's ever played against you, right? so even if he decided to 4bet 99 here, he's probably still calling your shove, just because him folding here provides him with virtually no information about your range, whereas his 4b/fold provides you with information about him. so his 4b/folding frequency here really is not as high as you think, imo. your dynamic of "well his first 4bet is going to be a light 4bet a really high % of the time" is just a leveling match against "well he 4bet small for value, because he wants to induce a reshove from u" or "well since he's already 4bet, he's not folding any good hands to you because you're an unknown to him" etc

i think the most important thing is the betsizing and the leverage he's getting on you, which makes this a sucky spot
 
zachvac

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I'll stab...

a small 4b is often advocated as opposed to a large one as a resteal against a light blind defender who is 3betting you. and it works, very well, so long as it's not overused. Many, many players simply give up as soon as they get 4b and don't pay any attention to the size. the plan is usually "4b small and fold to shove since [insert large number here]% of players immediately fold to the 4b and only continue with super premiums."

therefore... a small 4b is more likely to be weak than strong? unless of course we go up a level of thinking and he knows you know that and will interpret it that way of course... (reasonably unlikely since he's an unknown to you)

I think I like this play. You are right that a competent reg is often going to 1) size correctly 2) be more apt to use aggression with a crap hand early in a session when he will get more benefit of the doubt since he is unknown.

I don't see how 2.5x is small. Among thinking solid players it's pretty standard, and for good reason. Flatting it is pretty much always incorrect (unless the 4-better is going to have specific leaks to be exploited, but again we're talking about a solid 4-better). So basically they leverage your entire stack by risking the minimum. They can fold if you shove and they have air and they can call if they have a monster. It gives a combination of bad odds on the bluff as well as a cheap bluff themselves.

So why does that mean that 2.5x is likely to be 4-bet bluff? The only indication would be that it's his first hand at the table and the first 3-bet is usually a bluff (BUT the reason for this is most villains don't play back first hand). So basically you're leveling here and hoping that he does not have a hand (because I think we both agree that no matter what level he's on he does this with a monster). So you've gotta hope that he really is thinking on a level that allows him to 4-bet light AND that he does not have a hand. Add onto that the fact that you're getting awful odds on your shove here and I just think this is a fold.
 
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